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Global Insight
May 7, 2012
Election 2012: Armenian Presidential Party Suffers Losses in Improved
Parliamentary Vote
by Lilit Gevorgyan
The Armenian opposition's attempts to end the presidential Republican
Party's absolute majority in parliament was successful in legislative
elections on 6 May, which marked a significant improvement compared
with previous elections over the past 15 years.
Anyone But HK
Armenia's Central Electoral Commission has yet to publish the full
results of yesterday's (6 May) parliamentary elections, but from the
preliminary results, based on the counting of most of the ballots, it
appears that the presidential Republican Party (HK) has emerged in the
lead with 44.5% of the vote. It is likely that the HK will not have an
absolute majority and will not be able to form a single-party
government, so will have to form a coalition. This is the result of
the opposition parties' calls for voters to end the monopoly of power
of President Serzhe Sargsyan's HK by voting for different parties.
The runner-up in the elections was the HK's current junior coalition
member, the Prosperous Armenia Party (BHK), which gained 30.20% of the
vote. Led by a wealthy former sportsman, Gagik Tsarukyan, BHK was the
most talked-about party during the election, as it broke away from HK
and emerged a much stronger party.
The Armenian National Congress (HAK), an umbrella organisation uniting
18 opposition groups and parties led by Armenia's charismatic first
president Levon Ter-Petrosyan, barely crossed the 7% entry threshold
for political blocs by gaining only 7.10%. This is a disappointing
outcome given that HAK has been waging an uninterrupted campaign since
the beginning of 2011 following the outbreak of Arab Spring uprisings
in North Africa. Ter-Petrosyan has called for a velvet revolution, a
slow dismantlement of the monopoly of power.
However, Ter-Petrosyan, who was first elected in an open, transparent
vote at the time of the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, is also
associated with creating the current political and economic elite
which has proven very resistant to change, hence his and HAK's overall
unpopularity. The Heritage Party, led by Raffi Hovhanessian, more or
less maintained its votes compared with 2007 by securing 5.79%, while
the over 120-year-old Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) barely
passed the entry threshold with 5.49% of the total votes. The Country
of Laws Party with 5.49% has previously been pro-presidential and
could join the HK in a coalition. The voter turnout in the election
was 60% .
Important Achievements
Despite shortcomings there were significant achievements in the
parliamentary election. These perhaps were best summarised by Radmila
ekerinska, the head of the Election Observation Mission of the OSCE
Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, who was quoted by
media as saying: "The election campaign was open and respected
fundamental freedoms, and the media offered broad and balanced
coverage during the official campaign period." But she also added that
"unfortunately, this was overshadowed by concerns over the accuracy of
voter lists and violations of the Electoral Code that created an
unequal playing field."
Mainstream media especially has improved its coverage of the election
campaign. While social media has long been a key forum for democratic
campaigning, the recent election campaign showed that media including
the state-owned channels also rose to the occasion, as noted by the
OSCE. An unprecedented rise in the number of privately owned
television channels helped the various political parties to present
their positions. This growing freedom of the media is a significant
achievement and is likely to remain after the election.
However, the biggest winners were the civic activist groups. Armenia's
civil society is taking shape and, although it is relatively
underdeveloped, there are encouraging signs, as shown in environmental
campaigning throughout the past months, as well as during the election
campaign, that it will gain further strength. Their biggest challenge
will be to galvanise the significant portion of the population who
remain disillusioned with the whole political system, perceiving it as
corrupt and preoccupied with power-sharing rather than fighting for
the improvement of voters' living standards.
Outlook and Implications
These negative attitudes are not simply apolitical ones but are views
that are reinforced by the obvious shortcomings of the Armenian
nascent democracy. These problems came under the limelight once again
in the election. While there was an improvement in election
campaigning, the intimidation of voters and especially independent
candidates remained, as in the case of Satik Seyranyan, for example.
Both the HK and the BHK, the two main parties, are associated with
oligarchs that many see as the root cause of many of the problems of
Armenia's struggling economy. Hence many voters have no faith that
replacing one party in power with another will make any difference.
Vote rigging, expensive charitable projects during the election
campaign and outright vote buying remain serious issues that both the
HK and the BHK are alleged to be involved in.
In addition, most of the parties made unrealistic pledges rather than
offered well-thought-out reforms. The pressing issues of foreign
policy, such as the ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan over the status
of the Armenian-populated Nagorno Karabakh entity, as well as failed
attempts to normalise relations with Turkey, were also issues. In
addition, many candidates shunned the opportunities offered by the
media for political debate, in many cases simply because they appeared
to lack the skills and knowledge.
There should be no illusions that Armenia still has a long road to go
before its democratic institutions are strong enough to sustain
government change and challenge attempts at curtailing individual
freedoms. However, there is real hope that, although imperfect in its
current form, changes are taking place, not through revolution but
through compromise and peaceful political processes, and these are the
beginning of creating a strong democratic country.
