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POLITICAL TRIANGLE: YEREVAN BELIEVES IN HOLLANDE'S STRATEGIC MATURITY TO KEEP FRANCE-ARMENIA-TURKEY BALANCE
By Siranuysh Gevorgyan
ArmeniaNow
15.05.12
Photo: www.wikipedia.org
Political analysts in Armenia are not too concerned about the newly
elected French president Francois Hollande's intentions to improve
the relations between France and Turkey, hoping that the new president
will lead a balanced policy in the Armenia-Turkey issue.
Prior to the May 6 elections, socialist leader Hollande had promised
to recover the good relations between France and Turkey that had
deteriorated because of the bill criminalizing the denial of the
Armenian genocide (the Senate passed the draft law which was later
declared anti-constitutional; Turkey temporarily called back its
ambassador from France, and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan stated that Turkey was terminating cooperation with France
in a number of spheres.)
At the same time Hollande assured the large Armenian community of
France that he would support the bill and has assumed the obligation
to submit the respective governmental bill in the beginning of his
tenure in order to make its ratification possible. Moreover, as Giro
Manoyan, leading the ARF Dashnaktsutyun's Bureau for Political Affairs
and the Armenian Cause, says yet a decade ago it was through the
socialists that the Armenian Cause office in France was able to start
the process of having France adopt a bill criminalizing the Armenian
genocide denial. It is this circumstance that inspires optimism to
Manoyan and belief that Hollande will have the bill ratified during
his tenure. Manoyan told ArmeniaNow that the difference between
Hollande and Sarkozy is about the way they build relations with
Turkey rather than about "the Armenian bill": as opposed to Sarkozy,
Hollande doesn't seem to mind Turkey's potential EU membership.
Erdogan in a phone conversation with president-elect Hollande said
he hoped "a new era" would start in the bilateral relations between
their countries void of any "artificial issues" affecting them.
Expert in Turkish studies Artak Shakaryan, however, believes that
Hollande will not bring about tangible changes in the French foreign
affairs agenda.
"Although France is a country with strong presidential apparatus,
a change of one person will not introduce any essential change in
the foreign policy. Turkey's EU membership is strategically not
in France's interests. Regardless of the fact that Hollande will
definitely lead a more reasonable policy with Turkey, he is someone who
has always supported Armenian initiatives, has visited the Armenian
Genocide memorial, is in close relations with the ARF Armenian Cause
office in France, has promised not to suspend the genocide denial
criminalization bill. Rumor has it he has even agreed to allocate
state means for arranging large-scale events in 2015, commemorating
the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide. Hollande is known
for his more moderate approach to Turkey's potential EU membership,
however he said he didn't believe it would happen during his term in
the office," Shakaryan told ArmeniaNow, adding that "since the next
presidential elections in France are not expected until five years
from now, he will not adopt a pro-Armenian policy since he won't need
their votes for the time being. We'll see to what extend the Armenian
issue matches France's strategic interests."
Expert in Turkish studies Ruben Safrastyan believes that Hollande
will not break his vow and will act upon the promise to back the
"Armenian bill", but "that won't happen right away."
"There is information that they are planning to reformulate the bill
so that it doesn't contradict the Constitution. I think the amended
text will have some kind of formulations that would cushion Turkey's
reaction," says Safrastyan.
From: A. Papazian
By Siranuysh Gevorgyan
ArmeniaNow
15.05.12
Photo: www.wikipedia.org
Political analysts in Armenia are not too concerned about the newly
elected French president Francois Hollande's intentions to improve
the relations between France and Turkey, hoping that the new president
will lead a balanced policy in the Armenia-Turkey issue.
Prior to the May 6 elections, socialist leader Hollande had promised
to recover the good relations between France and Turkey that had
deteriorated because of the bill criminalizing the denial of the
Armenian genocide (the Senate passed the draft law which was later
declared anti-constitutional; Turkey temporarily called back its
ambassador from France, and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan stated that Turkey was terminating cooperation with France
in a number of spheres.)
At the same time Hollande assured the large Armenian community of
France that he would support the bill and has assumed the obligation
to submit the respective governmental bill in the beginning of his
tenure in order to make its ratification possible. Moreover, as Giro
Manoyan, leading the ARF Dashnaktsutyun's Bureau for Political Affairs
and the Armenian Cause, says yet a decade ago it was through the
socialists that the Armenian Cause office in France was able to start
the process of having France adopt a bill criminalizing the Armenian
genocide denial. It is this circumstance that inspires optimism to
Manoyan and belief that Hollande will have the bill ratified during
his tenure. Manoyan told ArmeniaNow that the difference between
Hollande and Sarkozy is about the way they build relations with
Turkey rather than about "the Armenian bill": as opposed to Sarkozy,
Hollande doesn't seem to mind Turkey's potential EU membership.
Erdogan in a phone conversation with president-elect Hollande said
he hoped "a new era" would start in the bilateral relations between
their countries void of any "artificial issues" affecting them.
Expert in Turkish studies Artak Shakaryan, however, believes that
Hollande will not bring about tangible changes in the French foreign
affairs agenda.
"Although France is a country with strong presidential apparatus,
a change of one person will not introduce any essential change in
the foreign policy. Turkey's EU membership is strategically not
in France's interests. Regardless of the fact that Hollande will
definitely lead a more reasonable policy with Turkey, he is someone who
has always supported Armenian initiatives, has visited the Armenian
Genocide memorial, is in close relations with the ARF Armenian Cause
office in France, has promised not to suspend the genocide denial
criminalization bill. Rumor has it he has even agreed to allocate
state means for arranging large-scale events in 2015, commemorating
the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide. Hollande is known
for his more moderate approach to Turkey's potential EU membership,
however he said he didn't believe it would happen during his term in
the office," Shakaryan told ArmeniaNow, adding that "since the next
presidential elections in France are not expected until five years
from now, he will not adopt a pro-Armenian policy since he won't need
their votes for the time being. We'll see to what extend the Armenian
issue matches France's strategic interests."
Expert in Turkish studies Ruben Safrastyan believes that Hollande
will not break his vow and will act upon the promise to back the
"Armenian bill", but "that won't happen right away."
"There is information that they are planning to reformulate the bill
so that it doesn't contradict the Constitution. I think the amended
text will have some kind of formulations that would cushion Turkey's
reaction," says Safrastyan.
From: A. Papazian