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Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
March 7 2012
Russia has no solution to Nagorno-Karabakh
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has won the recent presidential
polls, inspiring new discussions of Russian foreign policy of the
upcoming six years. Putin called the CIS the absolute priority.
Political analysts believe that the policy will include realization of
the Eurasian project, development of South Caucasus, efficient
relations with Baku and Ankara. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one
of the issues.
Sergey Mikheyev, Director General of the Center for Political
Conjuncture, believes that Putin's presidency would not give a boost
to the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. The situation is at a
stalemate, because Baku and Yerevan do not want to make concessions.
Putin's international mediation would not make much difference,
because Europeans, Americans and Russia have reached no major progress
so far. But certain changes may occur. President Dmitry Medvedev paid
special attention to the problem.
Yevgeny Minchenko, Director of the International Institute for
Political Expertise, expects a military resolution of the conflict.
Elites of both Azerbaijan and Armenia are likely to provoke a military
conflict for domestic mobilization. Azerbaijan has spent a lot of
finances on military modernization, purchases of weapons. Armenia has
very serious domestic problems and needs a foreign enemy to
consolidate voters. This is why there is a risk of war and a military
operation against Iran could become an additional factor of
destabilization. Chances of war are 10-15%, the political analyst
says.
March 7 2012
Russia has no solution to Nagorno-Karabakh
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has won the recent presidential
polls, inspiring new discussions of Russian foreign policy of the
upcoming six years. Putin called the CIS the absolute priority.
Political analysts believe that the policy will include realization of
the Eurasian project, development of South Caucasus, efficient
relations with Baku and Ankara. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one
of the issues.
Sergey Mikheyev, Director General of the Center for Political
Conjuncture, believes that Putin's presidency would not give a boost
to the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. The situation is at a
stalemate, because Baku and Yerevan do not want to make concessions.
Putin's international mediation would not make much difference,
because Europeans, Americans and Russia have reached no major progress
so far. But certain changes may occur. President Dmitry Medvedev paid
special attention to the problem.
Yevgeny Minchenko, Director of the International Institute for
Political Expertise, expects a military resolution of the conflict.
Elites of both Azerbaijan and Armenia are likely to provoke a military
conflict for domestic mobilization. Azerbaijan has spent a lot of
finances on military modernization, purchases of weapons. Armenia has
very serious domestic problems and needs a foreign enemy to
consolidate voters. This is why there is a risk of war and a military
operation against Iran could become an additional factor of
destabilization. Chances of war are 10-15%, the political analyst
says.