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NEW REALITIES COMING OUT OF THE BALLOT BOXES
Today's Zaman
May 9 2012
Turkey
Editorial by by Bulent Kenes
With the start of this week, we have seen major political developments
in the countries around us. For instance, in France, Nicolas Sarkozy,
known for his dislike of Turkey, lost the presidential elections
held over the weekend, and he was replaced with socialist Francois
Hollande. Having seen their worst era when Sarkozy was at the helm
of Paris, Turkish-French ties may make a new start with Hollande's
election.
Sarkozy had blocked five chapters in Turkey's EU membership
negotiations. Hollande's attitude towards Turkey's EU membership
has yet to be seen, and his attitude in this regard will serve as a
litmus test. On the other hand, the likelihood of Pierre Muscovici,
who is supportive of Turkey's EU membership, being appointed as
the new foreign minister is raising Ankara's hopes. However, the
possibility that Hollande may adopt sharper attitudes than Sarkozy
regarding the Armenian issue and, as the former leaders of his party
had done, with respect to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its
affiliations is creating serious concerns in Turkey. In particular,
the concerns that Turkish-French ties may yet see tensions further
heightened because of the Armenian issue as the 100th anniversary of
the 1915 incidents nears cannot be underestimated.
In Greece, which is suffering from the worst economic crisis in its
history, centre-right and left parties considerably lost support in
the parliamentary elections, as expected. The elections held over the
weekend failed to offer hope for a solution for the country, which is
again on the brink of total economic collapse. As no one is willing
to form the new government due to the current political scene, which
is further fragmented by the economic crisis, a new election in June
seems inevitable. Antonis Samaras, leader of the New Democracy (ND)
party, which secured the highest number of votes with 18.8 per cent,
failed to form the new government on Monday. The likelihood of the
country holding snap elections in June was reinforced. Yet, it is
obvious that re-holding elections will bring no solution. Indeed, if
the elections are held again, this will probably help to strengthen
the far right and far left. In the Greek parliamentary elections,
a neo-Nazi racist party - namely, Chrysi Avgi, or Golden Dawn - saw a
boom in its electoral support, and this is not the only indication of
a rising far right in Greece. The right-wing Independent Greeks (ANEL)
party, which has reacted to the trio that are effectively managing
the bankrupt Greek economy - the European Union, the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) - is also on
the rise. There is no need to explain why the rise of the far right
translates into losses for Greece, a country that is unable to pay
its debts, and Turkey, a country searching for peace and stability.
In the elections held in our close neighbour, Armenia, the
already-problematic status quo was largely preserved. In other words,
all of Turkey's problems concerning Armenia will continue without
change. The recent Armenian elections will be remembered for the
questions raised about their transparency and fairness. Suffering
from the paradox of "conscious voters and weak democracy" with its
politicized public, Armenia, like other ex-Soviet republics, continues
to suffer from a failure to fully internalize democracy.
On the other hand, in Serbia, one of the major actors of the crisis
in the Balkans, which was frozen by the cease-fire obtained with the
Dayton Agreement of 1995, Boris Tadic and Tomislav Nikolic were the
winners of the first round. These two strong candidates are entitled
to compete in the second round, slated for May 20. It is our biggest
hope that the results of this round will not harm the fragile stability
in the Balkans, especially in Bosnia and Hercegovina.
Of course, the political developments that concern Turkey are not
restricted to these countries. A sort of election was held in Syria,
where violence and oppression continue to rule as well. No one
has any hope that the r esults of the election from which dissident
groups and protesters were banned will lead to any improvement in the
anti-democratic nature of the Bashar al-Assad regime that counters
people's demands with violence. As a matter of fact, this is not the
first time the Syrian people have gone to the polls. The question
is whether the ballot boxes placed in front of some of the Syrian
people last weekend were really democratic. I don't think anyone,
including the United Nations, is convinced of the democratic quality
of any elections in Syria.
In this context, what happened to the party of German Chancellor Angela
Merkel, whose policies are of concern both to Turkey and Turks living
in Germany, deserves special mention. In the parliamentary elections
held in Germany's northern province of Schleswig-Holstein, Merkel's
Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) secured the highest number
of votes, but as its coalition partner, the Free Democratic Party
(FDP), suffered a big loss, the coalition government of the CDU and
FDP lost power in this state. Both the election defeat of Sarkozy,
who was known to act in perfect harmony in opposing Turkey's EU
membership, developing joint policies against the European debt crisis
and sharing the EU leadership, and the loss of a local government in
Schleswig-Holstein are serious blows to Merkel.
Our big northern neighbour, Russia, saw an important development on
Monday as Vladimir Putin, who won the presidential elections in late
2011, made a comeback to the Kremlin after a hiatus of four years
with an extremely sumptuous oath-taking ceremony. It is no secret
that Putin is more hawkish than his predecessor in his foreign policy
approaches. It is also clear that with the re-election of Putin to
president, Russia will adopt harsher stances in the face of the issues
involving Syria, Iran and the Caucasus, as well as on other problems
that relate to Turkey's because of its close vicinity. I think the
only advantage available to Turkey is the friendship between Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Putin, who are unfairly likened to
each other in the international media, as well as the recent tremendous
rapprochement between the two countries.
In sum, while all of the countries and nations that were mentioned
above stay where they are, their political preferences and developments
that appeared over the weekend, and earlier this week in nearby
countries, make it inevitable that Turkey will re-discuss the
positions of these countries in the framework of Turkey's regional
and international policies.
