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ANALYSTS: FRENCH ELECTION COULD BOOST TURKEY'S EU BID
Journal of Turkish Weekly
May 10 2012
With Sarkozy gone, Turkey-France relations have a chance to improve.
With the victory of socialist Francois Hollande over incumbent Nicolas
Sarkozy in Sunday's presidential elections, there are expectations
that a new page could open in Turkey's troubled relationship with
the France -- and hence the EU.
Under Hollande, who staked his election bid on an anti-austerity
platform, analysts expect France to adopt a friendlier stance towards
Turkey, as the new president struggles with the urgency of the eurozone
crisis and domestic reforms.
Commenting on the election results during an official visit to the
Slovenian capital, Ljubljana, on Monday (May 7th), Turkey's Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan aknowledged that dialogue with the
Socialists would be easier because they have traditionally supported
Turkey's EU bid.
"Following the election of Francois Hollande, the Turkish government
now hopes that relations between Paris and Ankara can be more
constructive and that talks on Turkey's rapprochement with the EU
will progress," the prime minister was quoted as saying by Slovenian
news agency STA.
Relations between Ankara and Paris deteriorated sharply during
Sarkozy's presidency as his anti-Turkey populism was often perceived as
anti-Muslim in Turkey. When a Sarkozy-backed draft Armenian genocide
bill was passed earlier this year by the lower and upper houses of
the French Parliament, relations hit new lows.
The draft bill, which many in Ankara considered as pre-election
posturing to attract the Armenia diaspora vote, was ultimately ruled
unconstitutional, but the episode caused severe damage to bilateral
relations.
Hollande has promised to repair ties with Turkey. The Socialist's
promise to lift France's 2007 veto over five blocked EU chapters
that could bring Turkey closer to the EU is likely to win them fans
in Ankara.
But as Didier Billion, a Turkey expert from the Paris-based Institute
of International and Strategic Relations, notes, Hollande has close
links with the Armenian political party Dashnaktsutyun.
"Francois Hollande intends to make the genocide bill constitutional,
and this is not pre-election posturing, but rather a position of
principle," Billion told SES Turkiye.
As a result, Billion says that as long as the genocide bill issue is
on the agenda, relations would remain tense, despite the more open
policy towards Turkey's EU accession.
Cengiz Aktar, an EU expert from Istanbul's Bahcesehir University,
says the socialists should reformulate French policy concerning the
genocide issue, especially since Dashnaktsutyun doesn't represent
all Armenians living in France.
When formulating French policy on the genocide issue, the socialists
should "consider all possible political and economic repercussions,"
he warns.
As Europe struggles to contain the eurozone crisis and create growth,
economics and trade interests may ultimately trump the genocide issue,
while a French government supportive of Turkey's EU bid could help
to smooth over past differences.
"Economic relations between the two countries generate jobs in France.
As a rapidly growing G20 economy, Turkey has a significant trade
deficit vis-a-vis France and French companies operating in Turkey
have always been profitable, even in times of global crisis," Bahadir
Kaleagasi, the international co-ordinator and European representative
of the Turkish Industry and Business Association (TUSIAD), told
SES Turkiye.
Kaleagasi also says that deeper co-operation between Paris and Ankara
could "reactivate the EU's transformational power on Turkey" in the
field of democratic reforms. "Therefore, a new era of win-win-win is
possible for France, Turkey and the EU," he said.
For Ozdem Sanberk, a veteran Turkish diplomat, Turkey needs to work
wıth France on establishing a common vision for Europe -- something
which he says is currently lacking -- rather than limiting relations
to narrow issues at the bilateral level.
"Such a convergent strategic vision will create a broad area of
interests for the both countries to interact, and as long as this space
does not narrow, any challenges concerning the Armenian issue will
take only a limited and small space within it," he told SES Turkiye.
"As long as these two countries opt for a global vision for their
relations, this subject will not have any great capability to shape
and determine the path of the relations," he concluded.
