Tweet
PA WILL NOT FORM COALITION
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments26105.html
Published: 10:40:11 - 08/05/2012
The ex-foreign minister Vartan Oskanian, Prosperous Armenia, stated
the result of the parliamentary elections do not reflect the reality,
and he is against forming a coalition with the Republican Party which
won absolute majority.
Although PA is officially silent, the leader of the party Gagik
Tarukyan will hardly form a coalition with the Republican Party. Most
probably, the intrigue for the PA is not forming or not forming
coalition but accepting or not accepting the result of the election.
The point is that forming a coalition will be the end of the biography
of the Prosperous Armenia Party. Then Prosperous Armenia posturing
as opposition in the parliamentary election will stop being perceived
as a domestic subject and will be another Rule of Law Party.
However, though Vartan Oskanian stated that the election return does
not reflect the opinion of the society, it is hardly possible that the
Prosperous Armenia Party will not recognize the election result. The
point is that part of this party's potential is ensured by being
a pro-government party. Once the PA is not part of the government,
the PA leader will find himself in a tough economic situation, and
if it opposes to the Republican Party, half or even more than half
of the resource of the party may simply vanish, and mass defection
will follow, from officials to ordinary citizens who got placement
under PA quota.
Perhaps Tsarukyan knows about this prospect. At the same time, he
knows the political danger of forming coalition with the Republican
Party. Most probably, the PA will choose the golden middle and will
remain opposition but in the same systemic logic with the Republican
Party. It should not be confused with fake opposition or opposition
to let.
Simply with a constant system of mutual interests the Republican Party
and the PA will be able to agree on the rules of expression of their
controversies and mutual guarantees of ownership.
The intrigue is whether Gagik Tsarukyan will support Serzh Sargsyan
in the presidential election. The possibility is low. PA will most
probably nominate Vartan Oskanian. Moreover, it is not ruled out
that he will replace Gagik Tsarukyan as leader of the party during
the next congress of this party. After all, the leader of the PA
Gagik Tsarukyan stated in 2011 that he is not clinging to the post
of leader and if he thinks someone else will rule the party better,
he will gladly leave this post.
Moreover, this step would be good PR for Prosperous Armenia, as he
would thus indicate his commitment to dividing business and politics:
the party leader leaves, opening the way for political crystallization
and improvement of the party, especially that Vartan Oskanian's
behavior is characterized by the tendency and vector of political
crystallization of PA.
The essential issue is whether the Republicans will agree with the
opposition role of Prosperous Armenia. In the long run, judging by
the past two elections where the PA was the main opponent to the RPA,
this role is not so dangerous for the RPA. Moreover, in case of a
systemic agreement and a clear mechanism of mutual guarantees the
PA as opposition will be one of the best options for the RPA. In
addition, it will enable the RPA to overcome the next presidential
election because this election will be part of the mutual agreement
on the new rules of the game rather than a target or goal, while the
rules will be finalized before the stage 2017-2018.
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments26105.html
Published: 10:40:11 - 08/05/2012
The ex-foreign minister Vartan Oskanian, Prosperous Armenia, stated
the result of the parliamentary elections do not reflect the reality,
and he is against forming a coalition with the Republican Party which
won absolute majority.
Although PA is officially silent, the leader of the party Gagik
Tarukyan will hardly form a coalition with the Republican Party. Most
probably, the intrigue for the PA is not forming or not forming
coalition but accepting or not accepting the result of the election.
The point is that forming a coalition will be the end of the biography
of the Prosperous Armenia Party. Then Prosperous Armenia posturing
as opposition in the parliamentary election will stop being perceived
as a domestic subject and will be another Rule of Law Party.
However, though Vartan Oskanian stated that the election return does
not reflect the opinion of the society, it is hardly possible that the
Prosperous Armenia Party will not recognize the election result. The
point is that part of this party's potential is ensured by being
a pro-government party. Once the PA is not part of the government,
the PA leader will find himself in a tough economic situation, and
if it opposes to the Republican Party, half or even more than half
of the resource of the party may simply vanish, and mass defection
will follow, from officials to ordinary citizens who got placement
under PA quota.
Perhaps Tsarukyan knows about this prospect. At the same time, he
knows the political danger of forming coalition with the Republican
Party. Most probably, the PA will choose the golden middle and will
remain opposition but in the same systemic logic with the Republican
Party. It should not be confused with fake opposition or opposition
to let.
Simply with a constant system of mutual interests the Republican Party
and the PA will be able to agree on the rules of expression of their
controversies and mutual guarantees of ownership.
The intrigue is whether Gagik Tsarukyan will support Serzh Sargsyan
in the presidential election. The possibility is low. PA will most
probably nominate Vartan Oskanian. Moreover, it is not ruled out
that he will replace Gagik Tsarukyan as leader of the party during
the next congress of this party. After all, the leader of the PA
Gagik Tsarukyan stated in 2011 that he is not clinging to the post
of leader and if he thinks someone else will rule the party better,
he will gladly leave this post.
Moreover, this step would be good PR for Prosperous Armenia, as he
would thus indicate his commitment to dividing business and politics:
the party leader leaves, opening the way for political crystallization
and improvement of the party, especially that Vartan Oskanian's
behavior is characterized by the tendency and vector of political
crystallization of PA.
The essential issue is whether the Republicans will agree with the
opposition role of Prosperous Armenia. In the long run, judging by
the past two elections where the PA was the main opponent to the RPA,
this role is not so dangerous for the RPA. Moreover, in case of a
systemic agreement and a clear mechanism of mutual guarantees the
PA as opposition will be one of the best options for the RPA. In
addition, it will enable the RPA to overcome the next presidential
election because this election will be part of the mutual agreement
on the new rules of the game rather than a target or goal, while the
rules will be finalized before the stage 2017-2018.