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'ACCIDENTAL WAR' WAITING TO HAPPEN ON EU PERIPHERY
EUobserver.com
May 14, 2012 Monday 10:25 AM GMT
If or when a full-blown conflict erupts between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
it will probably begin like this.
According to a senior source in the Armenian defence ministry, on
27 April Azerbaijani troops sneaked over the Armenian border in the
north-east province of Tavush and took up positions on either side
of a road connecting the villages of Movses and Aygepar.
At around 2am local time - the source said - they opened fire
from close range at the windscreen of an approaching car carrying
out-of-uniform Armenian soldiers. The ambush killed 28-year-old David
Abgaryan, 21-year-old Arshak Nersisyan and 26-year-old father-of-one
Aram Yesayan.
The killing is a "clear provocation," the source told EUobserver in
Yerevan on 5 May. He added: "We have not reacted yet. I underline
'yet'."
The Azerbaijani foreign ministry told this website that the incident
never took place. It says Armenia staged the hoax to create an
atmosphere of crisis to help the ruling party in elections on 6 May.
Disturbing claims and counter-claims are nothing new in the
25-year-long "frozen" conflict over the disputed territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh. But in this case outside observers favour the
Armenian line.
The Minsk Group - a club of French, Russian and US diplomats trying
to mediate between Baku and Yerevan - in a statement on 27 April
condemned "such senseless acts." A senior Yerevan-based EU diplomat
told EUobserver the Armenian account is "credible."
The 27 April incident marks an escalation because killings normally
take place along the "line of contact" on the Nagorno-Karabakh border,
not in Armenia or Azerbaijan proper.
It also comes in a dangerous new environment.
Open conflict used to be unlikely because neither side could win. But
petro-rich Azerbaijan has altered the balance of power. According to
the Stockholm-based research institute, Sipri, it spent $11 billion
on weapons in the past five years compared to less than $2 billion
by Armenia.
Its latest purchase - $1.6 billion of high-tech drones and missiles
from Israel - could be decisive if Israel also builds a joint training
and maintenance facility.
Peter Semneby, until recently the EU's special envoy to the region,
told this website: "The danger of an incident spiralling out of
control is gradually increasing."
'Accidental war'
Richard Giragosian, a US analyst who used to advise the CIA and
the Pentagon, said Azerbaijan killed the Armenian soldiers to look
important before assuming the rotating presidency of the UN Security
Council on 1 May. He also noted that the risk of an "accidental war"
in which a minor incident blows up is getting bigger.
If it does, it will be felt far beyond Nagorno-Karabakh.
In terms of direct threats to EU interests, it would increase oil
prices by destroying the BTC pipeline from the Caspian Sea to the
Mediterranean. It would also halt EU plans to reduce energy dependence
on Russia by building a gas pipeline through the region.
Meanwhile, Russia - which has 5,000 soldiers at its base in Gyumri,
Armenia - is obliged to intervene under the terms of the Nato-type
Collective Security Treaty Organisation. The US has 300 diplomats
and thousands of Armenian-American passport holders in Yerevan at
any given time.
Looking further afield, Turkey is a historic ally of Azerbaijan and
Iran is unhappy about the installation of Israeli weapons on its
northern flank.
The EU has so far limited its role to offering cheap visas and free
trade for Armenia and Azerbaijan if things go well.
For his part, Giragosian says it can do more: "It needs to send
a message to Azerbaijan that there is a price to pay for ceasefire
violations and to put pressure on Armenia to take positive unilateral
steps, such as pulling back snipers [from the line of contact]."
But with EU firms, such as Austria's OMV and Germany's RWE currently
negotiating gas contracts with Azerbaijan, there is little appetite
for annoying Baku.
'How many will I lose?'
Amid the geopolitical considerations, Armenia is sure of one thing: if
fighting escalates, its big friends will leave it to its own devices.
"If something goes wrong on Nagorno-Karabakh ... what will happen?
Let's do a scenario. The EU will say: 'We seriously condemn this and
we call on all parties to halt immediately.' The UN Security Council
will debate a resolution calling on all sides to do this or that.
There will be a commission," Armenian deputy foreign minister Zohrab
Mnatsakanian told EUobserver.
Looking back to the recent funerals of David Abgaryan, Arshak Nersisyan
and Aram Yesayan, he added: "How long will it all take?