Thursday, 10 May 2012
Setimes Turkiye
Journal of Turkish Weekly
May 10 2012
With Sarkozy gone, Turkey-France relations have a chance to improve.
With the victory of socialist Francois Hollande over incumbent Nicolas
Sarkozy in Sunday's presidential elections, there are expectations
that a new page could open in Turkey's troubled relationship with
the France -- and hence the EU.
Under Hollande, who staked his election bid on an anti-austerity
platform, analysts expect France to adopt a friendlier stance towards
Turkey, as the new president struggles with the urgency of the eurozone
crisis and domestic reforms.
Commenting on the election results during an official visit to the
Slovenian capital, Ljubljana, on Monday (May 7th), Turkey's Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan aknowledged that dialogue with the
Socialists would be easier because they have traditionally supported
Turkey's EU bid.
"Following the election of Francois Hollande, the Turkish government
now hopes that relations between Paris and Ankara can be more
constructive and that talks on Turkey's rapprochement with the EU
will progress," the prime minister was quoted as saying by Slovenian
news agency STA.
Relations between Ankara and Paris deteriorated sharply during
Sarkozy's presidency as his anti-Turkey populism was often perceived as
anti-Muslim in Turkey. When a Sarkozy-backed draft Armenian genocide
bill was passed earlier this year by the lower and upper houses of
the French Parliament, relations hit new lows.
The draft bill, which many in Ankara considered as pre-election
posturing to attract the Armenia diaspora vote, was ultimately ruled
unconstitutional, but the episode caused severe damage to bilateral
relations.
Hollande has promised to repair ties with Turkey. The Socialist's
promise to lift France's 2007 veto over five blocked EU chapters
that could bring Turkey closer to the EU is likely to win them fans
in Ankara.
But as Didier Billion, a Turkey expert from the Paris-based Institute
of International and Strategic Relations, notes, Hollande has close
links with the Armenian political party Dashnaktsutyun.
"Francois Hollande intends to make the genocide bill constitutional,
and this is not pre-election posturing, but rather a position of
principle," Billion told SES Turkiye.
As a result, Billion says that as long as the genocide bill issue is
on the agenda, relations would remain tense, despite the more open
policy towards Turkey's EU accession.
Cengiz Aktar, an EU expert from Istanbul's Bahcesehir University,
says the socialists should reformulate French policy concerning the
genocide issue, especially since Dashnaktsutyun doesn't represent
all Armenians living in France.
When formulating French policy on the genocide issue, the socialists
should "consider all possible political and economic repercussions,"
he warns.
As Europe struggles to contain the eurozone crisis and create growth,
economics and trade interests may ultimately trump the genocide issue,
while a French government supportive of Turkey's EU bid could help
to smooth over past differences.
"Economic relations between the two countries generate jobs in France.
As a rapidly growing G20 economy, Turkey has a significant trade
deficit vis-a-vis France and French companies operating in Turkey
have always been profitable, even in times of global crisis," Bahadir
Kaleagasi, the international co-ordinator and European representative
of the Turkish Industry and Business Association (TUSIAD), told
SES Turkiye.
Kaleagasi also says that deeper co-operation between Paris and Ankara
could "reactivate the EU's transformational power on Turkey" in the
field of democratic reforms. "Therefore, a new era of win-win-win is
possible for France, Turkey and the EU," he said.
For Ozdem Sanberk, a veteran Turkish diplomat, Turkey needs to work
wıth France on establishing a common vision for Europe -- something
which he says is currently lacking -- rather than limiting relations
to narrow issues at the bilateral level.
"Such a convergent strategic vision will create a broad area of
interests for the both countries to interact, and as long as this space
does not narrow, any challenges concerning the Armenian issue will
take only a limited and small space within it," he told SES Turkiye.
"As long as these two countries opt for a global vision for their
relations, this subject will not have any great capability to shape
and determine the path of the relations," he concluded.
Thursday, 10 May 2012
Setimes Turkiye