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WHO MAKES DECISIONS IN ARMENIA
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments25560.html
Published: 15:27:47 - 23/03/2012
The election list of the Republican Party, which, despite the
assurances host oligarchs, criminals, functionaries and generals,
made wonder the society: so who controls the situation in Armenia.
Who decides? No strategy and tactics can be worked out without the
answer to this question?
There are two main versions: either Serzh Sargsyan fully controls the
situation but does not want reforms, or the situation in the country
is uncontrolled and decisions are taken under the influence of the
momentary pressure by all the sides.
If Serzh Sargsyan is really the decision maker and, despite his
promises not to include the oligarchs into the election list, did it
anyway, it means that he does not need a reformed parliament, and all
the talks on modernization are false and he is the main defender of
the oligarchs in the country.
The second version is when Serzh Sargsyan doesn't control the
situation. If any oligarch can go to the president and threaten to join
Robert Kocharyan's team, or maybe threaten an angry call from Moscow
if he is not included into the list, means, fictive dictatorship is
in the country which is worse than real dictatorship.
If the constitutional mechanisms don't function, the power passes to
one person. If this person has enough power, he becomes the decision
maker establishing his diktat.
When he is not strong enough to establish a dictatorship, either
everyone understands this situation and start dictating themselves,
like it is happening in Armenia, or the president resorts to the
Constitution.
Anyway, no matter if Serzh Sargsyan wanted such lists or if he was
forced to make such, the parliament in the previous composition will
become the end to his presidential tenure. If Sargsyan decided to
continue relying on the criminal oligarchy, and if division of seats
has really been carried out between the main parties, Serzh Sargsyan
won't have any guarantees to re-election next February. The society
may completely reject him, the same society, which he tried to attract
through the fight against the oligarchy.
And if Serzh Sargsyan was really unable to resist and the lists were
formed against his will, then, he again has no guarantees that those
who forced him to involve the oligarchs into the lists will fulfill
his orders. Rather, they will start looking for those who accepts
their decisions.
The only chance to win real votes at the upcoming presidential
elections for Serzh Sargsyan would be the implementation of the
promise not to include oligarchs into the lists. The chance has not
been yet lost in the sense that not everyone on the list will enter
the parliament. As an example take Eduard Madatyan.
The answer to the question who decides in Armenia is important also
for the opposition which should build its strategy taking this fact
into account.
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments25560.html
Published: 15:27:47 - 23/03/2012
The election list of the Republican Party, which, despite the
assurances host oligarchs, criminals, functionaries and generals,
made wonder the society: so who controls the situation in Armenia.
Who decides? No strategy and tactics can be worked out without the
answer to this question?
There are two main versions: either Serzh Sargsyan fully controls the
situation but does not want reforms, or the situation in the country
is uncontrolled and decisions are taken under the influence of the
momentary pressure by all the sides.
If Serzh Sargsyan is really the decision maker and, despite his
promises not to include the oligarchs into the election list, did it
anyway, it means that he does not need a reformed parliament, and all
the talks on modernization are false and he is the main defender of
the oligarchs in the country.
The second version is when Serzh Sargsyan doesn't control the
situation. If any oligarch can go to the president and threaten to join
Robert Kocharyan's team, or maybe threaten an angry call from Moscow
if he is not included into the list, means, fictive dictatorship is
in the country which is worse than real dictatorship.
If the constitutional mechanisms don't function, the power passes to
one person. If this person has enough power, he becomes the decision
maker establishing his diktat.
When he is not strong enough to establish a dictatorship, either
everyone understands this situation and start dictating themselves,
like it is happening in Armenia, or the president resorts to the
Constitution.
Anyway, no matter if Serzh Sargsyan wanted such lists or if he was
forced to make such, the parliament in the previous composition will
become the end to his presidential tenure. If Sargsyan decided to
continue relying on the criminal oligarchy, and if division of seats
has really been carried out between the main parties, Serzh Sargsyan
won't have any guarantees to re-election next February. The society
may completely reject him, the same society, which he tried to attract
through the fight against the oligarchy.
And if Serzh Sargsyan was really unable to resist and the lists were
formed against his will, then, he again has no guarantees that those
who forced him to involve the oligarchs into the lists will fulfill
his orders. Rather, they will start looking for those who accepts
their decisions.
The only chance to win real votes at the upcoming presidential
elections for Serzh Sargsyan would be the implementation of the
promise not to include oligarchs into the lists. The chance has not
been yet lost in the sense that not everyone on the list will enter
the parliament. As an example take Eduard Madatyan.
The answer to the question who decides in Armenia is important also
for the opposition which should build its strategy taking this fact
into account.