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PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN ARMENIA: FULFILLED EXPECTATIONS
Vestnik Kavkaza
May 7 2012
Russia
The elections to the National Assembly, the parliament of the country,
were held on May, 6 in Armenia. Arman Gevorgyan, Armenian political
scientist, commented the results of the elections for Vestnik Kavkaza.
In his view, the big surprise was that the "Rule of Law" party overcame
the 5 percent barrier and entered the National Assembly.
"Personally, I thought that it would not receive more than two percent
of the vote, given the steps made by the leader of the party after
the 2008 presidential election. He seemed to have completely lost his
electorate. Then in 2008 he won 16% of the vote. These parliamentary
elections demonstrated that there is still more than 5% of the voters
who trust Artur Baghdasaryan," Arman Gevorgyan said.
The results of the other political forces came as no surprise. "The
ruling Republican Party of Armenia, which has the largest resources,
used it and took first place".
At the same time, what causes frustration is the fact that the face
of this party is President Serzh Sargsyan. It turned out that all
the issues were represented by the president, suggesting that the
Republican Party has merely turned into a monopoly, into a presidential
party. The RPA now is different from the RPA of the 90's, because it
is obvious that the Republican Party then was not a one-man party,"
the analyst says.
Arman Gevorkian mentioned another very important fact - the Republican
Party has managed to take 50% plus one mandate, which means that
the Republican Party has an opportunity to form a government without
looking to the other parties in the National Assembly.
According to the analyst, "Prosperous Armenia" showed "a strong
performance", getting twice as many votes than in the previous
elections, although the party, "of course, hoped for better results."
Arman Gevorgyan, however, said that it is difficult to predict whether
this party will agree to form a coalition with the Republican Party,
as it did in 2007. In his opinion, it first of all needs an invitation
from the Republican party to form such a coalition, which is still
questionable. "The RPA has a stable majority; moreover, it may form a
coalition together with more docile counterparts with much smaller
requirements. For example, we can talk about the "Rule of Law"
party or "Legacy", which can simply add to Republican votes in the
parliament without putting forward any particular political claims,"
the Armenian political scientist said.
Talking about the results of a potential coalition to "Prosperous
Armenia", Arman Gevorgyan said that it might put the party in
a difficult situation with its electorate: "If the PAP enters the
ruling coalition, it gets a problem with those who voted for the PAP
as an alternative, though not as the opposition, but as an alternative
to the authorities. Will the voters understand this? This is a very
serious problem."
"It should be noted that the opposition may also be different, it
can be quite constructive, or very tough and radical. It is not clear
which choices will be made by the PAP."
The prospects for the radical opposition, represented by the Armenian
National Congress, that has overcame the 7% barrier, is described
by Arman Gevorgyan as "not very successful". "In order to continue
to retain its political potential, the ANC must decide questions of
financing. Their funding was insufficient. And this is a very important
question that probably should be addressed. I guess that the ANC
would be a real effective opposition to the ruling Republican Party."
The expert believes that, after such a result in the parliamentary
elections, the leader of the ANC - former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan
- will be nominated for the presidential elections in 2013. According
to him, a decision on this issue will probably become known by the
end of the summer.
Another opposition party, ARF "Dashnaktsutiun", in comparison with
2007 has lost more than half of its seats (it got 6 instead of 16).
"The ARF was able to withdraw from the ruling coalition, and it
took two years to regain the confidence of at least some of their
constituents. I'm guessing that the ARF will remain in opposition to
gain points for its political future," the expert said.
Arman Gevorgyan added that the result of the parliamentary elections
show that president Serzh Sarkissian strengthened his position in the
political system of the country before the presidential election in
2013: "If no major force interferes, Serzh Sargsyan has a very good
chance of staying in office for a second term."
Susanna Petrosian in Yerevan. Specially for Vestnik Kavkaza
Vestnik Kavkaza
May 7 2012
Russia
The elections to the National Assembly, the parliament of the country,
were held on May, 6 in Armenia. Arman Gevorgyan, Armenian political
scientist, commented the results of the elections for Vestnik Kavkaza.
In his view, the big surprise was that the "Rule of Law" party overcame
the 5 percent barrier and entered the National Assembly.
"Personally, I thought that it would not receive more than two percent
of the vote, given the steps made by the leader of the party after
the 2008 presidential election. He seemed to have completely lost his
electorate. Then in 2008 he won 16% of the vote. These parliamentary
elections demonstrated that there is still more than 5% of the voters
who trust Artur Baghdasaryan," Arman Gevorgyan said.
The results of the other political forces came as no surprise. "The
ruling Republican Party of Armenia, which has the largest resources,
used it and took first place".
At the same time, what causes frustration is the fact that the face
of this party is President Serzh Sargsyan. It turned out that all
the issues were represented by the president, suggesting that the
Republican Party has merely turned into a monopoly, into a presidential
party. The RPA now is different from the RPA of the 90's, because it
is obvious that the Republican Party then was not a one-man party,"
the analyst says.
Arman Gevorkian mentioned another very important fact - the Republican
Party has managed to take 50% plus one mandate, which means that
the Republican Party has an opportunity to form a government without
looking to the other parties in the National Assembly.
According to the analyst, "Prosperous Armenia" showed "a strong
performance", getting twice as many votes than in the previous
elections, although the party, "of course, hoped for better results."
Arman Gevorgyan, however, said that it is difficult to predict whether
this party will agree to form a coalition with the Republican Party,
as it did in 2007. In his opinion, it first of all needs an invitation
from the Republican party to form such a coalition, which is still
questionable. "The RPA has a stable majority; moreover, it may form a
coalition together with more docile counterparts with much smaller
requirements. For example, we can talk about the "Rule of Law"
party or "Legacy", which can simply add to Republican votes in the
parliament without putting forward any particular political claims,"
the Armenian political scientist said.
Talking about the results of a potential coalition to "Prosperous
Armenia", Arman Gevorgyan said that it might put the party in
a difficult situation with its electorate: "If the PAP enters the
ruling coalition, it gets a problem with those who voted for the PAP
as an alternative, though not as the opposition, but as an alternative
to the authorities. Will the voters understand this? This is a very
serious problem."
"It should be noted that the opposition may also be different, it
can be quite constructive, or very tough and radical. It is not clear
which choices will be made by the PAP."
The prospects for the radical opposition, represented by the Armenian
National Congress, that has overcame the 7% barrier, is described
by Arman Gevorgyan as "not very successful". "In order to continue
to retain its political potential, the ANC must decide questions of
financing. Their funding was insufficient. And this is a very important
question that probably should be addressed. I guess that the ANC
would be a real effective opposition to the ruling Republican Party."
The expert believes that, after such a result in the parliamentary
elections, the leader of the ANC - former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan
- will be nominated for the presidential elections in 2013. According
to him, a decision on this issue will probably become known by the
end of the summer.
Another opposition party, ARF "Dashnaktsutiun", in comparison with
2007 has lost more than half of its seats (it got 6 instead of 16).
"The ARF was able to withdraw from the ruling coalition, and it
took two years to regain the confidence of at least some of their
constituents. I'm guessing that the ARF will remain in opposition to
gain points for its political future," the expert said.
Arman Gevorgyan added that the result of the parliamentary elections
show that president Serzh Sarkissian strengthened his position in the
political system of the country before the presidential election in
2013: "If no major force interferes, Serzh Sargsyan has a very good
chance of staying in office for a second term."
Susanna Petrosian in Yerevan. Specially for Vestnik Kavkaza