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FRANCE'S DIFFICULT CHOICE
by MARKAR ESAYAN
Today's Zaman
May 9 2012
Turkey
At the beginning of an article published in the Guardian in which
he assessed the French presidential elections, Pierre Haski quoted
a statement that Francois Hollande made just a few days before the
first round of elections. Since this is the same thought that occurred
to me after hearing that Hollande won the elections, I wanted to
start with the same quotation. Hollande referred to Leon Blum, who
served as France's socialist prime minister in 1936, and who said,
"Now the problems start," and this quotation is a realistic depiction
of the situation in France.
When I flew to France several months ago, I observed the same despair
in my relatives and friends who were surrounded by opponents of
Sarkozy. Yes, they were saying, Sarkozy should go. They would vote for
Hollande, but they weren't investing much hope in him either. Those
who argued that Hollande deserves a chance suggested that, referring
to Mitterrand and Chirac, the time of charismatic leaders had passed
and Europe was tired of charisma.
How Chirac had competed against the only contender, Jean Marie Le
Pen, in the 2001 elections was still fresh in the memory. Moreover,
his daughter Marine Le Pen had boosted their racist party's
votes considerably in the current elections, and, what's worse,
public opinion polls indicated that 37 percent of French voters
felt themselves closer to Le Pen's racist ideas. All this further
added to the despair in the country. Indeed, it was very likely that,
pursuing the right tactic, Marine Le Pen would just sit and watch how
the socialists and the center right would destroy each other before
she could conveniently replace the collapsing center.
As a matter of fact, I, too, find this risk very likely. This is
the second time a socialist leader has been elected president since
the adoption of the constitution of 1958 -- i.e., the establishment
of the Second Republic -- and it seems that this development has
refreshed hopes for many. As a side note, I should say Sarkozy proved
an exception to the rule of right-wing leaders winning elections
consecutively. Even if Hollande chooses to soften the financial
austerity plans, this alone will mean a big promise in the current
climate in Europe. To his chagrin, people have high expectations from
him, and there is little time left before the nearing parliamentary
elections. So any failure will imply that it will fall from a higher
location and hit the ground more destructively. The state of public
finance is most critical in the case of France. Hollande has little
time to opt out of the austerity policies purported by German
Chancellor Angela Merkel and Sarkozy, which are aiming to boost
demands and exports rather than spend less. And with this further
increase comes the possibility that Marine Le Pen will be the winner in
2017. In other words, this hard victory of the Socialists may result
in the far right occupying the center. And if this happens, those who
are happy with Sarkozy's defeat may start to feel very sorry for him.
The real problem is that Europeans are unable to come to grips
with the fact that the era of welfare -- the result of transferring
revenues obtained via post-World War II liberalization and colonialist
plundering to the people of the continent through social policies --
has ended. In other words, Europeans must learn to lead more modest
and less wealthy lives. Europe's share in international trade is 20
percent, which is continually being carved away by the BRIC countries
and the emerging Second World countries. From this perspective, the
policy the Merkozy duo adopted irrespective of economic methods is
more reasonable. It is not only France or Greece but all European
countries that must get accustomed to cutting their coats according
their clothes.
Apart from these, we can assume that Hollande is not pro-Atlantic
like Sarkozy and Merkel and, in foreign policy, he will not be as
pro-American and interventionist as Sarkozy. This may considerably
affect the Western pact in the Middle Eastern crises, such as
the ongoing Syrian crisis, and the resulting gap may offer both
opportunities and an additional burden on Turkey. I must note that
there will be no change in France's stance regarding the Armenian
issue as the genocide and denial bills were originally drafted by
the socialists.
Still, it is clear that with Hollande at the helm of France, Turkey
will not be blocked, as was the case under Sarkozy. Now, France will
not voice nonsensical demands such as "establish a Mediterranean Union
or stay as Cappadocians," but will make more concrete and meaningful
demands. Thus, Turkey will no longer see Sarkozy standing in its way
towards European Union membership, and this may be an opportunity
for Turkey. However, at the same time, it may pose problems to the
ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) if it continues to
remain indifferent to the membership process.
