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IRAN'S LAST CHANCE
by Vladimir Soloviov
Kommersant
March 14 2012
Russia
[translated from Russian]
UNLESS ITS DEMANDS ARE MET, THE UNITED STATES IS PREPARED TO GO TO WAR;
The Iranian situation is deteriorating. A war seems imminent.
What information this newspaper has compiled indicates that U.S. State
Secretary Hillary Clinton asked Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to
inform Tehran that its negotiations with the international community
scheduled for April were its last chance to avoid a war. Lavrov and
Clinton met in New York right after the UN Security Council meeting
this Monday.
Speaking of the future American and Israeli strikes at Iranian sites,
diplomats use "when" instead of the conditional "if" now. "Iran will
be invaded before the end of the year," said a senior functionary of
the Russian Foreign Ministry on the eve of the UN Security Council
meeting. "By and large, the Israelis blackmail Obama. He is either
to go to war or be stripped of support from the powerful Jewish lobby."
The source became even more precise after the UN Security Council
meeting. He said that the talks between the Iranians and the Six Group
(Russia, Great Britain, Germany, China, France, and the United States)
would take place in April. Another attempt would be made to solve the
Iranian nuclear problem. According to the diplomat, the Americans
said that this was Tehran's last chance. Clinton all but confirmed
it in a conversation with Lavrov as well and asked him to convey it
to the Iranian authorities.
The date and the location of the future talks are still discussed. It
is their agenda that leaves no questions or doubts. The talks
will be focused on the Iranian nuclear program and its use for
military purposes, as well as on IAEA observers barred from Parchin
installation.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov admitted that the Iranian
crisis was rapidly deteriorating. "Escalation is undeniable... Those
who itch to go to war ought to pull themselves up and concentrate on
a diplomatic solution. Instead of solving a problem, war will breed
a host of new problems. More to the point, it will affect lots of
countries," said Ryabkov.
Calling for peace, Russia makes preparations for a war as well. "Yes,
we've updated contingency plans for a war in Iran," said a Defense
Ministry functionary. The source said that Azerbaijan, a country not
yet fully recovered from the war over Nagorno-Karabakh, was bound to
be flooded with refugees fleeing Iran under attack. "Even worse, the
hostilities in Iran will complicate the situation in the Caucasus -
which is already complicated."
A senior diplomat confirmed existence of contingency plans.
Lavrov's trip to New York clarified to some extent the Syrian situation
- at least for the nearest future. The UN Security Council meeting
chaired by Great Britain and focused on the Middle East crisis made
it plain that Damascus might put aside fears of an intervention from
abroad for the time being.
Foreign ministers who attended the meeting condemned the actions of
the Syrian authorities and President Bashar al-Assad personally but
voted to wait to hear from Kofi Annan first. Annan visited Syria not
long ago. He met with the Syrian opposition and with al-Bassad. The
latter was acquainted with the latest peace initiatives formulated
by the international community. The initiatives in question included
what had been suggested by Lavrov and the Arab League on March 10 -
immediate suspension of violence by all involved parties, relief aid to
the Syrians, cease-fire regime monitoring... Al-Assad promised Annan
to consider the initiatives and give an answer "within days". He even
implied that the answer would be "constructive".
Moscow has its own theory explaining the fact that heat is taken off
Syria for the time being. A Russian diplomat said, "The Americans
cannot help but back off and they want to do so without a loss of
face... They know that Israel will strike at Iran. Two simultaneous
wars in the region are one too many."
by Vladimir Soloviov
Kommersant
March 14 2012
Russia
[translated from Russian]
UNLESS ITS DEMANDS ARE MET, THE UNITED STATES IS PREPARED TO GO TO WAR;
The Iranian situation is deteriorating. A war seems imminent.
What information this newspaper has compiled indicates that U.S. State
Secretary Hillary Clinton asked Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to
inform Tehran that its negotiations with the international community
scheduled for April were its last chance to avoid a war. Lavrov and
Clinton met in New York right after the UN Security Council meeting
this Monday.
Speaking of the future American and Israeli strikes at Iranian sites,
diplomats use "when" instead of the conditional "if" now. "Iran will
be invaded before the end of the year," said a senior functionary of
the Russian Foreign Ministry on the eve of the UN Security Council
meeting. "By and large, the Israelis blackmail Obama. He is either
to go to war or be stripped of support from the powerful Jewish lobby."
The source became even more precise after the UN Security Council
meeting. He said that the talks between the Iranians and the Six Group
(Russia, Great Britain, Germany, China, France, and the United States)
would take place in April. Another attempt would be made to solve the
Iranian nuclear problem. According to the diplomat, the Americans
said that this was Tehran's last chance. Clinton all but confirmed
it in a conversation with Lavrov as well and asked him to convey it
to the Iranian authorities.
The date and the location of the future talks are still discussed. It
is their agenda that leaves no questions or doubts. The talks
will be focused on the Iranian nuclear program and its use for
military purposes, as well as on IAEA observers barred from Parchin
installation.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov admitted that the Iranian
crisis was rapidly deteriorating. "Escalation is undeniable... Those
who itch to go to war ought to pull themselves up and concentrate on
a diplomatic solution. Instead of solving a problem, war will breed
a host of new problems. More to the point, it will affect lots of
countries," said Ryabkov.
Calling for peace, Russia makes preparations for a war as well. "Yes,
we've updated contingency plans for a war in Iran," said a Defense
Ministry functionary. The source said that Azerbaijan, a country not
yet fully recovered from the war over Nagorno-Karabakh, was bound to
be flooded with refugees fleeing Iran under attack. "Even worse, the
hostilities in Iran will complicate the situation in the Caucasus -
which is already complicated."
A senior diplomat confirmed existence of contingency plans.
Lavrov's trip to New York clarified to some extent the Syrian situation
- at least for the nearest future. The UN Security Council meeting
chaired by Great Britain and focused on the Middle East crisis made
it plain that Damascus might put aside fears of an intervention from
abroad for the time being.
Foreign ministers who attended the meeting condemned the actions of
the Syrian authorities and President Bashar al-Assad personally but
voted to wait to hear from Kofi Annan first. Annan visited Syria not
long ago. He met with the Syrian opposition and with al-Bassad. The
latter was acquainted with the latest peace initiatives formulated
by the international community. The initiatives in question included
what had been suggested by Lavrov and the Arab League on March 10 -
immediate suspension of violence by all involved parties, relief aid to
the Syrians, cease-fire regime monitoring... Al-Assad promised Annan
to consider the initiatives and give an answer "within days". He even
implied that the answer would be "constructive".
Moscow has its own theory explaining the fact that heat is taken off
Syria for the time being. A Russian diplomat said, "The Americans
cannot help but back off and they want to do so without a loss of
face... They know that Israel will strike at Iran. Two simultaneous
wars in the region are one too many."