Today's Zaman
May 9 2012
Turkey
Editorial by by Bulent Kenes
With the start of this week, we have seen major political developments
in the countries around us. For instance, in France, Nicolas Sarkozy,
known for his dislike of Turkey, lost the presidential elections
held over the weekend, and he was replaced with socialist Francois
Hollande. Having seen their worst era when Sarkozy was at the helm
of Paris, Turkish-French ties may make a new start with Hollande's
election.
Sarkozy had blocked five chapters in Turkey's EU membership
negotiations. Hollande's attitude towards Turkey's EU membership
has yet to be seen, and his attitude in this regard will serve as a
litmus test. On the other hand, the likelihood of Pierre Muscovici,
who is supportive of Turkey's EU membership, being appointed as
the new foreign minister is raising Ankara's hopes. However, the
possibility that Hollande may adopt sharper attitudes than Sarkozy
regarding the Armenian issue and, as the former leaders of his party
had done, with respect to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its
affiliations is creating serious concerns in Turkey. In particular,
the concerns that Turkish-French ties may yet see tensions further
heightened because of the Armenian issue as the 100th anniversary of
the 1915 incidents nears cannot be underestimated.
In Greece, which is suffering from the worst economic crisis in its
history, centre-right and left parties considerably lost support in
the parliamentary elections, as expected. The elections held over the
weekend failed to offer hope for a solution for the country, which is
again on the brink of total economic collapse. As no one is willing
to form the new government due to the current political scene, which
is further fragmented by the economic crisis, a new election in June
seems inevitable. Antonis Samaras, leader of the New Democracy (ND)
party, which secured the highest number of votes with 18.8 per cent,
failed to form the new government on Monday. The likelihood of the
country holding snap elections in June was reinforced. Yet, it is
obvious that re-holding elections will bring no solution. Indeed, if
the elections are held again, this will probably help to strengthen
the far right and far left. In the Greek parliamentary elections,
a neo-Nazi racist party - namely, Chrysi Avgi, or Golden Dawn - saw a
boom in its electoral support, and this is not the only indication of
a rising far right in Greece. The right-wing Independent Greeks (ANEL)
party, which has reacted to the trio that are effectively managing
the bankrupt Greek economy - the European Union, the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) - is also on
the rise. There is no need to explain why the rise of the far right
translates into losses for Greece, a country that is unable to pay
its debts, and Turkey, a country searching for peace and stability.
In the elections held in our close neighbour, Armenia, the
already-problematic status quo was largely preserved. In other words,
all of Turkey's problems concerning Armenia will continue without
change. The recent Armenian elections will be remembered for the
questions raised about their transparency and fairness. Suffering
from the paradox of "conscious voters and weak democracy" with its
politicized public, Armenia, like other ex-Soviet republics, continues
to suffer from a failure to fully internalize democracy.
On the other hand, in Serbia, one of the major actors of the crisis
in the Balkans, which was frozen by the cease-fire obtained with the
Dayton Agreement of 1995, Boris Tadic and Tomislav Nikolic were the
winners of the first round. These two strong candidates are entitled
to compete in the second round, slated for May 20. It is our biggest
hope that the results of this round will not harm the fragile stability
in the Balkans, especially in Bosnia and Hercegovina.
Of course, the political developments that concern Turkey are not
restricted to these countries. A sort of election was held in Syria,
where violence and oppression continue to rule as well. No one
has any hope that the r esults of the election from which dissident
groups and protesters were banned will lead to any improvement in the
anti-democratic nature of the Bashar al-Assad regime that counters
people's demands with violence. As a matter of fact, this is not the
first time the Syrian people have gone to the polls. The question
is whether the ballot boxes placed in front of some of the Syrian
people last weekend were really democratic. I don't think anyone,
including the United Nations, is convinced of the democratic quality
of any elections in Syria.
In this context, what happened to the party of German Chancellor Angela
Merkel, whose policies are of concern both to Turkey and Turks living
in Germany, deserves special mention. In the parliamentary elections
held in Germany's northern province of Schleswig-Holstein, Merkel's
Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) secured the highest number
of votes, but as its coalition partner, the Free Democratic Party
(FDP), suffered a big loss, the coalition government of the CDU and
FDP lost power in this state. Both the election defeat of Sarkozy,
who was known to act in perfect harmony in opposing Turkey's EU
membership, developing joint policies against the European debt crisis
and sharing the EU leadership, and the loss of a local government in
Schleswig-Holstein are serious blows to Merkel.
Our big northern neighbour, Russia, saw an important development on
Monday as Vladimir Putin, who won the presidential elections in late
2011, made a comeback to the Kremlin after a hiatus of four years
with an extremely sumptuous oath-taking ceremony. It is no secret
that Putin is more hawkish than his predecessor in his foreign policy
approaches. It is also clear that with the re-election of Putin to
president, Russia will adopt harsher stances in the face of the issues
involving Syria, Iran and the Caucasus, as well as on other problems
that relate to Turkey's because of its close vicinity. I think the
only advantage available to Turkey is the friendship between Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Putin, who are unfairly likened to
each other in the international media, as well as the recent tremendous
rapprochement between the two countries.
In sum, while all of the countries and nations that were mentioned
above stay where they are, their political preferences and developments
that appeared over the weekend, and earlier this week in nearby
countries, make it inevitable that Turkey will re-discuss the
positions of these countries in the framework of Turkey's regional
and international policies.