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Today's Zaman, Turkey
May 13 2012
Armenian elections unlikely to smooth relations with Azerbaijan
13 May 2012 / LAMİYA ADİLGIZI, İSTANBUL
Last week's parliamentary elections in Armenia that ended with the
victory of President Serzh Sarksyan's party are unlikely to have a
positive impact on the country's relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey,
politicians and analysts agree.
Müsavat head İsa Gambar, the leader of the opposition and
second-largest party in Azerbaijan, did not have a positive view of
the relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia when he spoke with
Sunday's Zaman. `The [Armenian] regime, which sabotaged the elections,
is not preparing to change its policy regarding its neighboring
countries, including Azerbaijan, as it will not even allow the people
to change the party in power. That is why the [the results of the]
latest parliamentary elections will not change anything in the foreign
policy of Armenia,' said Gambar, adding that it is unfortunate that a
corrupt, authoritarian regime is running Armenia, a situation seen in
the majority of post-Soviet countries that leads to rigged elections.
The parliamentary elections held in Armenia last Sunday resulted in
the victory of President Serzh Sarksyan's Republican Party, which won
44 percent of the vote and 68 seats, a majority in the 131-seat
parliament. The results were not much of a surprise, with charges of
fraud and vote-rigging circulating amongst observers. Although this
year's elections were thought to be much more progressive than those
in 2008, which were followed by bloody demonstrations in the capital
of Yerevan that resulted in the deaths of eight protesters by Armenian
security forces, observers were mainly concerned about the pressures
on voters and lack of confidence in the elections process in Armenia.
Reiterating that the results of the Armenian elections will not affect
relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Gambar said the Sarksyan
regime has used the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which has been stuck in
a deadlock for more than two decades, to maintain his authority. He
added, `The Sarksyan regime does not intend to make any positive
changes in relations with Azerbaijan.' Nagorno-Karabakh, an
Azerbaijani territory, has been under Armenian control since a 1994
cease-fire in a war that began in the late 1980s and resulted in the
deaths of some 30,000 people. Although the Organization for Security
and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group was established in 1992
to negotiate the peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
the territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has yet to be
settled.
Echoing Gambar, Sabine Freizer, the İstanbul-based director of the
International Crisis Group's Europe Program, told Sunday's Zaman that
the May 6 parliamentary elections in Armenia and the victory of
President Sarksyan's Republican Party are unlikely to have any effect
on Armenian-Azerbaijani or Armenian-Turkish relations. `President
Sarksyan is unlikely to take any risky steps before the 2013
presidential elections,' she said, adding, `With the 2015 centennial
approaching, the Armenian side most likely feels that it's in its best
interest to focus on international genocide recognition and
commemoration rather than working with Turkey to revive the 2009
protocols, especially as it sees no movement in Ankara regarding the
protocols.'
A historic reconciliation process was launched between Turkey and
Armenia in 2009 when the two sides signed twin protocols, but these
were not well-received in Azerbaijan. These protocols, signed in
Zurich to establish diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia,
shook Turkish-Azerbaijani friendship. What angered Azerbaijan the most
was the opening of the border between the two countries. Turkey has
kept its border with Armenia closed since 1993, following the Armenian
occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent Azerbaijani
territories, in order to support strategic ally Azerbaijan. However,
the ratification of the protocols was put on hold after Turkey
insisted Armenia must first agree to a solution to the long-standing
Nagorno-Karabakh issue as a precondition for normalization. The issue
of Armenia's withdrawal from the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven
adjacent territories is important to Ankara, which has frequently
signaled that this step would pave the way for the opening of its
border with Armenia. Richard Giragosian, director of the Yerevan-based
Regional Studies Center, also thinks the results of the Armenian
elections will have little impact on the country's relations with
Azerbajian or the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. `The landslide victory of
the ruling Republican Party will induce a degree of confidence and
will only bolster the position and political standing of the Armenian
president, especially as he is seeking re-election in the country's
looming presidential contest set for February 2012,' Giragosian told
Sunday's Zaman. He added that `we should expect a more assertive and
stronger pursuit of Armenian foreign policy. In terms of Azerbaijan,
this most likely suggests a deepening of the current status quo.'
