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Armenia's Election: One Step Forward or Ten Jumps Backwards?
Armen Arakelyan
HETQ
16:54, May 7, 2012
May 7, the day after the parliamentary election, dawned as a regular
working Monday.
You'd think that the country hadn't gone to the polls the day before.
People were going about their daily grind as if the elections results
of the day before had no connection with them or their future lives.
An overall atmosphere of indifference, or better yet, apathy, hung
over the country. This `ennui' in no way corresponded to the promises
of change made by the ruling regime; promises that allegedly spurred
62% of the electorate to cast ballots. The fact that the ruling regime
scored a decisive win, if we are to believe the official count, makes
this atmosphere of apathy even more perplexing.
We can point to two main reasons for this post-election indifference.
The first is that the people do not view the parliament as a body
capable of effecting real change. Second, the results declared by the
Central Electoral Commission, for the most part, held no real
surprises. It was more a question of what margin of victory would the
ruling Republican Party garner, and not one of who would win. A
secondary point of intrigue was if the Country of Law and Heritage
parties would even surpass the 5% threshold and get seats in the new
legislature.
According to the final election results, the new parliament will be
comprised of two categories of political parties. On the one hand we
have the Republican and Prosperous Armenia parties (the senior and
junior coalition forces) who between them won 74% of the overall vote.
Then, straggling behind, are the others who just made the grade - HAK
(Armenian National Congress), Heritage, ARF and Country of Law.
As to what the operational arrangement of these forces will be in the
new parliament remains to be seen.
Primarily, will the Republican Party, specifically President Sargsyan,
be content to run things solely on the overall majority it will enjoy,
or will it propose some working `coalition' with the other parties and
forces?
Here, Prosperous Armenia faces a real dilemma. Will it meekly swallow
its second place showing or transform itself into a true parliamentary
opposition.
If it chooses the second path, a sizeable opposition bloc will take
shape, given that the ARF, HAK and Heritage will surely come on board.
We cannot rule out other configurations. For example, the Republican
Party might see fit to attempt a coalition with the ARF, Country of
Law and Heritage against Prosperous Armenia, its main contender. Such
a scenario is highly unlikely and any such coalition would be in name
only.
Until the dust settles, of greater importance is to understand what
transpired to secure such a decisive plurality of votes for the ruling
Republican Party. Even the Gallup surveys pointed to no such numbers.
On the other hand, the votes won by the others were even less than the
exit polls were pointing to.
Alley-oop
This picture is essentially shaped by three most important factors.
The first, naturally, were the bribes handed out that exceeded all
expectations in scope.
Bribes were handed out all over the place and out in the open. Despite
this, law enforcement only recorded two cases of bribery.
There are two main reasons for handing out bribes. On the one hand
it's a bet that the one who takes the bribe will at least vote not in
support of the Republican Party but for that person and thus escape
the wrath of the party if he loses.
At work is the principle of not `betraying' or `cheating' one's
neighbour or friend, a very important social-psychological factor in
the clan mentality of our society.
The second reason is that those who take bribes, whether or not they
vote in favour of the party doling out the bribes or not, will never
come out in defense of their ballot, to protest, or to link up with
the opposition, because by doing so they would immediately betray
their real preference and would wind up in a very inconvenient
situation.
In other words, doling out election bribes is a fantastic tool to
control and quash public discontent. Its uniqueness lies in the fact
that not one international election observer never sees it and cannot
register it as an election infraction. This is exactly what the
authorities need.
The main sleight of hand that the Republican Party used in its victory
was the voter rolls themselves. They were never seriously looked at by
citizens at large or the united party headquarters set up to prevent
electoral fraud.
This is proven by alleged 63% voter turnout despite the unprecedented
but widespread apathy of the people and the mistrust expressed
regarding the government by the Gallup surveys.
Then too, there were the strangely high numbers at the polls on Sunday
morning, from 8 to 11. This curiously coincided with the missing ink
stamps issued to citizens who had already cast a ballot.
But the real problem with the voter rolls was the disparity between
the actual numbers of Yerevan residents and those simply registered.
This was never adequately examined and it would take a detailed house
to house search lasting more than one or two weeks.
This is a process demanding social mobilization and civil fortitude.
But we see the exact opposite - the public, or vast segments of it,
are in cahoots with the violators. The people know who the bribe
givers are. Not only do they not speak up but in fact they actively
participate in the illegal operation that merely weakens the state
even further.
If the public at large is an active participant in all this then, it
goes without saying, that measures to the contrary are doomed to
failure.
Put another way, the biggest election fraudster/swindler, willingly or
unwillingly, turned out to be a majority of the rank and file
citizenry; those who agreed to register others at their apartments and
those who were registered.
If the political forces are serious about cleaning up this mess for
the 2013 presidential elections they had better start working as of
today.
In conclusion, these elections were no step forward from the previous
ones. It's just that crude measures have been replaced with more
sophisticated means to cajole, convince, manipulate and pressure.
It's no big deal that the optimism of the international observers
isn't shared by the public. Their words do not instill joy, confidence
ort hope in the hearts of the common man or woman.
