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Today's Zaman, Turkey
May 7 2012
Election results in four countries offer opportunities, risks for Turkey
7 May 2012 / E. BARIÅ? ALTINTAÅ?, Ä°STANBUL
The results of the elections held in France, Serbia, Armenia and
Greece over the weekend indicate that there will be shifts in the
balances in these countries, and experts agree that both opportunities
and risks are in store in terms of the relations of these nations with
Turkey.
In France, Socialist leader François Hollande won nearly 52 percent of
the vote in Sunday's runoff, which analysts agree is more than likely
to normalize France's strained relations with Turkey under Nicolas
Sarkozy and his conservative Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party,
known for his staunch opposition to Turkish membership in the EU. The
elections indicate a new era is beginning between the two countries.
Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an in remarks made on Monday pointed this out,
saying he hopes for a `very different' relationship with France
Turkish President Abdullah Gül sent a letter to Hollande on Sunday
night, congratulating the new president on his electoral victory. Gül
reportedly invited his new French counterpart to `open a new page' in
relations between the two countries amid strained ties.
Gül, sending a letter through the Turkish Embassy in Paris, wished
Hollande luck during his presidency and said Turkey wants to tackle
the problems it has had with France in the past few years.
Hollande's election campaign director, Pierre Moscovici, also said in
a statement that Hollande would like to have a telephone conversation
with ErdoÄ?an.
`Relations with France received a heavy blow during the term of
Sarkozy,' said Sinan Ã`lgen, head of the Ä°stanbul-based Center for
Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM). `The change in government
will end France's staunch opposition to Turkish membership in the EU.
Talks on five chapters that have been unopened due to a French veto
are likely to reopen,' he added.
But it will not be all roses and no thorns, notes Beril DedeoÄ?lu, an
international relations professor from Galatasaray University.
`Hollande as a socialist politician will have high expectations from
Turkey regarding democratization, human rights and transparency. And
if Turkey gets angry with this, strains might reappear in relations.'
She noted that issues such as some of the controversial judicial
processes in Turkey or issues such as freedom of expression might come
up as thorns in relations; however, DedeoÄ?lu noted that Hollande's
election certainly opens a softer tone in relations.
Journalist Cengiz Aktar said Hollande is a soft-spoken, unaggressive
man and that his personality is likely to contribute to normalization
in France and Turkey's relations, following a period of a highly
hostile French president who often looked down upon Turkey and was
openly Islamophobic.
Hollande beat conservative Sarkozy with 51.7 percent of Sunday's vote
after a campaign dominated by the economic crisis that has felled 10
other European leaders since late 2009. The new president is expected
to be sworn in on May 15.
Uncertainty, fragmented parliament in Greece
In Greece, voters over the weekend punished the two main parties in
their elections, giving a boost to the far right and the far left. The
long term results of the rise of the Greek neo-Nazi party, Golden
Dawn, and the far right Independent Greeks will certainly not be
positive for relations with Turkey, but the country has too much going
on right now to even concentrate on longstanding issues with Turkey
such as the impasse on Cyprus or territorial clashes over the Aegean.
Herkül Millas, an expert on Turkish-Greece relations, says difficult
days are ahead for Greece as uncertainty remains in place over whether
a government can be formed, or if it can implement austerity policies
expected by the EU -- given the voters' strong reaction to austerity
policies. According to Millas, even with a stronger government and a
weaker opposition, Greece was having a hard time following EU
policies.
EDAM's Ã`lgen agreed, saying, `Greece is headed for a multi-party
coalition, and it won't be likely for them to maintain political or
economic stability.' However, he noted that the entry of formerly
marginal far-right parties will negatively affect relations with
Turkey.
Erhan Türbedar, a foreign policy analyst with the Economic Policy
Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), said although marginal parties
are unlikely to be part of the government their newfound power in
Greek politics certainly was an unwelcome development. He also said
their presence is likely to negatively affect ties with Brussels.
New Democracy and socialist PASOK, the only major parties supporting a
130 billion euro EU/IMF aid program, won just over 32 percent of the
vote and only 149 out of 300 parliament seats. Greece's parliament
will be the most fragmented for decades and the only way to a workable
coalition looks like some kind of rollback of the terms of the
bailout, something which lenders and northern European countries
firmly reject.
Golden Dawn won between 5 to 7 per cent of the vote according to exit
polls, giving them representation in parliament for the first time in
Greek history.
The biggest beneficiary of the protest vote was the Left Coalition
party of Greece's youngest political leader, Alexis Tsipras. He won
nearly 17 percent of the vote compared to 5 percent in the last
election three years ago.
New path for Serbia
In Serbia, the right-wing Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) appeared to
be narrowly ahead of the liberal Democratic Party (DS) as of Monday,
with the two candidates facing a run-off for the presidency on May 20.
SNS's success is likely to affect relations with this country
negatively, although Turkey and Serbia have developed friendly ties
over the past few years.
