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GABALA RADAR STATION: RUSSIA'S DARYAL GAMBIT
Today's Zaman
March 6 2012
Turkey
In recent days, the Russian media, with references to anonymous
sources in the Russian Defense Ministry, has published reports that
Baku wants to increase the annual lease payment for Gabala Radar
Station from $7 million to $300 million. Gabala Radar Station is a
Daryal-type bistatic phased-array early warning radar, which Azerbaijan
has leased to Russia until 2012.
After regaining independence in 1991, Azerbaijan banished all Russian
military facilities from its territory. Only the Gabala Radar Station
remained, classified under "no status." Installed to monitor the
ballistic missiles between continents, the station has the capacity
to determine every such move in the southern hemisphere.
Nonetheless, Azerbaijan and Russia signed an agreement 'On status,
principles and conditions of use of the Gabala radar station
(Daryal)' in Moscow on 25 January 2002, establishing the station as
an information-analysis center, owned by Azerbaijan and leased to
Russia for a ten year period (until December 2012), with a possible
extension of the lease. Russia has been in talks with Azerbaijan
since mid-2011, hoping to extend the lease on this key station in
its ballistic missile early warning system (BMEWS) to 2025.
Now, the interesting thing is that some Russian media outlets are
claiming that Azerbaijan is dramatically increasing the cost of the
lease agreement because it wants to take an anti-Iran stance.
Obviously, here is no ground to use Gabala Radar Station against
Iran by Azerbaijan, either Russia and US have more capable
similar stations. It seems that every little political or military
development is being linked to the situation in Iran, no matter
tenuous the connection, in order to dramatize the current state of
affairs. However, a more detailed analysis reveals a different story.
First of all, the increase in the rent is not a maneuver against either
Russia or Iran. For starters, when Azerbaijan makes any military
purchase, from Russia or any other country, it keeps details of the
negotiations private until all questions have been resolved.
Moreover, there are no grounds for the parallels that are being
drawn between the risk of operation against Iran by US/Israel and the
settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh;
claims that Baku is seeking concessions from Russia in this direction
are baseless- over the past decade, Baku has not used Gabala as a
tool to negotiate greater neutrality on Moscow's part regarding the
Karabakh conflict.
Secondly, Gabala is a rapidly developing region that has invested
heavily in tourism over recent years, and has changed a great deal
since the Soviet era. The developing tourism facilities in Gabala
are suffering because of the radar station due to a very high
electro-magnetic impulse, and Azerbaijan is losing money every year.
The losses have to be recouped; especially if we take into
consideration that due to inflation $7 million today is not the same
as in 2002. Of course, Azerbaijan has another reason to be dissatisfied
with the current arrangement, which is the fact that Russia, according
to official sources, is planning to spend 23 trillion rubles ($770
billion) on arms between now and 2020. In this light, the proposed
rent hike seems less unreasonable.
On the other hand, the Gabala radar station is often the subject of
ecological and environmental concern. The station occupies some 210
hectares of land; in addition, an adjacent area of 30 hectares was
deforested in order to lay high-voltage lines to supply the station
with electric power. The surrounding forests are now dying due to the
decreased levels of groundwater. The objections by the Azerbaijani
opposition and various environmental movements are frequently voiced
in the Azerbaijani press. From the economic standpoint, without the
station, Gabala would be a more popular tourist destination, and
tourism would bring in money. Another key issue here is public health.
Azerbaijan is not considering transferring the station to a different
location, nor is it interested in building a new one. It is only
logical that government is more interested in developing tourism,
and so Western investment in a radar station in Azerbaijan is unlikely.
On several occasions, the media has drawn comparisons between Baikonur
spaceport in Kazakhstan, and Gabala, arguing, given that since the
start of 2011 Russia has paid Kazakhstan $56 million for a lease
on Baikonur spaceport, $300 million for Gabala is unacceptable. But
Baikonur spaceport is not located in an area of tourism; it is in the
middle of the desert. More importantly, the health risks are greater in
Gabala, which is much more densely populated. In addition, some Russian
sources have suggested that Moscow has no interest in modernizing or
paying more for Gabala, on the grounds that the Voronezh-class radar
(in Armavir, the Black Sea area) that is currently operating in test
mode is significantly more advanced than the previous generation of
radars. Nonetheless, the Gabala radar station remains of interest
to Russians, simply because it allows them to maintain a physical
presence in Azerbaijan.
For Azerbaijan, the future of the radar remains a purely economic
matter, and Baku refutes any links to partisan speculation or rumor.
It is no secret that Iran is trying to turn its battle with Israel/US
over to Azerbaijani territory, using fundamentalist groups and
sponsoring media outlets. But interestingly, the material on Gabala has
been leaked by some Russian media sources. Nevertheless, playing games
with the media means taking the unethical path, i.e. leaking privileged
information pertaining to bilateral negotiations. While Iran's
previous behavior sought to create problems for Azerbaijan in its
relations with the US and other Western countries, it is now seeking
to destabilize Russia-Azerbaijan relations. The remaining question is,
in whose interest are these debates on the Gabala Radar Station? On
one hand it is understandable that Moscow is dissatisfied, however it
seems that for Moscow this is more than a matter of economics. The
situation brings to mind the Azerbaijani proverb, "Save me from my
friends, I'm capable of fighting with my enemies." The Daryal gambit
represents part of a broader, long-term geopolitical strategy.
