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PA WILL UNDERPLAY CONGRESS
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments26134.html
Published: 10:55:50 - 10/05/2012
Will Serzh Sargsyan force the Prosperous Armenia Party to form a
coalition with the the Republicans? This is the key post-election
question.
A lot of experts think that RPA was able to play down the opposition
factor and aspiration of PA in the parliamentary election and will
further try to have PA form a coalition again and thus put an end to
the independent political biography of PA.
But does this require forming coalition of the RPA and PA? If PA has
been defeated so that the RPA can determine any format, the coalition
with PA will be ballast for PA.
Most probably Serzh Sargsyan knows this. Hence, forming coalition
would mean that PA is still an influential factor in government and
Serzh Sargsyan, despite having de jure absolute majority, nevertheless
de facto he has to take into account PA and offer to form a coalition
to neutralize further tension and resistance.
In this meaning, if RPA forms coalition with PA, even if it will
mean PA's defeat because during the campaign the party set such an
opposition bar that forming coalition would be strange, a coalition
government will mean that Serzh Sargsyan's victory was not absolute,
and he has to offer partnership to Gagik Tsarukyan or more exactly
Robert Kocharyan.
If the Republican Party has been able to beat PA, PA could be more
useful to Serzh Sargsyan as opposition rather than as a coalition
partner. In addition, it is not essential whether PA will be a
marionette or a real rival.
The point is that if PA is not dangerous for RPA, by leaving PA as
opposition Serzh Sargsyan can see to several issues. First, thus PA
will start to fight the other forces rather than RPA. PA will continue
to gain self-confidence in the opposition and in this sense it must
impose recognition of its long-term leadership over the other forces
representing the opposition.
At the same time, with that status of PA Serzh Sargsyan will continue
to underplay the so-called opposition "originality" of the Armenian
National Congress, and the Congress may remain in the same situation
as during the campaign, in the shade.
In the long run, by leaving PA in the opposition, Serzh Sargsyan will
encourage competition within the opposition, thus rendering the field
mostly controllable by the time of the presidential election.
There is little possibility that the opposition will unite
against rather than compete with the RPA, evidence to which is the
parliamentary election and the first post-election steps of these
subjects.
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments26134.html
Published: 10:55:50 - 10/05/2012
Will Serzh Sargsyan force the Prosperous Armenia Party to form a
coalition with the the Republicans? This is the key post-election
question.
A lot of experts think that RPA was able to play down the opposition
factor and aspiration of PA in the parliamentary election and will
further try to have PA form a coalition again and thus put an end to
the independent political biography of PA.
But does this require forming coalition of the RPA and PA? If PA has
been defeated so that the RPA can determine any format, the coalition
with PA will be ballast for PA.
Most probably Serzh Sargsyan knows this. Hence, forming coalition
would mean that PA is still an influential factor in government and
Serzh Sargsyan, despite having de jure absolute majority, nevertheless
de facto he has to take into account PA and offer to form a coalition
to neutralize further tension and resistance.
In this meaning, if RPA forms coalition with PA, even if it will
mean PA's defeat because during the campaign the party set such an
opposition bar that forming coalition would be strange, a coalition
government will mean that Serzh Sargsyan's victory was not absolute,
and he has to offer partnership to Gagik Tsarukyan or more exactly
Robert Kocharyan.
If the Republican Party has been able to beat PA, PA could be more
useful to Serzh Sargsyan as opposition rather than as a coalition
partner. In addition, it is not essential whether PA will be a
marionette or a real rival.
The point is that if PA is not dangerous for RPA, by leaving PA as
opposition Serzh Sargsyan can see to several issues. First, thus PA
will start to fight the other forces rather than RPA. PA will continue
to gain self-confidence in the opposition and in this sense it must
impose recognition of its long-term leadership over the other forces
representing the opposition.
At the same time, with that status of PA Serzh Sargsyan will continue
to underplay the so-called opposition "originality" of the Armenian
National Congress, and the Congress may remain in the same situation
as during the campaign, in the shade.
In the long run, by leaving PA in the opposition, Serzh Sargsyan will
encourage competition within the opposition, thus rendering the field
mostly controllable by the time of the presidential election.
There is little possibility that the opposition will unite
against rather than compete with the RPA, evidence to which is the
parliamentary election and the first post-election steps of these
subjects.