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PREVENTIVE BLOW TO AZERBAIJAN
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics25644.html
Published: 14:24:50 - 30/03/2012
The fact that the Azerbaijani leadership and a lot of dreamers are
addicted to grandeur is clear to everyone, even some opposition
figures. Most oil-exporting countries accumulated wealth, bought a
large amount of weapons but they are still modest in the international
political arena. They Azerbaijanis were unable to stay within the
limits of the reality, and this is a subject of unpleasant expectations
for a number of interested countries.
Their ambitions do not fit not only into the U.S., Russian and
Iranian but also Turkish plans and perhaps only Israel benefits from
the apparent haughtiness and adventurism of "Caucasian Israel". In
addition, Azerbaijan has seized from Armenia this prospect of becoming
Caucasian Israel. The United States is implementing its "limited"
strategy in the Black Sea region and South Caucasus, defending the
rights of the sphere of logistics where Azerbaijan performs the role
of a very controllable and stable country.
Moreover, the United States and Israel understand very well that if
they launch the project of the large-scale offensive on Iran in front
of Azerbaijan and Turkey, both countries will willingly or unwillingly
take part in the implementation of this project and their statements
will be refuted. Besides, it does not mean that Azerbaijan can act on
its own, without agreeing its actions with the major actors. Azerbaijan
is a convenient partner as an armament customer and Russia, Ukraine,
Israel, Belarus and Turkey became the main suppliers. Azerbaijan has
become a little independent from the U.S. and has illusions that this
"independence" can develop in the future.
But this can lead Turkey, maybe also Israel in some conditions, to
use Azerbaijan's ambitions and use force to resolve issues. Military
actions by Azerbaijan will surely lead to the strengthening of the
positions of Turkey and Israel and will question the roles of the U.S.,
Iran and Russia in the region.
But Russia and Iran have no possibility to manipulate the situation in
the region, at least at this moment. The possibilities of the United
States are also limited, taking into account the radical solution of
issue. But these powers can punish Azerbaijan for the uncontrolled
show-off of hostile moods.
This is possible with the help of Armenia which is interested in
preventive military actions, and is only waiting for the right moment
to hit Azerbaijan and solve the problems in two or three important
directions. These developments can lead to shared interests of the
U.S. and Russia, and Iran.
Now, the conditions are favorable for a "controlled" war but it is
not clear whether it will be totally "controlled". The U.S. understood
that its status and possibilities do not differ much from that of
other no less influential powers in terms of the regional policy. In
other words, the U.S. is trying to gain dominance in those regions
where it is necessary to set up balance of force.
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics25644.html
Published: 14:24:50 - 30/03/2012
The fact that the Azerbaijani leadership and a lot of dreamers are
addicted to grandeur is clear to everyone, even some opposition
figures. Most oil-exporting countries accumulated wealth, bought a
large amount of weapons but they are still modest in the international
political arena. They Azerbaijanis were unable to stay within the
limits of the reality, and this is a subject of unpleasant expectations
for a number of interested countries.
Their ambitions do not fit not only into the U.S., Russian and
Iranian but also Turkish plans and perhaps only Israel benefits from
the apparent haughtiness and adventurism of "Caucasian Israel". In
addition, Azerbaijan has seized from Armenia this prospect of becoming
Caucasian Israel. The United States is implementing its "limited"
strategy in the Black Sea region and South Caucasus, defending the
rights of the sphere of logistics where Azerbaijan performs the role
of a very controllable and stable country.
Moreover, the United States and Israel understand very well that if
they launch the project of the large-scale offensive on Iran in front
of Azerbaijan and Turkey, both countries will willingly or unwillingly
take part in the implementation of this project and their statements
will be refuted. Besides, it does not mean that Azerbaijan can act on
its own, without agreeing its actions with the major actors. Azerbaijan
is a convenient partner as an armament customer and Russia, Ukraine,
Israel, Belarus and Turkey became the main suppliers. Azerbaijan has
become a little independent from the U.S. and has illusions that this
"independence" can develop in the future.
But this can lead Turkey, maybe also Israel in some conditions, to
use Azerbaijan's ambitions and use force to resolve issues. Military
actions by Azerbaijan will surely lead to the strengthening of the
positions of Turkey and Israel and will question the roles of the U.S.,
Iran and Russia in the region.
But Russia and Iran have no possibility to manipulate the situation in
the region, at least at this moment. The possibilities of the United
States are also limited, taking into account the radical solution of
issue. But these powers can punish Azerbaijan for the uncontrolled
show-off of hostile moods.
This is possible with the help of Armenia which is interested in
preventive military actions, and is only waiting for the right moment
to hit Azerbaijan and solve the problems in two or three important
directions. These developments can lead to shared interests of the
U.S. and Russia, and Iran.
Now, the conditions are favorable for a "controlled" war but it is
not clear whether it will be totally "controlled". The U.S. understood
that its status and possibilities do not differ much from that of
other no less influential powers in terms of the regional policy. In
other words, the U.S. is trying to gain dominance in those regions
where it is necessary to set up balance of force.