May 13 2012
Armenian elections unlikely to smooth relations with Azerbaijan
13 May 2012 / LAMİYA ADİLGIZI, İSTANBUL
Last week's parliamentary elections in Armenia that ended with the
victory of President Serzh Sarksyan's party are unlikely to have a
positive impact on the country's relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey,
politicians and analysts agree.
Müsavat head İsa Gambar, the leader of the opposition and
second-largest party in Azerbaijan, did not have a positive view of
the relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia when he spoke with
Sunday's Zaman. `The [Armenian] regime, which sabotaged the elections,
is not preparing to change its policy regarding its neighboring
countries, including Azerbaijan, as it will not even allow the people
to change the party in power. That is why the [the results of the]
latest parliamentary elections will not change anything in the foreign
policy of Armenia,' said Gambar, adding that it is unfortunate that a
corrupt, authoritarian regime is running Armenia, a situation seen in
the majority of post-Soviet countries that leads to rigged elections.
The parliamentary elections held in Armenia last Sunday resulted in
the victory of President Serzh Sarksyan's Republican Party, which won
44 percent of the vote and 68 seats, a majority in the 131-seat
parliament. The results were not much of a surprise, with charges of
fraud and vote-rigging circulating amongst observers. Although this
year's elections were thought to be much more progressive than those
in 2008, which were followed by bloody demonstrations in the capital
of Yerevan that resulted in the deaths of eight protesters by Armenian
security forces, observers were mainly concerned about the pressures
on voters and lack of confidence in the elections process in Armenia.
Reiterating that the results of the Armenian elections will not affect
relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Gambar said the Sarksyan
regime has used the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which has been stuck in
a deadlock for more than two decades, to maintain his authority. He
added, `The Sarksyan regime does not intend to make any positive
changes in relations with Azerbaijan.' Nagorno-Karabakh, an
Azerbaijani territory, has been under Armenian control since a 1994
cease-fire in a war that began in the late 1980s and resulted in the
deaths of some 30,000 people. Although the Organization for Security
and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group was established in 1992
to negotiate the peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
the territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has yet to be
settled.
Echoing Gambar, Sabine Freizer, the İstanbul-based director of the
International Crisis Group's Europe Program, told Sunday's Zaman that
the May 6 parliamentary elections in Armenia and the victory of
President Sarksyan's Republican Party are unlikely to have any effect
on Armenian-Azerbaijani or Armenian-Turkish relations. `President
Sarksyan is unlikely to take any risky steps before the 2013
presidential elections,' she said, adding, `With the 2015 centennial
approaching, the Armenian side most likely feels that it's in its best
interest to focus on international genocide recognition and
commemoration rather than working with Turkey to revive the 2009
protocols, especially as it sees no movement in Ankara regarding the
protocols.'
A historic reconciliation process was launched between Turkey and
Armenia in 2009 when the two sides signed twin protocols, but these
were not well-received in Azerbaijan. These protocols, signed in
Zurich to establish diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia,
shook Turkish-Azerbaijani friendship. What angered Azerbaijan the most
was the opening of the border between the two countries. Turkey has
kept its border with Armenia closed since 1993, following the Armenian
occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent Azerbaijani
territories, in order to support strategic ally Azerbaijan. However,
the ratification of the protocols was put on hold after Turkey
insisted Armenia must first agree to a solution to the long-standing
Nagorno-Karabakh issue as a precondition for normalization. The issue
of Armenia's withdrawal from the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven
adjacent territories is important to Ankara, which has frequently
signaled that this step would pave the way for the opening of its
border with Armenia. Richard Giragosian, director of the Yerevan-based
Regional Studies Center, also thinks the results of the Armenian
elections will have little impact on the country's relations with
Azerbajian or the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. `The landslide victory of
the ruling Republican Party will induce a degree of confidence and
will only bolster the position and political standing of the Armenian
president, especially as he is seeking re-election in the country's
looming presidential contest set for February 2012,' Giragosian told
Sunday's Zaman. He added that `we should expect a more assertive and
stronger pursuit of Armenian foreign policy. In terms of Azerbaijan,
this most likely suggests a deepening of the current status quo.'