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MEDIATORS SHOULD ENSURE WITHDRAWAL OF OCCUPATION FORCES FROM NAGORNO-KARABAKH
Trend
March 29 2012
Azerbaijan
The mediators in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
must achieve a dialogue between the communities and the withdrawal
of occupation forces, Director of the Center of Political Innovations
and Technologies, political scientist Mubariz Ahmedoglu told Trend.
Ahmedoglu said appeal on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict made by Foreign Ministers of the OSCE Minsk Group drew
attention from some points of view.
"First of all the appeal of the co-chairs isn't implemented within a
short period elapsed from the appeal. Second this sudden appeal means
a great progress in resolution of the conflict as a dialogue between
Armenians and Azerbaijani lived in Nagorno-Karabakh is shown as a
main road leading to peace. Issue of confidence-building measures, as
well as the withdrawal of snipers from the contact line is not put,"
Ahmedoglu said.
"Statement of the Foreign Ministers of member countries of OSCE
Minsk Group can also be seen as a reaction to the steps taken by
Russia to annexation of Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia,"
Ahmedoglu said.
The composition, principles of action, the statute of OSCE Minsk Group,
which has been operating during 20 years, showed its complete failure,
causing serious concern, the analyst said.
"Elimination of gaps in this area is a requirement of the day. At the
same time we must not forget about another issue. Three major nations
of the world have always boasted that they had come to a unified
position on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Now, the position of the
Russian Federation, which it demonstrated to other conflict zones
in the CIS space, once may have an impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, and thus, the format of a single co-operation of the three
leading nations of the world, may be destroyed," Ahmedoglu said.
According to him, the only ones to blame for delays and the current
status of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are mediators, so that in
the result of the OSCE Minsk Group activity, the true position of the
Armenian leadership in resolving this conflict is not clear neither
to Armenian people nor to the international community.
"Thanks to information provided by the co-chairs, in France and the
United States people really believe that Armenia will once peacefully
settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, will withdraw the armed forces
from the occupied territories, agree to a return of Azerbaijanis
to the land of their fathers and grandfathers. Mediators played an
important role in informing the world, including the leadership of
their countries, about Armenian lies" the political analyst said.
Armenia began to arm itself in recent years, which is also the result
of the OSCE Minsk Group, he said. Today the expenditure of the state
budget of Armenia for military purposes is more than Azerbaijani in
percentage comparison.
"Three years ago, Armenia was in talks with international institutions
for a loan. International financial institutions have demanded
additional guarantees for its issue. Armenia began to negotiate with
Fitch to get guarantees. After the activities of the Armenian lobby
the Fitch international rating agency has agreed to provide a letter
of guarantee to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund,
but has put forward a condition that a letter of guarantee stating
that no war will be in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict must
be given," Ahmedoglu noted.
They presented to Fitch a letter of guarantee that the OSCE Minsk
Group, and three co-chairs will not allow the war in Nagorno-Karabakh
region, he said. From the obtained credits Armenia provided funds
for weapons.
"The sudden increase in funds allocated by Armenia for arms, which
began in 2009, is connected with it. Thus, the mediators, using the
fact they will not allow the war in the region as a cover actually
helped to arm Armenia. Maybe, mediators saw in Armenia's arming
factor that will prevent war. But the result is obvious: the region
is now more ready for war than for peace. While the war has not begun,
it can be prevented," said the analyst.
If we consider that the mediators by their visits deceived their
countries' leaders, we consider it useful to change the method of
their activities, he said.
"The three co-chairs for a long time - from several weeks to several
months - while being in the region, begin to organize a dialogue
between the communities of Nagorno-Karabakh, establish it and bring
the number of participants in a dialogue from each side to at least
500 people. It would be better to conduct systematically organized
dialogues on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, in the cities of
Shusha and Khankendi. With the organization of dialogue between the
Armenian and Azerbaijani communities of Nagorno-Karabakh foundation
is laid for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Nagorno-Karabakh,"
said Ahmedoglu.
Not only Russia but the United States can exert military pressure
today on, he said.
"The upcoming parliamentary elections, and the expected military
strikes on Iran, increased military pressure of the U.S. on Armenia.
Meetings held by the Armenian defense minister in the United
States, and in particular with the U.S. Secretary of Defense and
the heads of the CIA, give an idea of their contents. If there are
no serious objective efforts of mediators, their hard work, then war
is inevitable," added the analyst.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France and the U.S. -
are currently holding peace negotiations.
Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four
resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the
surrounding regions.
From: A. Papazian
Trend
March 29 2012
Azerbaijan
The mediators in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
must achieve a dialogue between the communities and the withdrawal
of occupation forces, Director of the Center of Political Innovations
and Technologies, political scientist Mubariz Ahmedoglu told Trend.
Ahmedoglu said appeal on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict made by Foreign Ministers of the OSCE Minsk Group drew
attention from some points of view.
"First of all the appeal of the co-chairs isn't implemented within a
short period elapsed from the appeal. Second this sudden appeal means
a great progress in resolution of the conflict as a dialogue between
Armenians and Azerbaijani lived in Nagorno-Karabakh is shown as a
main road leading to peace. Issue of confidence-building measures, as
well as the withdrawal of snipers from the contact line is not put,"
Ahmedoglu said.
"Statement of the Foreign Ministers of member countries of OSCE
Minsk Group can also be seen as a reaction to the steps taken by
Russia to annexation of Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia,"
Ahmedoglu said.
The composition, principles of action, the statute of OSCE Minsk Group,
which has been operating during 20 years, showed its complete failure,
causing serious concern, the analyst said.
"Elimination of gaps in this area is a requirement of the day. At the
same time we must not forget about another issue. Three major nations
of the world have always boasted that they had come to a unified
position on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Now, the position of the
Russian Federation, which it demonstrated to other conflict zones
in the CIS space, once may have an impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, and thus, the format of a single co-operation of the three
leading nations of the world, may be destroyed," Ahmedoglu said.
According to him, the only ones to blame for delays and the current
status of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are mediators, so that in
the result of the OSCE Minsk Group activity, the true position of the
Armenian leadership in resolving this conflict is not clear neither
to Armenian people nor to the international community.
"Thanks to information provided by the co-chairs, in France and the
United States people really believe that Armenia will once peacefully
settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, will withdraw the armed forces
from the occupied territories, agree to a return of Azerbaijanis
to the land of their fathers and grandfathers. Mediators played an
important role in informing the world, including the leadership of
their countries, about Armenian lies" the political analyst said.
Armenia began to arm itself in recent years, which is also the result
of the OSCE Minsk Group, he said. Today the expenditure of the state
budget of Armenia for military purposes is more than Azerbaijani in
percentage comparison.
"Three years ago, Armenia was in talks with international institutions
for a loan. International financial institutions have demanded
additional guarantees for its issue. Armenia began to negotiate with
Fitch to get guarantees. After the activities of the Armenian lobby
the Fitch international rating agency has agreed to provide a letter
of guarantee to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund,
but has put forward a condition that a letter of guarantee stating
that no war will be in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict must
be given," Ahmedoglu noted.
They presented to Fitch a letter of guarantee that the OSCE Minsk
Group, and three co-chairs will not allow the war in Nagorno-Karabakh
region, he said. From the obtained credits Armenia provided funds
for weapons.
"The sudden increase in funds allocated by Armenia for arms, which
began in 2009, is connected with it. Thus, the mediators, using the
fact they will not allow the war in the region as a cover actually
helped to arm Armenia. Maybe, mediators saw in Armenia's arming
factor that will prevent war. But the result is obvious: the region
is now more ready for war than for peace. While the war has not begun,
it can be prevented," said the analyst.
If we consider that the mediators by their visits deceived their
countries' leaders, we consider it useful to change the method of
their activities, he said.
"The three co-chairs for a long time - from several weeks to several
months - while being in the region, begin to organize a dialogue
between the communities of Nagorno-Karabakh, establish it and bring
the number of participants in a dialogue from each side to at least
500 people. It would be better to conduct systematically organized
dialogues on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, in the cities of
Shusha and Khankendi. With the organization of dialogue between the
Armenian and Azerbaijani communities of Nagorno-Karabakh foundation
is laid for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Nagorno-Karabakh,"
said Ahmedoglu.
Not only Russia but the United States can exert military pressure
today on, he said.
"The upcoming parliamentary elections, and the expected military
strikes on Iran, increased military pressure of the U.S. on Armenia.
Meetings held by the Armenian defense minister in the United
States, and in particular with the U.S. Secretary of Defense and
the heads of the CIA, give an idea of their contents. If there are
no serious objective efforts of mediators, their hard work, then war
is inevitable," added the analyst.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France and the U.S. -
are currently holding peace negotiations.
Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four
resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the
surrounding regions.
From: A. Papazian