Today's Zaman
March 6 2012
Turkey
In recent days, the Russian media, with references to anonymous
sources in the Russian Defense Ministry, has published reports that
Baku wants to increase the annual lease payment for Gabala Radar
Station from $7 million to $300 million. Gabala Radar Station is a
Daryal-type bistatic phased-array early warning radar, which Azerbaijan
has leased to Russia until 2012.
After regaining independence in 1991, Azerbaijan banished all Russian
military facilities from its territory. Only the Gabala Radar Station
remained, classified under "no status." Installed to monitor the
ballistic missiles between continents, the station has the capacity
to determine every such move in the southern hemisphere.
Nonetheless, Azerbaijan and Russia signed an agreement 'On status,
principles and conditions of use of the Gabala radar station
(Daryal)' in Moscow on 25 January 2002, establishing the station as
an information-analysis center, owned by Azerbaijan and leased to
Russia for a ten year period (until December 2012), with a possible
extension of the lease. Russia has been in talks with Azerbaijan
since mid-2011, hoping to extend the lease on this key station in
its ballistic missile early warning system (BMEWS) to 2025.
Now, the interesting thing is that some Russian media outlets are
claiming that Azerbaijan is dramatically increasing the cost of the
lease agreement because it wants to take an anti-Iran stance.
Obviously, here is no ground to use Gabala Radar Station against
Iran by Azerbaijan, either Russia and US have more capable
similar stations. It seems that every little political or military
development is being linked to the situation in Iran, no matter
tenuous the connection, in order to dramatize the current state of
affairs. However, a more detailed analysis reveals a different story.
First of all, the increase in the rent is not a maneuver against either
Russia or Iran. For starters, when Azerbaijan makes any military
purchase, from Russia or any other country, it keeps details of the
negotiations private until all questions have been resolved.
Moreover, there are no grounds for the parallels that are being
drawn between the risk of operation against Iran by US/Israel and the
settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh;
claims that Baku is seeking concessions from Russia in this direction
are baseless- over the past decade, Baku has not used Gabala as a
tool to negotiate greater neutrality on Moscow's part regarding the
Karabakh conflict.
Secondly, Gabala is a rapidly developing region that has invested
heavily in tourism over recent years, and has changed a great deal
since the Soviet era. The developing tourism facilities in Gabala
are suffering because of the radar station due to a very high
electro-magnetic impulse, and Azerbaijan is losing money every year.
The losses have to be recouped; especially if we take into
consideration that due to inflation $7 million today is not the same
as in 2002. Of course, Azerbaijan has another reason to be dissatisfied
with the current arrangement, which is the fact that Russia, according
to official sources, is planning to spend 23 trillion rubles ($770
billion) on arms between now and 2020. In this light, the proposed
rent hike seems less unreasonable.
On the other hand, the Gabala radar station is often the subject of
ecological and environmental concern. The station occupies some 210
hectares of land; in addition, an adjacent area of 30 hectares was
deforested in order to lay high-voltage lines to supply the station
with electric power. The surrounding forests are now dying due to the
decreased levels of groundwater. The objections by the Azerbaijani
opposition and various environmental movements are frequently voiced
in the Azerbaijani press. From the economic standpoint, without the
station, Gabala would be a more popular tourist destination, and
tourism would bring in money. Another key issue here is public health.
Azerbaijan is not considering transferring the station to a different
location, nor is it interested in building a new one. It is only
logical that government is more interested in developing tourism,
and so Western investment in a radar station in Azerbaijan is unlikely.
On several occasions, the media has drawn comparisons between Baikonur
spaceport in Kazakhstan, and Gabala, arguing, given that since the
start of 2011 Russia has paid Kazakhstan $56 million for a lease
on Baikonur spaceport, $300 million for Gabala is unacceptable. But
Baikonur spaceport is not located in an area of tourism; it is in the
middle of the desert. More importantly, the health risks are greater in
Gabala, which is much more densely populated. In addition, some Russian
sources have suggested that Moscow has no interest in modernizing or
paying more for Gabala, on the grounds that the Voronezh-class radar
(in Armavir, the Black Sea area) that is currently operating in test
mode is significantly more advanced than the previous generation of
radars. Nonetheless, the Gabala radar station remains of interest
to Russians, simply because it allows them to maintain a physical
presence in Azerbaijan.
For Azerbaijan, the future of the radar remains a purely economic
matter, and Baku refutes any links to partisan speculation or rumor.
It is no secret that Iran is trying to turn its battle with Israel/US
over to Azerbaijani territory, using fundamentalist groups and
sponsoring media outlets. But interestingly, the material on Gabala has
been leaked by some Russian media sources. Nevertheless, playing games
with the media means taking the unethical path, i.e. leaking privileged
information pertaining to bilateral negotiations. While Iran's
previous behavior sought to create problems for Azerbaijan in its
relations with the US and other Western countries, it is now seeking
to destabilize Russia-Azerbaijan relations. The remaining question is,
in whose interest are these debates on the Gabala Radar Station? On
one hand it is understandable that Moscow is dissatisfied, however it
seems that for Moscow this is more than a matter of economics. The
situation brings to mind the Azerbaijani proverb, "Save me from my
friends, I'm capable of fighting with my enemies." The Daryal gambit
represents part of a broader, long-term geopolitical strategy.