EDAM's Ã`lgen noted: `Over the past few years, Serbia's relations with
Turkey have improved greatly. Turkey was successful in mediating with
Bosnia. The election results will bring about Serbia's getting closer
to Russia, undermining Turkey's recent confidence in Serbia.'
The SNS won 24.7 percent, ahead of the Democrats on 23.2 percent. The
Democrats polled 38 percent in the last election in 2008, punished
this time for an economic downturn that has driven unemployment to 24
percent. But with 16.6 percent of the vote, the third-placed Socialist
Party (SPS), once led by Slobodan Milosevic, will likely cast the
crucial vote to decide who forms Serbia's next coalition government.
Relations unlikely to normalize soon in Armenia
In Armenia, the incumbent Sarksyan government's party was set to win
parliamentary elections on Monday, indicating that the current status
quo in relations is likely to be preserved, most experts agree.
Director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan told Today's
Zaman he didn't expect an important change in relations with Turkey.
He said most Armenian parties `more or less' agree that Armenia is
ready to normalize ties, but, added, `The problem is on the Turkish
side.' He recalled that a protocol signed between Turkey and Armenia
to normalize ties in 2009 included no preconditions regarding the
Karabakh dispute or recognition of the Armenian genocide. `When you
connect a hard process with another one that is harder you kill both,'
he said, adding, `We weren't the ones who closed the border.'
Artak Shakaryan, an independent analyst on Turkey-Armenian relations
said, presidential elections are usually more important than
parliamentary elections. `Foreign policy is decided by the president.
If Serzh Sarksyan is elected president again next year, we can expect
a review of the protocol.' He said relations with Turkey will come up
during the presidential election campaign `because all candidates will
use a more hawkish language on this issue.'
AZG Daily Editor-in Chief Hagop Avedikian agreed that Sarksyan was
likely to get re-elected as president and added that Turkey will need
to take a step to get a response from the Armenian side.
Elsewhere in the world, there were elections in Syria on Monday. The
opposition in Syria says the vote is a sham meant to preserve
President Bashar al-Assad's autocratic rule. The voting for Syria's
250-member parliament is unlikely to affect the course of Syria's
popular uprising, which began 14 months ago with largely peaceful
protests. Turkey is closely watching the elections in Syria, where,
according to UN figures, more than 9,000 people have been killed in
the turmoil, which some observers say is descending into a civil war.
*Gözde Nur Donat in Ankara and Celil SaÄ?ır in Yerevan contributed to
this report.
From: Baghdasarian
May 7 2012
Election results in four countries offer opportunities, risks for Turkey
7 May 2012 / E. BARIÅ? ALTINTAÅ?, Ä°STANBUL
The results of the elections held in France, Serbia, Armenia and
Greece over the weekend indicate that there will be shifts in the
balances in these countries, and experts agree that both opportunities
and risks are in store in terms of the relations of these nations with
Turkey.
In France, Socialist leader François Hollande won nearly 52 percent of
the vote in Sunday's runoff, which analysts agree is more than likely
to normalize France's strained relations with Turkey under Nicolas
Sarkozy and his conservative Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party,
known for his staunch opposition to Turkish membership in the EU. The
elections indicate a new era is beginning between the two countries.
Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an in remarks made on Monday pointed this out,
saying he hopes for a `very different' relationship with France
Turkish President Abdullah Gül sent a letter to Hollande on Sunday
night, congratulating the new president on his electoral victory. Gül
reportedly invited his new French counterpart to `open a new page' in
relations between the two countries amid strained ties.
Gül, sending a letter through the Turkish Embassy in Paris, wished
Hollande luck during his presidency and said Turkey wants to tackle
the problems it has had with France in the past few years.
Hollande's election campaign director, Pierre Moscovici, also said in
a statement that Hollande would like to have a telephone conversation
with ErdoÄ?an.
`Relations with France received a heavy blow during the term of
Sarkozy,' said Sinan Ã`lgen, head of the Ä°stanbul-based Center for
Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM). `The change in government
will end France's staunch opposition to Turkish membership in the EU.
Talks on five chapters that have been unopened due to a French veto
are likely to reopen,' he added.
But it will not be all roses and no thorns, notes Beril DedeoÄ?lu, an
international relations professor from Galatasaray University.
`Hollande as a socialist politician will have high expectations from
Turkey regarding democratization, human rights and transparency. And
if Turkey gets angry with this, strains might reappear in relations.'
She noted that issues such as some of the controversial judicial
processes in Turkey or issues such as freedom of expression might come
up as thorns in relations; however, DedeoÄ?lu noted that Hollande's
election certainly opens a softer tone in relations.
Journalist Cengiz Aktar said Hollande is a soft-spoken, unaggressive
man and that his personality is likely to contribute to normalization
in France and Turkey's relations, following a period of a highly
hostile French president who often looked down upon Turkey and was
openly Islamophobic.
