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Vote 2012: Exit poll shows no shift in power, but shift within power
http://armenianow.com/vote_2012/election_day/37885/gallup_international_exit_poll_parliamentary_elect ions
Election Day | 06.05.12 | 21:54
Photo: news.armeniatv.com
Exit polling of Sunday's parliamentary election in Armenia conducted
by Gallup International indicate an expected victory for the two
primary parties of the current ruling coalition - the Republican Party
of Armenia (RPA) and the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP).
Estimations by the popular and respected polling agency based on
interviews of 25,000 voters through 6 p.m. - two hours before
Armenia's 1,982 polling stations closed - show that the RPA is
expected to take 44.4 percent of the vote, with its coalition partner,
PAP, garnering 28.8 percent.
A distant third among predicted qualifiers for National Assembly seats
is the Armenian National Congress, the lead party of Armenia's
oppositional movement, with just 6.33 percent, barely out-drawing the
third member of the ruling coalition, Orinats Yerkir, which is
expected to get 6.14 percent.
The Heritage party polled at 5.92, while the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation Dashnaktsutyun can expect 5.18 percent according to Gallup.
If the estimations hold - and Gallup exit figures typically closely
match official results - the numbers would say that while the power
coalition of the government has not changed, the dynamic within the
ruling body has shifted.
Today's vote, according to Gallup, would indicate that the Prosperous
Armenia Party has significantly increased its influence since the 2007
parliamentary election.
If the Gallup numbers hold, it would mean that the gap between the RPA
and the PAP has considerably closed, as, in 2007, Republican Party
votes more than doubled Prosperous votes - at 33 percent to 15
percent, respectively, whereas today the difference is some 16 percent
in favor of the RPA.
The `loser' among those who passed the five-percent threshold into the
next parliament would appear to be the Dashnaks [ARF], whose showing
on Sunday is less than half the percentage of votes the ARF got in
2007, when it took 13.16 percent. However, during the 2007
parliamentary vote, the ANC was not yet an oppositional rival, as the
bloc of parties emerged only after former president Levon
Ter-Petrosyan made his political comeback in late 2007, prior to the
2008 presidential election. It would appear according to Gallup, then,
that oppositional loyalties split among those who prefer the ANC to
ARF, as it concerns the next parliament.
The Heritage Party, led by former Minister of Foreign Affairs Raffi
Hovannisian, is expected to poll almost exactly as it did in 2007,
when it took 6 percent of votes.
From: A. Papazian
http://armenianow.com/vote_2012/election_day/37885/gallup_international_exit_poll_parliamentary_elect ions
Election Day | 06.05.12 | 21:54
Photo: news.armeniatv.com
Exit polling of Sunday's parliamentary election in Armenia conducted
by Gallup International indicate an expected victory for the two
primary parties of the current ruling coalition - the Republican Party
of Armenia (RPA) and the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP).
Estimations by the popular and respected polling agency based on
interviews of 25,000 voters through 6 p.m. - two hours before
Armenia's 1,982 polling stations closed - show that the RPA is
expected to take 44.4 percent of the vote, with its coalition partner,
PAP, garnering 28.8 percent.
A distant third among predicted qualifiers for National Assembly seats
is the Armenian National Congress, the lead party of Armenia's
oppositional movement, with just 6.33 percent, barely out-drawing the
third member of the ruling coalition, Orinats Yerkir, which is
expected to get 6.14 percent.
The Heritage party polled at 5.92, while the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation Dashnaktsutyun can expect 5.18 percent according to Gallup.
If the estimations hold - and Gallup exit figures typically closely
match official results - the numbers would say that while the power
coalition of the government has not changed, the dynamic within the
ruling body has shifted.
Today's vote, according to Gallup, would indicate that the Prosperous
Armenia Party has significantly increased its influence since the 2007
parliamentary election.
If the Gallup numbers hold, it would mean that the gap between the RPA
and the PAP has considerably closed, as, in 2007, Republican Party
votes more than doubled Prosperous votes - at 33 percent to 15
percent, respectively, whereas today the difference is some 16 percent
in favor of the RPA.
The `loser' among those who passed the five-percent threshold into the
next parliament would appear to be the Dashnaks [ARF], whose showing
on Sunday is less than half the percentage of votes the ARF got in
2007, when it took 13.16 percent. However, during the 2007
parliamentary vote, the ANC was not yet an oppositional rival, as the
bloc of parties emerged only after former president Levon
Ter-Petrosyan made his political comeback in late 2007, prior to the
2008 presidential election. It would appear according to Gallup, then,
that oppositional loyalties split among those who prefer the ANC to
ARF, as it concerns the next parliament.
The Heritage Party, led by former Minister of Foreign Affairs Raffi
Hovannisian, is expected to poll almost exactly as it did in 2007,
when it took 6 percent of votes.
From: A. Papazian