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BusinessWeek / Bloomberg
May 6 2012
Armenia's Ruling Party Poised to Win Parliamentary Elections
By Helena Bedwell on May 06, 2012
Armenia's ruling party is poised to win parliamentary elections today
as the country votes in the first balloting for the legislature since
a 2008 presidential vote that triggered deadly protests.
President Serzh Sargsyan's Republican Party may receive 41 percent of
the votes today, compared with 33 percent for the junior coalition
party Prosperous Armenia, according to Brussels-based European Friends
of Armenia. Exit polls are due after voting ends at 8 p.m. in Yerevan,
the capital. The two parties haven't said if they would renew their
alliance.
Ten people died in clashes between police and protesters after
Sargsyan defeated Levon Ter-Petrosyan, a former president, in the 2008
vote that the opposition claimed was rigged. Ter- Petrosyan's Armenian
National Congress opposition bloc threatened to protest again if there
is election fraud. The Republican party being forced to form a new
coalition may help foster democracy, according to Lilit Gevorgyan, an
analyst at IHS Global Insight in London.
The election `is likely to bring an end to the absolute parliamentary
majority of the presidential party,' Gevorgyan wrote in an e-mail.
`The vote could serve as a model for the wider region for peaceful
transition from the highly centralized political system to a more
pluralistic political landscape.'
Rule of Law, a third coalition party, had 5.4 percent support, the
opposition Heritage party was at 6.5 percent, Armenian Revolutionary
Federation at 6 percent and Armenian National Congress had 4.3 percent
support, according to the April 17-22 poll by European Friends of
Armenia, which surveyed 1,600 voting-age adults. The margin of error
is 2.4 percentage points.
Limiting Demonstrations
Ter-Petrosyan returning to parliament may help quell discontent,
limiting potential demonstrations, Richard Giragosyan, the director of
the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center, said in a phone interview.
Armenia, which borders Iran and Turkey, is embroiled in a 20-year
territorial dispute with neighboring Azerbaijan that threatens to
provoke renewed conflict in the South Caucasus, risking oil supplies
from the region. Sargsyan, 57, was born in the Nagorno-Karabakh region
that's at the center of the feud.
Tensions are rising over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian- majority
territory previously under Azeri control, prompting a `spiraling arms
race' between the two former Soviet states, the International Crisis
Group in Brussels said in February.
Potential Flashpoint
Oil-exporting Azerbaijan and landlocked Armenia fought a war over
Nagorno-Karabakh after the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 that
left tens of thousands of people dead and more than 1 million
displaced. The territory remains a potential flashpoint in a region
where Russia in 2008 fought a five-day war with Georgia after
separatist tensions flared up.
Surging oil prices allowed Azerbaijan to double military spending to
more than $2 billion last year and emboldened Aliyev to threaten the
use of military force to regain Nagorno- Karabakh. Russia, which
brokered a cease-fire in 1994, last year failed to bridge the divide
when President Dmitry Medvedev met Sargsyan and Azeri leader Ilham
Aliyev to persuade them to agree on a roadmap for resolving the status
of the disputed territory.
Armenia, a former Soviet nation of 3.3 million, became independent in
1991. The economy is expected to expand 4.2 percent in 2012, Finance
Minister Vache Gabrielyan said last month. Inflation slowed to 1.9
percent in April, after accelerating to 7.7 percent in 2011, mainly on
higher costs on food.
The government expects a boost to the economy from the possible
reopening of its border with Turkey, which closed it in 1993 to
protest Armenia's occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. The two nations have
yet to ratify a 2009 U.S.-supported agreement to re-establish ties.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-06/armenia-s-ruling-party-poised-to-win-parliamentary-elections
From: Baghdasarian
May 6 2012
Armenia's Ruling Party Poised to Win Parliamentary Elections
By Helena Bedwell on May 06, 2012
Armenia's ruling party is poised to win parliamentary elections today
as the country votes in the first balloting for the legislature since
a 2008 presidential vote that triggered deadly protests.
President Serzh Sargsyan's Republican Party may receive 41 percent of
the votes today, compared with 33 percent for the junior coalition
party Prosperous Armenia, according to Brussels-based European Friends
of Armenia. Exit polls are due after voting ends at 8 p.m. in Yerevan,
the capital. The two parties haven't said if they would renew their
alliance.
Ten people died in clashes between police and protesters after
Sargsyan defeated Levon Ter-Petrosyan, a former president, in the 2008
vote that the opposition claimed was rigged. Ter- Petrosyan's Armenian
National Congress opposition bloc threatened to protest again if there
is election fraud. The Republican party being forced to form a new
coalition may help foster democracy, according to Lilit Gevorgyan, an
analyst at IHS Global Insight in London.
The election `is likely to bring an end to the absolute parliamentary
majority of the presidential party,' Gevorgyan wrote in an e-mail.
`The vote could serve as a model for the wider region for peaceful
transition from the highly centralized political system to a more
pluralistic political landscape.'
Rule of Law, a third coalition party, had 5.4 percent support, the
opposition Heritage party was at 6.5 percent, Armenian Revolutionary
Federation at 6 percent and Armenian National Congress had 4.3 percent
support, according to the April 17-22 poll by European Friends of
Armenia, which surveyed 1,600 voting-age adults. The margin of error
is 2.4 percentage points.
Limiting Demonstrations
Ter-Petrosyan returning to parliament may help quell discontent,
limiting potential demonstrations, Richard Giragosyan, the director of
the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center, said in a phone interview.
Armenia, which borders Iran and Turkey, is embroiled in a 20-year
territorial dispute with neighboring Azerbaijan that threatens to
provoke renewed conflict in the South Caucasus, risking oil supplies
from the region. Sargsyan, 57, was born in the Nagorno-Karabakh region
that's at the center of the feud.
Tensions are rising over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian- majority
territory previously under Azeri control, prompting a `spiraling arms
race' between the two former Soviet states, the International Crisis
Group in Brussels said in February.
Potential Flashpoint
Oil-exporting Azerbaijan and landlocked Armenia fought a war over
Nagorno-Karabakh after the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 that
left tens of thousands of people dead and more than 1 million
displaced. The territory remains a potential flashpoint in a region
where Russia in 2008 fought a five-day war with Georgia after
separatist tensions flared up.
Surging oil prices allowed Azerbaijan to double military spending to
more than $2 billion last year and emboldened Aliyev to threaten the
use of military force to regain Nagorno- Karabakh. Russia, which
brokered a cease-fire in 1994, last year failed to bridge the divide
when President Dmitry Medvedev met Sargsyan and Azeri leader Ilham
Aliyev to persuade them to agree on a roadmap for resolving the status
of the disputed territory.
Armenia, a former Soviet nation of 3.3 million, became independent in
1991. The economy is expected to expand 4.2 percent in 2012, Finance
Minister Vache Gabrielyan said last month. Inflation slowed to 1.9
percent in April, after accelerating to 7.7 percent in 2011, mainly on
higher costs on food.
The government expects a boost to the economy from the possible
reopening of its border with Turkey, which closed it in 1993 to
protest Armenia's occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. The two nations have
yet to ratify a 2009 U.S.-supported agreement to re-establish ties.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-06/armenia-s-ruling-party-poised-to-win-parliamentary-elections
From: Baghdasarian