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AZERBAIJAN AND GEORGIA: VISIONARY 'CAUCASIAN TANDEM'?
Today's Zaman
March 13 2012
Turkey
Georgia and Azerbaijan are "more than strategic partners," declared
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in a speech at the Azerbaijani
parliament during a visit to Baku last week.
His remarks focused on the history of fruitful relations between the
two countries and how past experience might provide a useful template
for the future development of the South Caucasus region. The speech
made reference to "Ali and Nino," a famous Azeri novel that ends with
Ali bey's death in a battle against invading Bolshevik (Russian)
troops, the immediate precursor to the fall of the Azerbaijani
Democratic Republic. Saakashvili proposed writing a happy ending to
this well-loved tragedy.
The main target of his remarks was Russia, and his use of the
Azerbaijani parliament as a platform for his criticism raised
concerns among some Azerbaijani members of parliament worried about
the potential damage to Azerbaijani-Russian relations. However, in
light of the recent return of Vladimir Putin to the Russian presidency,
Saakashvili's speech received particular attention from both the local
and international media. Putin's personal hatred for his pro-Western
Georgian counterpart Saakashvili is no secret and has been the source
of significant tensions between their two countries.
Generally speaking, local and international experts alike believe that
the decline in US interests in the Caucasus has left the region to
Moscow's hands. However, former US National Security Advisor Zbigniew
Brzezinski made the excellent point that "American decline would leave
Georgia totally vulnerable to both Russian political intimidation
and military aggression" (Brzezinski, "Strategic Vision, America
and Crisis of Global Power"). This is the main reason that President
Saakashvili was keen to get Baku's perspective on Putin's Eurasian
Union proposal -- also, bearing in mind that he visited Baku after
visiting Washington, D.C., some local experts believe that Saakashvili
carried a US message.
Moreover, Saakashvili emphasized once again that the future of the
Caucasus must belong to the European Union and NATO. To address this
point, the current plans for a Eurasian Economic Union are still
far too ambitious and, moreover, the timeline -- which sees the
creation of such a union by 2015 -- is unrealistic. It is also worth
recalling that Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called for
the establishment of a similar union across the Eurasian region back
in February 2010, a suggestion that seems largely forgotten. For
its part, Azerbaijan will consider the whole picture, but its
initial focus remains a solid foundation for the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The political establishment in Baku is
cautious about how Putin's return will affect the format of the
regular trilateral meetings between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia
on the conflict. In this regard, Turkey's move either towards or
against Putin's Eurasian Union initiative will influence Azerbaijan's
decision -- though at this point it is important to note that in any
case, Azerbaijan has still not joined the free-trade zone between
the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. Until the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is resolved, Azerbaijan does not support
any economic integration with Armenia.
Saakashvili's other message was a call for dedicated work on a "Common
Caucasus." Clearly, President Saakashvili is a strong supporter
of this concept, but, in fact, the theoretical basis for a "Common
Caucasus" has existed since April 8, 1996, following the signing of
the "Tbilisi Declaration on Peace, Security and Cooperation in the
Caucasian Region" between then-Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev
and then-Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze. The declaration has
been an essential component of the vision for the region's future, but
given the lack of progress on conflict resolution across the region,
this integration model has not worked. For similar reasons, Turkey's
Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform remains unrealized. With
regards to the role of the EU and NATO, Azerbaijanis were upset by the
EU's feeble efforts to assist Georgia in developing its membership
ambitions and its failure to support Georgia in asserting itself
before Russia. Thus, Azerbaijan is looking for integration models in
the neighborhood; the outcomes of Turkey and Georgia's aspirations
will be important for Baku.
After the collapse Soviet Union -- the "prison of nations" --
Azerbaijan and Georgia became the "prisoners of 3Gs": geography,
geo-economics and geopolitical competition. However, the two countries
turned those obstacles into advantages with the help of neighborly
relations. Thus Azerbaijan gained direct access to the Black Sea; the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum
gas pipeline were built; the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway will soon be
completed; and, most importantly, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey have
essentially formed a geopolitical team with significant support from
the US. The Azerbaijani-Georgian relationship was not merely born of
"geopolitical necessity" or "historical destiny."
The 2008 August War between Russia and Georgia reaffirmed the future
of the Baku-Tbilisi tandem; during the war, Azerbaijan retained
a neutral stance with regards to Moscow-Tbilisi tensions, but, in
reality, Georgia felt the support of Azerbaijan, especially through
economic cooperation. The energy supplies and support from Azerbaijan
were key to Georgia maintaining its internal functionality. The State
Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR), the largest taxpayer in Georgia,
has invested $1 billion in Georgia since forming its local affiliate,
SOCAR Georgia, and controls 80 fuel service stations nationwide.
During President Saakashvili's visit, both sides agreed to form a
joint bid to co-host the 2020 European Football Championship.
There are no existing political or economical problems between the
two countries, but, in a broader sense, there is one common shared
concern besides protracted conflicts. The primary concern in the
broader sense is the future of GUAM. Azerbaijan and Georgia are the
main facilitators of this structure, which has enabled them to realize
their ambition for a Western-oriented regional organization.
Established in 1997, GUAM unites countries that have common interests
in preserving territorial integrity -- Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and
Moldova. At the moment, GUAM's future is largely dependent on increased
support from the West. Its vision remains rooted in the 1990s paradigm,
and it needs to develop a comprehensive agenda for the future.
The 3G structure that characterizes this Caucasian Tandem (geopolitics,
geo-economics and geography) has strengthened a fourth dimension --
geostrategic vision -- that is vital for the future of the region.
