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GLOBAL TRENDS 2030 REPORT SAYS TURKEY TO BE ONE OF INFLUENTIAL COUNTRIES
Journal of Turkish Weekly
May 2 2012
EU Global Trends Report said "Turkey will take an influential role
in the globalising world by 2030."
According to "Global Trends 2030" report, Turkey will thrive.
According to EU experts, Turkey will be taking its place in the
globalising world by 2030 but there are doubts over Turkey's full
membership to the European Union.
The 2010 European Union Budget provided the European Commission for
two years with necessary financing to explore the 'long-term trends on
major policy issues facing the EU' as a pilot project. Project shaped
up the European Union Institute for Security Studies' report. Report
highlights that by 2030, there will be a multipolar world and none
of the countries will be able to carry on dominating individually.
The report underlines that the US is likely to be the world's major
military power, however China's military will keep growing. Present
trends seem to show that there won't be single hegemonic world power.
US and China will be the most influential countries of 2030. Besides,
India will keep gaining power. Additionally, Russia and Japan will
lose the great power status by 2030.
Polycentrism will head towards Asia with the accompany of economic
power, where over half of the world's population will be concentrated
by 2030. Report supposes that China will be the largest economic
power with 19 percent share of world gross domestic product. Rising
middle-power countries will become more prominent. These include
Indonesia, Turkey, and South Africa who are members of the G20 already.
Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey are more likely to take a bigger
role by 2030 cause these counties have potentials on improving their
social and economical modernization as well as human development,
said the report.
On its view about Turkey, the report says, "Turkey has been a middle
power for most of the last two centuries, and its elites and people
are confident about the country's global and regional position.
Current trends suggest Turkey will maintain and even bolster its
status as a middle power in demographic, economic, territorial and
military terms. Indicators on economic growth, political stability and
democratisation, political and cultural influence abroad, and citizen
and elite confidence point in this direction. Turkey is also likely
to become a pivotal regional power. Turkish citizens, capital and
institutions will continue to integrate with the global economy and
network society; and ties with the EU and Turkey's immediate neighbours
and other regions will become deeper and denser. The recent emphasis
on Turkey's role in the Middle East should be balanced by an awareness
of the country's relations with the EU, the Balkans, the Black Sea,
Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Mediterranean and the US,
and of its evolving and newly emergent links with the rest of Asia,
Africa and the Americas."
Turkey's role on globalizing world will be shaped by its work
and interests within international groups such as NATO, G20, the
Organization of the Islamic Cooperation and the EU. Report points out,
"It is difficult to predict whether Turkey will join the EU by 2030
as there are both push and pull factors. Turkey may opt to work with
different countries to further its interests in a rapidly changing
Middle East, but this is unlikely to become an alternative to EU
integration. To pursue a middle power career, Turkey must address key
weaknesses, including unresolved minority issues (Kurdish and Armenian
claims and rights), energy dependency, an environmentally unsustainable
development model and the mismanagement of natural resources, human
development shortcomings, and its exposure to potentially devastating
seismic activity."
The report states that European countries such as Britain, France
and Germany will gain power in a polycentric world especially if the
pace of European integration is not cracked. However, they may take
an individual global role and be recognized as strategic players in
their own right. Furthermore, if the European Union keeps developing,
improves the pace of economic growth and finds solutions to the debt
crisis, they will become more stronger within the international arena
and be more influential globally.
The report states that by 2030 all the Balkan countries are likely
to be members of the EU, however there will be problems over border
conflicts and internal disputes, particularly in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The report also mentions the Cyprus issue and Turkish-Armenian
reconciliations. It states that "the division of Cyprus could be
mitigated by greater convergence between Turkey and the EU, but the
difficulties attending the process of enlargement to Turkey may persist
and render the solution of the Cyprus question more problematic. And
Turkish-Armenian reconciliation could pave the way for a resolution
of the conflict, although this may be difficult to achieve in the
coming decade."
Journal of Turkish Weekly
May 2 2012
EU Global Trends Report said "Turkey will take an influential role
in the globalising world by 2030."
According to "Global Trends 2030" report, Turkey will thrive.
According to EU experts, Turkey will be taking its place in the
globalising world by 2030 but there are doubts over Turkey's full
membership to the European Union.
The 2010 European Union Budget provided the European Commission for
two years with necessary financing to explore the 'long-term trends on
major policy issues facing the EU' as a pilot project. Project shaped
up the European Union Institute for Security Studies' report. Report
highlights that by 2030, there will be a multipolar world and none
of the countries will be able to carry on dominating individually.
The report underlines that the US is likely to be the world's major
military power, however China's military will keep growing. Present
trends seem to show that there won't be single hegemonic world power.
US and China will be the most influential countries of 2030. Besides,
India will keep gaining power. Additionally, Russia and Japan will
lose the great power status by 2030.
Polycentrism will head towards Asia with the accompany of economic
power, where over half of the world's population will be concentrated
by 2030. Report supposes that China will be the largest economic
power with 19 percent share of world gross domestic product. Rising
middle-power countries will become more prominent. These include
Indonesia, Turkey, and South Africa who are members of the G20 already.
Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey are more likely to take a bigger
role by 2030 cause these counties have potentials on improving their
social and economical modernization as well as human development,
said the report.
On its view about Turkey, the report says, "Turkey has been a middle
power for most of the last two centuries, and its elites and people
are confident about the country's global and regional position.
Current trends suggest Turkey will maintain and even bolster its
status as a middle power in demographic, economic, territorial and
military terms. Indicators on economic growth, political stability and
democratisation, political and cultural influence abroad, and citizen
and elite confidence point in this direction. Turkey is also likely
to become a pivotal regional power. Turkish citizens, capital and
institutions will continue to integrate with the global economy and
network society; and ties with the EU and Turkey's immediate neighbours
and other regions will become deeper and denser. The recent emphasis
on Turkey's role in the Middle East should be balanced by an awareness
of the country's relations with the EU, the Balkans, the Black Sea,
Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Mediterranean and the US,
and of its evolving and newly emergent links with the rest of Asia,
Africa and the Americas."
Turkey's role on globalizing world will be shaped by its work
and interests within international groups such as NATO, G20, the
Organization of the Islamic Cooperation and the EU. Report points out,
"It is difficult to predict whether Turkey will join the EU by 2030
as there are both push and pull factors. Turkey may opt to work with
different countries to further its interests in a rapidly changing
Middle East, but this is unlikely to become an alternative to EU
integration. To pursue a middle power career, Turkey must address key
weaknesses, including unresolved minority issues (Kurdish and Armenian
claims and rights), energy dependency, an environmentally unsustainable
development model and the mismanagement of natural resources, human
development shortcomings, and its exposure to potentially devastating
seismic activity."
The report states that European countries such as Britain, France
and Germany will gain power in a polycentric world especially if the
pace of European integration is not cracked. However, they may take
an individual global role and be recognized as strategic players in
their own right. Furthermore, if the European Union keeps developing,
improves the pace of economic growth and finds solutions to the debt
crisis, they will become more stronger within the international arena
and be more influential globally.
The report states that by 2030 all the Balkan countries are likely
to be members of the EU, however there will be problems over border
conflicts and internal disputes, particularly in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The report also mentions the Cyprus issue and Turkish-Armenian
reconciliations. It states that "the division of Cyprus could be
mitigated by greater convergence between Turkey and the EU, but the
difficulties attending the process of enlargement to Turkey may persist
and render the solution of the Cyprus question more problematic. And
Turkish-Armenian reconciliation could pave the way for a resolution
of the conflict, although this may be difficult to achieve in the
coming decade."