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ON SARKOZY AND SARKSYAN
Vestnik Kavkaza
May 14 2012
Russia
The ex-president failed to balance different centers of power By
Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK
France has elected its new president, Francois Hollande. Nicolas
Sarkozy failed to get re-elected for a second term. This outcome was
predictable, and Sarkozy could have seen an even worse result, if the
socialists hadn't made a number of mistakes in their campaigning. One
of the important factors that contributed to the victory of Hollande
was the decision by the leader of French nationalists Marine le Pen
to urge her supporters not to vote for either of the second round
participants - and these voters were the only hope for Sarkozy.
The reasons for this defeat are obvious: the political course of
Sarkozy's government didn't answer the anticipations of the majority
of the French people. The situation with the Armenian Genocide denial
criminalization bill showed that Sarkozy couldn't balance between
different centers of power.
So one of the main intrigues of today's France is the foreign
political course of the new government. Will Paris be active in the
Nagorno-Karabakh settlement? The major part of the experts expects
Hollande's priorities will be with the issues of home economy and not
with any foreign political issues as French economy risks failing
in the face of the new European crisis. Hollande's desire to make
French economy more 'socialist' is understandable but seems to be
unrealizable. So the timeliest question of the French foreign politics
for now is whether the 'Paris-Berlin' alliance would hold, while
the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh is not on list of the new government's
urgent concerns.
As for the parliamentary elections in Armenia, their outcome was also
predictable: the ruling Republican party headed by the acting President
Serge Sarksyan won despite the aggressive campaigning of its ex-allies
and main rivals, the "Prosperous Armenia" party. The disagreements
between the two parties are likely to increase in the future.
As for the oppositional Armenian National Congress headed by Levon
Ter-Petrosyan, I believe that the opposition was 'let' into the
parliament, thus eliminating any grounds for mass protest actions.
Will the new parliament be efficient - we'll wait and see.
According to the experts, the Armenian elections are also unlikely
to influence the progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement. The
fragile balance will most likely be preserved. I believe that Baku
are expecting certain intensification of Russia's mediatory efforts
now that Vladimir Putin is president again. However, the settlement
process itself seems to be remaining in the dead-end it hit earlier.
Vestnik Kavkaza
May 14 2012
Russia
The ex-president failed to balance different centers of power By
Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK
France has elected its new president, Francois Hollande. Nicolas
Sarkozy failed to get re-elected for a second term. This outcome was
predictable, and Sarkozy could have seen an even worse result, if the
socialists hadn't made a number of mistakes in their campaigning. One
of the important factors that contributed to the victory of Hollande
was the decision by the leader of French nationalists Marine le Pen
to urge her supporters not to vote for either of the second round
participants - and these voters were the only hope for Sarkozy.
The reasons for this defeat are obvious: the political course of
Sarkozy's government didn't answer the anticipations of the majority
of the French people. The situation with the Armenian Genocide denial
criminalization bill showed that Sarkozy couldn't balance between
different centers of power.
So one of the main intrigues of today's France is the foreign
political course of the new government. Will Paris be active in the
Nagorno-Karabakh settlement? The major part of the experts expects
Hollande's priorities will be with the issues of home economy and not
with any foreign political issues as French economy risks failing
in the face of the new European crisis. Hollande's desire to make
French economy more 'socialist' is understandable but seems to be
unrealizable. So the timeliest question of the French foreign politics
for now is whether the 'Paris-Berlin' alliance would hold, while
the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh is not on list of the new government's
urgent concerns.
As for the parliamentary elections in Armenia, their outcome was also
predictable: the ruling Republican party headed by the acting President
Serge Sarksyan won despite the aggressive campaigning of its ex-allies
and main rivals, the "Prosperous Armenia" party. The disagreements
between the two parties are likely to increase in the future.
As for the oppositional Armenian National Congress headed by Levon
Ter-Petrosyan, I believe that the opposition was 'let' into the
parliament, thus eliminating any grounds for mass protest actions.
Will the new parliament be efficient - we'll wait and see.
According to the experts, the Armenian elections are also unlikely
to influence the progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement. The
fragile balance will most likely be preserved. I believe that Baku
are expecting certain intensification of Russia's mediatory efforts
now that Vladimir Putin is president again. However, the settlement
process itself seems to be remaining in the dead-end it hit earlier.