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Caucasian 'Great Game' over gas and oil remains unresolvedby Francesco
Guarascio
07 March 2012
The frozen conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the mountainous
region of Nagorno-Karabakh shows no signs of thawing despite the danger it
poses to Europe's strategic southern corridor for energy supplies
Almost 20 years of war is a long period of conflict even by Russian
standards, but since the first shots were fired between Armenian and Azeri
troops in 1988 and a ceasefire was agreed in 1994 - very little has
effectively changed in the relations between the two southern Caucasian
countries. They remain irreconcilable enemies divided by heavily armed
borders. Without the powerful lid of the Soviet Union, the long-running
grudge between these two nations erupted into war. Going on the offensive,
Armenia's troops were able to conquer the ethnically Armenian territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies within Azerbaijan. In order to do so, the
Armenian army also took control of the strip of land dividing the region
from Armenia and other surrounding territories further inside Azerbaijan's
land.
Nearly 30.000 people were killed during the conflict with Azerbaijan
bearing the heaviest burden. It has since been flooded by nearly one
million refugees and has lost around 20 per cent of its territory. The
mainly ethnic Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh has repeatedly and
overwhelmingly voted in favour of independence, yet no country in the world
has so far recognised the breakaway region. "I have never heard of the
independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, it is Azeri territory; it cannot be
independent, it will never be independent," Azerbaijan's Deputy Prime
Minister Ali Hasanov tells PublicServiceEurope.com.
The United Nations and other international bodies have repeatedly condemned
the situation and asked Armenia to withdraw its troops from the occupied
territories. The international organisations "should insist on the
implementation of their own decisions, but they do not," adds Hasanov.
"After the UN resolution on Libya last year, it took two hours for NATO to
implement it. We are still waiting for the implementations of decisions
taken in 1993." Meanwhile, Armenia's President Serzh Sargsyan said
yesterday, during a press conference in Brussels with the President of the
European Commission José Manuel Barroso: "Nagorno-Karabakh is part of the
European family." Armenia's line remains firmly in favour of independence
for the region.
There seems to be little room for compromise left for the negotiators. The
last meeting between Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev and Sargsyan in
the Russian city of Kazan in June, ended in failure. "There will be other
high-level meetings for sure, but nothing is foreseen for the moment,"
acknowledges Hasanov. The European Union has dealt with the crisis in its
usual light-touch and indecisive manner. It is not a part of the
international council of negotiators called the Minsk Group, which since
1992, is trying to find a compromised solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh
dispute. The group is co-chaired by Russia, the United States and France.
"Nobody in the group seems interested in finding a solution," claims
Hasanov. Certainly not Russia, who can only profit from the instability of
a region where huge western interests are at stake.
Three special representatives for the Southern Caucasus have been appointed
by the European Union since 2003, but they have largely remained anonymous.
A French diplomat Philippe Lefort is the latest to be appointed and has
been in charge since September. "It is too early to appreciate his
contribution to the resolution of the crisis," says Hasanov diplomatically,
when asked to give an assessment of Lefort's progress to date. Of course,
six months is not so short a period to deliver results - but judging by the
region's standards, it certainly may be. Europe's proverbial lack of
resoluteness in foreign affairs might be particularly harmful in this case,
since Nagorno-Karabakh lies on the route between the oil and gas-rich
Caspian basin and Europe.
The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia pushed investors to take a
significant detour when laying down the gas and oil pipelines which connect
the Caspian Sea to Turkey. Instead of crossing Armenia, the existing
infrastructure goes around it with a deviation of over 100 kilometres. And
existing pipelines actually run a few kilometers away from
Nagorno-Karabakh's border - a comfortable shell distance from those
interested in causing trouble. "During the Russian-Georgian war in 2008, a
few Russian bombs fell very close to the Georgian end of the pipelines,"
says a European expert on the South Caucasus, who prefers to remain
anonymous.
Europe's ambitions to diversify its energy supplies and decrease the
dependency on Russian gas rely on a steady, direct flow of Azeri gas and
possibly at some point in the future on Turkmen and Kazakh gas. Therefore,
solving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not only a moral obligation for
the EU, but also a strategic priority and a crucial test for the embryonic
European diplomatic corps. Although it has slightly revised the script,
Europe is still playing its "Great Game" in the Caucasus - as Britain did
in Afghanistan in the 19th century. The theatre has changed, but the
players and the aims remain surprisingly familiar as Russia and the west
compete for influence in a strategic region.
http://www.publicserviceeurope.com/article/1609/caucasian-great-game-over-gas-and-oil-remains-unresolved
Guarascio
07 March 2012
The frozen conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the mountainous
region of Nagorno-Karabakh shows no signs of thawing despite the danger it
poses to Europe's strategic southern corridor for energy supplies
Almost 20 years of war is a long period of conflict even by Russian
standards, but since the first shots were fired between Armenian and Azeri
troops in 1988 and a ceasefire was agreed in 1994 - very little has
effectively changed in the relations between the two southern Caucasian
countries. They remain irreconcilable enemies divided by heavily armed
borders. Without the powerful lid of the Soviet Union, the long-running
grudge between these two nations erupted into war. Going on the offensive,
Armenia's troops were able to conquer the ethnically Armenian territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies within Azerbaijan. In order to do so, the
Armenian army also took control of the strip of land dividing the region
from Armenia and other surrounding territories further inside Azerbaijan's
land.
Nearly 30.000 people were killed during the conflict with Azerbaijan
bearing the heaviest burden. It has since been flooded by nearly one
million refugees and has lost around 20 per cent of its territory. The
mainly ethnic Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh has repeatedly and
overwhelmingly voted in favour of independence, yet no country in the world
has so far recognised the breakaway region. "I have never heard of the
independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, it is Azeri territory; it cannot be
independent, it will never be independent," Azerbaijan's Deputy Prime
Minister Ali Hasanov tells PublicServiceEurope.com.
The United Nations and other international bodies have repeatedly condemned
the situation and asked Armenia to withdraw its troops from the occupied
territories. The international organisations "should insist on the
implementation of their own decisions, but they do not," adds Hasanov.
"After the UN resolution on Libya last year, it took two hours for NATO to
implement it. We are still waiting for the implementations of decisions
taken in 1993." Meanwhile, Armenia's President Serzh Sargsyan said
yesterday, during a press conference in Brussels with the President of the
European Commission José Manuel Barroso: "Nagorno-Karabakh is part of the
European family." Armenia's line remains firmly in favour of independence
for the region.
There seems to be little room for compromise left for the negotiators. The
last meeting between Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev and Sargsyan in
the Russian city of Kazan in June, ended in failure. "There will be other
high-level meetings for sure, but nothing is foreseen for the moment,"
acknowledges Hasanov. The European Union has dealt with the crisis in its
usual light-touch and indecisive manner. It is not a part of the
international council of negotiators called the Minsk Group, which since
1992, is trying to find a compromised solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh
dispute. The group is co-chaired by Russia, the United States and France.
"Nobody in the group seems interested in finding a solution," claims
Hasanov. Certainly not Russia, who can only profit from the instability of
a region where huge western interests are at stake.
Three special representatives for the Southern Caucasus have been appointed
by the European Union since 2003, but they have largely remained anonymous.
A French diplomat Philippe Lefort is the latest to be appointed and has
been in charge since September. "It is too early to appreciate his
contribution to the resolution of the crisis," says Hasanov diplomatically,
when asked to give an assessment of Lefort's progress to date. Of course,
six months is not so short a period to deliver results - but judging by the
region's standards, it certainly may be. Europe's proverbial lack of
resoluteness in foreign affairs might be particularly harmful in this case,
since Nagorno-Karabakh lies on the route between the oil and gas-rich
Caspian basin and Europe.
The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia pushed investors to take a
significant detour when laying down the gas and oil pipelines which connect
the Caspian Sea to Turkey. Instead of crossing Armenia, the existing
infrastructure goes around it with a deviation of over 100 kilometres. And
existing pipelines actually run a few kilometers away from
Nagorno-Karabakh's border - a comfortable shell distance from those
interested in causing trouble. "During the Russian-Georgian war in 2008, a
few Russian bombs fell very close to the Georgian end of the pipelines,"
says a European expert on the South Caucasus, who prefers to remain
anonymous.
Europe's ambitions to diversify its energy supplies and decrease the
dependency on Russian gas rely on a steady, direct flow of Azeri gas and
possibly at some point in the future on Turkmen and Kazakh gas. Therefore,
solving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not only a moral obligation for
the EU, but also a strategic priority and a crucial test for the embryonic
European diplomatic corps. Although it has slightly revised the script,
Europe is still playing its "Great Game" in the Caucasus - as Britain did
in Afghanistan in the 19th century. The theatre has changed, but the
players and the aims remain surprisingly familiar as Russia and the west
compete for influence in a strategic region.
http://www.publicserviceeurope.com/article/1609/caucasian-great-game-over-gas-and-oil-remains-unresolved