Today's Zaman
March 13 2012
Turkey
Georgia and Azerbaijan are "more than strategic partners," declared
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in a speech at the Azerbaijani
parliament during a visit to Baku last week.
His remarks focused on the history of fruitful relations between the
two countries and how past experience might provide a useful template
for the future development of the South Caucasus region. The speech
made reference to "Ali and Nino," a famous Azeri novel that ends with
Ali bey's death in a battle against invading Bolshevik (Russian)
troops, the immediate precursor to the fall of the Azerbaijani
Democratic Republic. Saakashvili proposed writing a happy ending to
this well-loved tragedy.
The main target of his remarks was Russia, and his use of the
Azerbaijani parliament as a platform for his criticism raised
concerns among some Azerbaijani members of parliament worried about
the potential damage to Azerbaijani-Russian relations. However, in
light of the recent return of Vladimir Putin to the Russian presidency,
Saakashvili's speech received particular attention from both the local
and international media. Putin's personal hatred for his pro-Western
Georgian counterpart Saakashvili is no secret and has been the source
of significant tensions between their two countries.
Generally speaking, local and international experts alike believe that
the decline in US interests in the Caucasus has left the region to
Moscow's hands. However, former US National Security Advisor Zbigniew
Brzezinski made the excellent point that "American decline would leave
Georgia totally vulnerable to both Russian political intimidation
and military aggression" (Brzezinski, "Strategic Vision, America
and Crisis of Global Power"). This is the main reason that President
Saakashvili was keen to get Baku's perspective on Putin's Eurasian
Union proposal -- also, bearing in mind that he visited Baku after
visiting Washington, D.C., some local experts believe that Saakashvili
carried a US message.
Moreover, Saakashvili emphasized once again that the future of the
Caucasus must belong to the European Union and NATO. To address this
point, the current plans for a Eurasian Economic Union are still
far too ambitious and, moreover, the timeline -- which sees the
creation of such a union by 2015 -- is unrealistic. It is also worth
recalling that Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called for
the establishment of a similar union across the Eurasian region back
in February 2010, a suggestion that seems largely forgotten. For
its part, Azerbaijan will consider the whole picture, but its
initial focus remains a solid foundation for the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The political establishment in Baku is
cautious about how Putin's return will affect the format of the
regular trilateral meetings between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia
on the conflict. In this regard, Turkey's move either towards or
against Putin's Eurasian Union initiative will influence Azerbaijan's
decision -- though at this point it is important to note that in any
case, Azerbaijan has still not joined the free-trade zone between
the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. Until the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is resolved, Azerbaijan does not support
any economic integration with Armenia.
Saakashvili's other message was a call for dedicated work on a "Common
Caucasus." Clearly, President Saakashvili is a strong supporter
of this concept, but, in fact, the theoretical basis for a "Common
Caucasus" has existed since April 8, 1996, following the signing of
the "Tbilisi Declaration on Peace, Security and Cooperation in the
Caucasian Region" between then-Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev
and then-Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze. The declaration has
been an essential component of the vision for the region's future, but
given the lack of progress on conflict resolution across the region,
this integration model has not worked. For similar reasons, Turkey's
Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform remains unrealized. With
regards to the role of the EU and NATO, Azerbaijanis were upset by the
EU's feeble efforts to assist Georgia in developing its membership
ambitions and its failure to support Georgia in asserting itself
before Russia. Thus, Azerbaijan is looking for integration models in
the neighborhood; the outcomes of Turkey and Georgia's aspirations
will be important for Baku.
After the collapse Soviet Union -- the "prison of nations" --
Azerbaijan and Georgia became the "prisoners of 3Gs": geography,
geo-economics and geopolitical competition. However, the two countries
turned those obstacles into advantages with the help of neighborly
relations. Thus Azerbaijan gained direct access to the Black Sea; the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum
gas pipeline were built; the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway will soon be
completed; and, most importantly, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey have
essentially formed a geopolitical team with significant support from
the US. The Azerbaijani-Georgian relationship was not merely born of
"geopolitical necessity" or "historical destiny."
The 2008 August War between Russia and Georgia reaffirmed the future
of the Baku-Tbilisi tandem; during the war, Azerbaijan retained
a neutral stance with regards to Moscow-Tbilisi tensions, but, in
reality, Georgia felt the support of Azerbaijan, especially through
economic cooperation. The energy supplies and support from Azerbaijan
were key to Georgia maintaining its internal functionality. The State
Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR), the largest taxpayer in Georgia,
has invested $1 billion in Georgia since forming its local affiliate,
SOCAR Georgia, and controls 80 fuel service stations nationwide.
During President Saakashvili's visit, both sides agreed to form a
joint bid to co-host the 2020 European Football Championship.
There are no existing political or economical problems between the
two countries, but, in a broader sense, there is one common shared
concern besides protracted conflicts. The primary concern in the
broader sense is the future of GUAM. Azerbaijan and Georgia are the
main facilitators of this structure, which has enabled them to realize
their ambition for a Western-oriented regional organization.
Established in 1997, GUAM unites countries that have common interests
in preserving territorial integrity -- Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and
Moldova. At the moment, GUAM's future is largely dependent on increased
support from the West. Its vision remains rooted in the 1990s paradigm,
and it needs to develop a comprehensive agenda for the future.
The 3G structure that characterizes this Caucasian Tandem (geopolitics,
geo-economics and geography) has strengthened a fourth dimension --
geostrategic vision -- that is vital for the future of the region.