Three days? Five days? How many people will I lose during these three
days? This is the way we think."
EUobserver.com
May 14, 2012 Monday 10:25 AM GMT
If or when a full-blown conflict erupts between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
it will probably begin like this.
According to a senior source in the Armenian defence ministry, on
27 April Azerbaijani troops sneaked over the Armenian border in the
north-east province of Tavush and took up positions on either side
of a road connecting the villages of Movses and Aygepar.
At around 2am local time - the source said - they opened fire
from close range at the windscreen of an approaching car carrying
out-of-uniform Armenian soldiers. The ambush killed 28-year-old David
Abgaryan, 21-year-old Arshak Nersisyan and 26-year-old father-of-one
Aram Yesayan.
The killing is a "clear provocation," the source told EUobserver in
Yerevan on 5 May. He added: "We have not reacted yet. I underline
'yet'."
The Azerbaijani foreign ministry told this website that the incident
never took place. It says Armenia staged the hoax to create an
atmosphere of crisis to help the ruling party in elections on 6 May.
Disturbing claims and counter-claims are nothing new in the
25-year-long "frozen" conflict over the disputed territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh. But in this case outside observers favour the
Armenian line.
The Minsk Group - a club of French, Russian and US diplomats trying
to mediate between Baku and Yerevan - in a statement on 27 April
condemned "such senseless acts." A senior Yerevan-based EU diplomat
told EUobserver the Armenian account is "credible."
The 27 April incident marks an escalation because killings normally
take place along the "line of contact" on the Nagorno-Karabakh border,
not in Armenia or Azerbaijan proper.
It also comes in a dangerous new environment.
Open conflict used to be unlikely because neither side could win. But
petro-rich Azerbaijan has altered the balance of power. According to
the Stockholm-based research institute, Sipri, it spent $11 billion
on weapons in the past five years compared to less than $2 billion
by Armenia.
Its latest purchase - $1.6 billion of high-tech drones and missiles
from Israel - could be decisive if Israel also builds a joint training
and maintenance facility.
Peter Semneby, until recently the EU's special envoy to the region,
told this website: "The danger of an incident spiralling out of
control is gradually increasing."
'Accidental war'
Richard Giragosian, a US analyst who used to advise the CIA and
the Pentagon, said Azerbaijan killed the Armenian soldiers to look
important before assuming the rotating presidency of the UN Security
Council on 1 May. He also noted that the risk of an "accidental war"
in which a minor incident blows up is getting bigger.
If it does, it will be felt far beyond Nagorno-Karabakh.
In terms of direct threats to EU interests, it would increase oil
prices by destroying the BTC pipeline from the Caspian Sea to the
Mediterranean. It would also halt EU plans to reduce energy dependence
on Russia by building a gas pipeline through the region.
Meanwhile, Russia - which has 5,000 soldiers at its base in Gyumri,
Armenia - is obliged to intervene under the terms of the Nato-type
Collective Security Treaty Organisation. The US has 300 diplomats
and thousands of Armenian-American passport holders in Yerevan at
any given time.
Looking further afield, Turkey is a historic ally of Azerbaijan and
Iran is unhappy about the installation of Israeli weapons on its
northern flank.
The EU has so far limited its role to offering cheap visas and free
trade for Armenia and Azerbaijan if things go well.
For his part, Giragosian says it can do more: "It needs to send
a message to Azerbaijan that there is a price to pay for ceasefire
violations and to put pressure on Armenia to take positive unilateral
steps, such as pulling back snipers [from the line of contact]."
But with EU firms, such as Austria's OMV and Germany's RWE currently
negotiating gas contracts with Azerbaijan, there is little appetite
for annoying Baku.
'How many will I lose?'
Amid the geopolitical considerations, Armenia is sure of one thing: if
fighting escalates, its big friends will leave it to its own devices.
"If something goes wrong on Nagorno-Karabakh ... what will happen?
Let's do a scenario. The EU will say: 'We seriously condemn this and
we call on all parties to halt immediately.' The UN Security Council
will debate a resolution calling on all sides to do this or that.
There will be a commission," Armenian deputy foreign minister Zohrab
Mnatsakanian told EUobserver.
Looking back to the recent funerals of David Abgaryan, Arshak Nersisyan
and Aram Yesayan, he added: "How long will it all take?
Three days? Five days? How many people will I lose during these three
days? This is the way we think."