May 7, 2012
Election 2012: Armenian Presidential Party Suffers Losses in Improved
Parliamentary Vote
by Lilit Gevorgyan
The Armenian opposition's attempts to end the presidential Republican
Party's absolute majority in parliament was successful in legislative
elections on 6 May, which marked a significant improvement compared
with previous elections over the past 15 years.
Anyone But HK
Armenia's Central Electoral Commission has yet to publish the full
results of yesterday's (6 May) parliamentary elections, but from the
preliminary results, based on the counting of most of the ballots, it
appears that the presidential Republican Party (HK) has emerged in the
lead with 44.5% of the vote. It is likely that the HK will not have an
absolute majority and will not be able to form a single-party
government, so will have to form a coalition. This is the result of
the opposition parties' calls for voters to end the monopoly of power
of President Serzhe Sargsyan's HK by voting for different parties.
The runner-up in the elections was the HK's current junior coalition
member, the Prosperous Armenia Party (BHK), which gained 30.20% of the
vote. Led by a wealthy former sportsman, Gagik Tsarukyan, BHK was the
most talked-about party during the election, as it broke away from HK
and emerged a much stronger party.
The Armenian National Congress (HAK), an umbrella organisation uniting
18 opposition groups and parties led by Armenia's charismatic first
president Levon Ter-Petrosyan, barely crossed the 7% entry threshold
for political blocs by gaining only 7.10%. This is a disappointing
outcome given that HAK has been waging an uninterrupted campaign since
the beginning of 2011 following the outbreak of Arab Spring uprisings
in North Africa. Ter-Petrosyan has called for a velvet revolution, a
slow dismantlement of the monopoly of power.
However, Ter-Petrosyan, who was first elected in an open, transparent
vote at the time of the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, is also
associated with creating the current political and economic elite
which has proven very resistant to change, hence his and HAK's overall
unpopularity. The Heritage Party, led by Raffi Hovhanessian, more or
less maintained its votes compared with 2007 by securing 5.79%, while
the over 120-year-old Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) barely
passed the entry threshold with 5.49% of the total votes. The Country
of Laws Party with 5.49% has previously been pro-presidential and
could join the HK in a coalition. The voter turnout in the election
was 60% .
Important Achievements
Despite shortcomings there were significant achievements in the
parliamentary election. These perhaps were best summarised by Radmila
ekerinska, the head of the Election Observation Mission of the OSCE
Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, who was quoted by
media as saying: "The election campaign was open and respected
fundamental freedoms, and the media offered broad and balanced
coverage during the official campaign period." But she also added that
"unfortunately, this was overshadowed by concerns over the accuracy of
voter lists and violations of the Electoral Code that created an
unequal playing field."
Mainstream media especially has improved its coverage of the election
campaign. While social media has long been a key forum for democratic
campaigning, the recent election campaign showed that media including
the state-owned channels also rose to the occasion, as noted by the
OSCE. An unprecedented rise in the number of privately owned
television channels helped the various political parties to present
their positions. This growing freedom of the media is a significant
achievement and is likely to remain after the election.
However, the biggest winners were the civic activist groups. Armenia's
civil society is taking shape and, although it is relatively
underdeveloped, there are encouraging signs, as shown in environmental
campaigning throughout the past months, as well as during the election
campaign, that it will gain further strength. Their biggest challenge
will be to galvanise the significant portion of the population who
remain disillusioned with the whole political system, perceiving it as
corrupt and preoccupied with power-sharing rather than fighting for
the improvement of voters' living standards.
Outlook and Implications
These negative attitudes are not simply apolitical ones but are views
that are reinforced by the obvious shortcomings of the Armenian
nascent democracy. These problems came under the limelight once again
in the election. While there was an improvement in election
campaigning, the intimidation of voters and especially independent
candidates remained, as in the case of Satik Seyranyan, for example.
Both the HK and the BHK, the two main parties, are associated with
oligarchs that many see as the root cause of many of the problems of
Armenia's struggling economy. Hence many voters have no faith that
replacing one party in power with another will make any difference.
Vote rigging, expensive charitable projects during the election
campaign and outright vote buying remain serious issues that both the
HK and the BHK are alleged to be involved in.
In addition, most of the parties made unrealistic pledges rather than
offered well-thought-out reforms. The pressing issues of foreign
policy, such as the ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan over the status
of the Armenian-populated Nagorno Karabakh entity, as well as failed
attempts to normalise relations with Turkey, were also issues. In
addition, many candidates shunned the opportunities offered by the
media for political debate, in many cases simply because they appeared
to lack the skills and knowledge.
There should be no illusions that Armenia still has a long road to go
before its democratic institutions are strong enough to sustain
government change and challenge attempts at curtailing individual
freedoms. However, there is real hope that, although imperfect in its
current form, changes are taking place, not through revolution but
through compromise and peaceful political processes, and these are the
beginning of creating a strong democratic country.