We will wait and see.
by MARKAR ESAYAN
Today's Zaman
May 9 2012
Turkey
At the beginning of an article published in the Guardian in which
he assessed the French presidential elections, Pierre Haski quoted
a statement that Francois Hollande made just a few days before the
first round of elections. Since this is the same thought that occurred
to me after hearing that Hollande won the elections, I wanted to
start with the same quotation. Hollande referred to Leon Blum, who
served as France's socialist prime minister in 1936, and who said,
"Now the problems start," and this quotation is a realistic depiction
of the situation in France.
When I flew to France several months ago, I observed the same despair
in my relatives and friends who were surrounded by opponents of
Sarkozy. Yes, they were saying, Sarkozy should go. They would vote for
Hollande, but they weren't investing much hope in him either. Those
who argued that Hollande deserves a chance suggested that, referring
to Mitterrand and Chirac, the time of charismatic leaders had passed
and Europe was tired of charisma.
How Chirac had competed against the only contender, Jean Marie Le
Pen, in the 2001 elections was still fresh in the memory. Moreover,
his daughter Marine Le Pen had boosted their racist party's
votes considerably in the current elections, and, what's worse,
public opinion polls indicated that 37 percent of French voters
felt themselves closer to Le Pen's racist ideas. All this further
added to the despair in the country. Indeed, it was very likely that,
pursuing the right tactic, Marine Le Pen would just sit and watch how
the socialists and the center right would destroy each other before
she could conveniently replace the collapsing center.
As a matter of fact, I, too, find this risk very likely. This is
the second time a socialist leader has been elected president since
the adoption of the constitution of 1958 -- i.e., the establishment
of the Second Republic -- and it seems that this development has
refreshed hopes for many. As a side note, I should say Sarkozy proved
an exception to the rule of right-wing leaders winning elections
consecutively. Even if Hollande chooses to soften the financial
austerity plans, this alone will mean a big promise in the current
climate in Europe. To his chagrin, people have high expectations from
him, and there is little time left before the nearing parliamentary
elections. So any failure will imply that it will fall from a higher
location and hit the ground more destructively. The state of public
finance is most critical in the case of France. Hollande has little
time to opt out of the austerity policies purported by German
Chancellor Angela Merkel and Sarkozy, which are aiming to boost
demands and exports rather than spend less. And with this further
increase comes the possibility that Marine Le Pen will be the winner in
2017. In other words, this hard victory of the Socialists may result
in the far right occupying the center. And if this happens, those who
are happy with Sarkozy's defeat may start to feel very sorry for him.
The real problem is that Europeans are unable to come to grips
with the fact that the era of welfare -- the result of transferring
revenues obtained via post-World War II liberalization and colonialist
plundering to the people of the continent through social policies --
has ended. In other words, Europeans must learn to lead more modest
and less wealthy lives. Europe's share in international trade is 20
percent, which is continually being carved away by the BRIC countries
and the emerging Second World countries. From this perspective, the
policy the Merkozy duo adopted irrespective of economic methods is
more reasonable. It is not only France or Greece but all European
countries that must get accustomed to cutting their coats according
their clothes.
Apart from these, we can assume that Hollande is not pro-Atlantic
like Sarkozy and Merkel and, in foreign policy, he will not be as
pro-American and interventionist as Sarkozy. This may considerably
affect the Western pact in the Middle Eastern crises, such as
the ongoing Syrian crisis, and the resulting gap may offer both
opportunities and an additional burden on Turkey. I must note that
there will be no change in France's stance regarding the Armenian
issue as the genocide and denial bills were originally drafted by
the socialists.
Still, it is clear that with Hollande at the helm of France, Turkey
will not be blocked, as was the case under Sarkozy. Now, France will
not voice nonsensical demands such as "establish a Mediterranean Union
or stay as Cappadocians," but will make more concrete and meaningful
demands. Thus, Turkey will no longer see Sarkozy standing in its way
towards European Union membership, and this may be an opportunity
for Turkey. However, at the same time, it may pose problems to the
ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) if it continues to
remain indifferent to the membership process.
We will wait and see.