They still had to get up on May 7 and face yet another morose Monday work day.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Armen Arakelyan
HETQ
16:54, May 7, 2012
May 7, the day after the parliamentary election, dawned as a regular
working Monday.
You'd think that the country hadn't gone to the polls the day before.
People were going about their daily grind as if the elections results
of the day before had no connection with them or their future lives.
An overall atmosphere of indifference, or better yet, apathy, hung
over the country. This `ennui' in no way corresponded to the promises
of change made by the ruling regime; promises that allegedly spurred
62% of the electorate to cast ballots. The fact that the ruling regime
scored a decisive win, if we are to believe the official count, makes
this atmosphere of apathy even more perplexing.
We can point to two main reasons for this post-election indifference.
The first is that the people do not view the parliament as a body
capable of effecting real change. Second, the results declared by the
Central Electoral Commission, for the most part, held no real
surprises. It was more a question of what margin of victory would the
ruling Republican Party garner, and not one of who would win. A
secondary point of intrigue was if the Country of Law and Heritage
parties would even surpass the 5% threshold and get seats in the new
legislature.
According to the final election results, the new parliament will be
comprised of two categories of political parties. On the one hand we
have the Republican and Prosperous Armenia parties (the senior and
junior coalition forces) who between them won 74% of the overall vote.
Then, straggling behind, are the others who just made the grade - HAK
(Armenian National Congress), Heritage, ARF and Country of Law.
As to what the operational arrangement of these forces will be in the
new parliament remains to be seen.
Primarily, will the Republican Party, specifically President Sargsyan,
be content to run things solely on the overall majority it will enjoy,
or will it propose some working `coalition' with the other parties and
forces?
Here, Prosperous Armenia faces a real dilemma. Will it meekly swallow
its second place showing or transform itself into a true parliamentary
opposition.
If it chooses the second path, a sizeable opposition bloc will take
shape, given that the ARF, HAK and Heritage will surely come on board.
We cannot rule out other configurations. For example, the Republican
Party might see fit to attempt a coalition with the ARF, Country of
Law and Heritage against Prosperous Armenia, its main contender. Such
a scenario is highly unlikely and any such coalition would be in name
only.
Until the dust settles, of greater importance is to understand what
transpired to secure such a decisive plurality of votes for the ruling
Republican Party. Even the Gallup surveys pointed to no such numbers.
On the other hand, the votes won by the others were even less than the
exit polls were pointing to.
Alley-oop
This picture is essentially shaped by three most important factors.
The first, naturally, were the bribes handed out that exceeded all
expectations in scope.
Bribes were handed out all over the place and out in the open. Despite
this, law enforcement only recorded two cases of bribery.
There are two main reasons for handing out bribes. On the one hand
it's a bet that the one who takes the bribe will at least vote not in
support of the Republican Party but for that person and thus escape
the wrath of the party if he loses.
At work is the principle of not `betraying' or `cheating' one's
neighbour or friend, a very important social-psychological factor in
the clan mentality of our society.
The second reason is that those who take bribes, whether or not they
vote in favour of the party doling out the bribes or not, will never
come out in defense of their ballot, to protest, or to link up with
the opposition, because by doing so they would immediately betray
their real preference and would wind up in a very inconvenient
situation.
In other words, doling out election bribes is a fantastic tool to
control and quash public discontent. Its uniqueness lies in the fact
that not one international election observer never sees it and cannot
register it as an election infraction. This is exactly what the
authorities need.
The main sleight of hand that the Republican Party used in its victory
was the voter rolls themselves. They were never seriously looked at by
citizens at large or the united party headquarters set up to prevent
electoral fraud.
This is proven by alleged 63% voter turnout despite the unprecedented
but widespread apathy of the people and the mistrust expressed
regarding the government by the Gallup surveys.
Then too, there were the strangely high numbers at the polls on Sunday
morning, from 8 to 11. This curiously coincided with the missing ink
stamps issued to citizens who had already cast a ballot.
But the real problem with the voter rolls was the disparity between
the actual numbers of Yerevan residents and those simply registered.
This was never adequately examined and it would take a detailed house
to house search lasting more than one or two weeks.
This is a process demanding social mobilization and civil fortitude.
But we see the exact opposite - the public, or vast segments of it,
are in cahoots with the violators. The people know who the bribe
givers are. Not only do they not speak up but in fact they actively
participate in the illegal operation that merely weakens the state
even further.
If the public at large is an active participant in all this then, it
goes without saying, that measures to the contrary are doomed to
failure.
Put another way, the biggest election fraudster/swindler, willingly or
unwillingly, turned out to be a majority of the rank and file
citizenry; those who agreed to register others at their apartments and
those who were registered.
If the political forces are serious about cleaning up this mess for
the 2013 presidential elections they had better start working as of
today.
In conclusion, these elections were no step forward from the previous
ones. It's just that crude measures have been replaced with more
sophisticated means to cajole, convince, manipulate and pressure.
It's no big deal that the optimism of the international observers
isn't shared by the public. Their words do not instill joy, confidence
ort hope in the hearts of the common man or woman.
They still had to get up on May 7 and face yet another morose Monday work day.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress