Tweet
Expert: Azerbaijan and Armenia have forces supposing that they will be
able to gain a quick victory in case of resumption of military actions
arminfo
Wednesday, March 7, 15:08
Azerbaijan and Armenia have forces who suppose that they will be able
to gain a quick victory in case of resumption of military actions,
Sabine Freizer, Director of the Europe Program of the International
Crisis Group, says in her interview to Turan. In the ICG's report
"Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War" published a year earlier
warns about possible aggravation, as both countries take part in the
arms race, use military rhetoric and there is obvious slipping in the
peace process.
She says that the armed forces of Azerbaijan number 95,000 people,
those of Armenia and Karabakh - nearly 70,000. The both sides'
arsenals are becoming more and more capable to resist a long war.
These arsenals allow reaching big populated areas, damaging the
vitally important infrastructures and the communications. For
Azerbaijan the key problem will be that the Armenian troops have
tactical advantage as they control most part of the altitudes around
Nagorno-Karabakh. Freizer thinks that any attack outside Fizouli and
Jebrail will be a difficult fight on the mountainous relief, and
Azerbaijan will need at least threefold overweight in the manpower and
arms. She does not rule out possible involvement of the regional
powers in the conflict, though Russia and Turkey are currently close
strategic allies.
According to her, Armenia will most likely try to ensure Russia's
military intervention referring to the CSTO commitments. She says it
is hard to speak of direct military participation of Russia, however,
the agreement on the Russian military base in Gyumri was amended in
August 2010.
The document includes guarantees of security against the general
threats to Armenia's security, though does not clearly clarify the
military obligations of Moscow in case of resumption of the Karabakh
war. On 16 Aug 2010, a day before the renewal of the Armenian-Russian
military agreement, Turkey and Azerbaijan signed an agreement on
strategic partnership and an agreement on mutual assistance, which
says that the parties shall support each other "by every possible
means" in case of a military attack or "aggression" against either of
the countries.
Freizer does not believe that the U.S. or the EU will be directly
involved in the conflict, but the resumption of military actions may
seriously undermine the interests of the U.S. and the EU in the sphere
of energy, development of the South Caucasus as an alternative source
and transit routes for import of energy resources to Europe. A
full-scale war will endanger the Caucasus corridor. About 70% of all
flights of NATO's military aviation to the bases of Central Asia are
made via the air space of this corridor. The alternative land route to
Afghanistan also goes via Azerbaijan, Freizer says.
able to gain a quick victory in case of resumption of military actions
arminfo
Wednesday, March 7, 15:08
Azerbaijan and Armenia have forces who suppose that they will be able
to gain a quick victory in case of resumption of military actions,
Sabine Freizer, Director of the Europe Program of the International
Crisis Group, says in her interview to Turan. In the ICG's report
"Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War" published a year earlier
warns about possible aggravation, as both countries take part in the
arms race, use military rhetoric and there is obvious slipping in the
peace process.
She says that the armed forces of Azerbaijan number 95,000 people,
those of Armenia and Karabakh - nearly 70,000. The both sides'
arsenals are becoming more and more capable to resist a long war.
These arsenals allow reaching big populated areas, damaging the
vitally important infrastructures and the communications. For
Azerbaijan the key problem will be that the Armenian troops have
tactical advantage as they control most part of the altitudes around
Nagorno-Karabakh. Freizer thinks that any attack outside Fizouli and
Jebrail will be a difficult fight on the mountainous relief, and
Azerbaijan will need at least threefold overweight in the manpower and
arms. She does not rule out possible involvement of the regional
powers in the conflict, though Russia and Turkey are currently close
strategic allies.
According to her, Armenia will most likely try to ensure Russia's
military intervention referring to the CSTO commitments. She says it
is hard to speak of direct military participation of Russia, however,
the agreement on the Russian military base in Gyumri was amended in
August 2010.
The document includes guarantees of security against the general
threats to Armenia's security, though does not clearly clarify the
military obligations of Moscow in case of resumption of the Karabakh
war. On 16 Aug 2010, a day before the renewal of the Armenian-Russian
military agreement, Turkey and Azerbaijan signed an agreement on
strategic partnership and an agreement on mutual assistance, which
says that the parties shall support each other "by every possible
means" in case of a military attack or "aggression" against either of
the countries.
Freizer does not believe that the U.S. or the EU will be directly
involved in the conflict, but the resumption of military actions may
seriously undermine the interests of the U.S. and the EU in the sphere
of energy, development of the South Caucasus as an alternative source
and transit routes for import of energy resources to Europe. A
full-scale war will endanger the Caucasus corridor. About 70% of all
flights of NATO's military aviation to the bases of Central Asia are
made via the air space of this corridor. The alternative land route to
Afghanistan also goes via Azerbaijan, Freizer says.