Hollande beat conservative Sarkozy with 51.7 percent of Sunday's vote
after a campaign dominated by the economic crisis that has felled 10
other European leaders since late 2009. The new president is expected
to be sworn in on May 15.
Uncertainty, fragmented parliament in Greece
In Greece, voters over the weekend punished the two main parties in
their elections, giving a boost to the far right and the far left. The
long term results of the rise of the Greek neo-Nazi party, Golden
Dawn, and the far right Independent Greeks will certainly not be
positive for relations with Turkey, but the country has too much going
on right now to even concentrate on longstanding issues with Turkey
such as the impasse on Cyprus or territorial clashes over the Aegean.
Herkül Millas, an expert on Turkish-Greece relations, says difficult
days are ahead for Greece as uncertainty remains in place over whether
a government can be formed, or if it can implement austerity policies
expected by the EU -- given the voters' strong reaction to austerity
policies. According to Millas, even with a stronger government and a
weaker opposition, Greece was having a hard time following EU
policies.
EDAM's Ã`lgen agreed, saying, `Greece is headed for a multi-party
coalition, and it won't be likely for them to maintain political or
economic stability.' However, he noted that the entry of formerly
marginal far-right parties will negatively affect relations with
Turkey.
Erhan Türbedar, a foreign policy analyst with the Economic Policy
Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), said although marginal parties
are unlikely to be part of the government their newfound power in
Greek politics certainly was an unwelcome development. He also said
their presence is likely to negatively affect ties with Brussels.
New Democracy and socialist PASOK, the only major parties supporting a
130 billion euro EU/IMF aid program, won just over 32 percent of the
vote and only 149 out of 300 parliament seats. Greece's parliament
will be the most fragmented for decades and the only way to a workable
coalition looks like some kind of rollback of the terms of the
bailout, something which lenders and northern European countries
firmly reject.
Golden Dawn won between 5 to 7 per cent of the vote according to exit
polls, giving them representation in parliament for the first time in
Greek history.
The biggest beneficiary of the protest vote was the Left Coalition
party of Greece's youngest political leader, Alexis Tsipras. He won
nearly 17 percent of the vote compared to 5 percent in the last
election three years ago.
New path for Serbia
In Serbia, the right-wing Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) appeared to
be narrowly ahead of the liberal Democratic Party (DS) as of Monday,
with the two candidates facing a run-off for the presidency on May 20.
SNS's success is likely to affect relations with this country
negatively, although Turkey and Serbia have developed friendly ties
over the past few years.
EDAM's Ã`lgen noted: `Over the past few years, Serbia's relations with
Turkey have improved greatly. Turkey was successful in mediating with
Bosnia. The election results will bring about Serbia's getting closer
to Russia, undermining Turkey's recent confidence in Serbia.'
The SNS won 24.7 percent, ahead of the Democrats on 23.2 percent. The
Democrats polled 38 percent in the last election in 2008, punished
this time for an economic downturn that has driven unemployment to 24
percent. But with 16.6 percent of the vote, the third-placed Socialist
Party (SPS), once led by Slobodan Milosevic, will likely cast the
crucial vote to decide who forms Serbia's next coalition government.
Relations unlikely to normalize soon in Armenia
In Armenia, the incumbent Sarksyan government's party was set to win
parliamentary elections on Monday, indicating that the current status
quo in relations is likely to be preserved, most experts agree.
Director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan told Today's
Zaman he didn't expect an important change in relations with Turkey.
He said most Armenian parties `more or less' agree that Armenia is
ready to normalize ties, but, added, `The problem is on the Turkish
side.' He recalled that a protocol signed between Turkey and Armenia
to normalize ties in 2009 included no preconditions regarding the
Karabakh dispute or recognition of the Armenian genocide. `When you
connect a hard process with another one that is harder you kill both,'
he said, adding, `We weren't the ones who closed the border.'
Artak Shakaryan, an independent analyst on Turkey-Armenian relations
said, presidential elections are usually more important than
parliamentary elections. `Foreign policy is decided by the president.
If Serzh Sarksyan is elected president again next year, we can expect
a review of the protocol.' He said relations with Turkey will come up
during the presidential election campaign `because all candidates will
use a more hawkish language on this issue.'
AZG Daily Editor-in Chief Hagop Avedikian agreed that Sarksyan was
likely to get re-elected as president and added that Turkey will need
to take a step to get a response from the Armenian side.
Elsewhere in the world, there were elections in Syria on Monday. The
opposition in Syria says the vote is a sham meant to preserve
President Bashar al-Assad's autocratic rule. The voting for Syria's
250-member parliament is unlikely to affect the course of Syria's
popular uprising, which began 14 months ago with largely peaceful
protests. Turkey is closely watching the elections in Syria, where,
according to UN figures, more than 9,000 people have been killed in
the turmoil, which some observers say is descending into a civil war.
*Gözde Nur Donat in Ankara and Celil SaÄ?ır in Yerevan contributed to
this report.
From: Baghdasarian