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PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS ARE LIKE SILENT MEANS TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO
by Ashot Safaryan
arminfo
Thursday, May 17, 20:50
The May 6 parliamentary elections, which should have dotted all the
"i"s, complicated the domestic political situation in the country.
After the MPs of the new parliament became known, the issue of
their interaction format arose. After the preliminary results of the
elections were made public, the media and the politicians started
discussing the possible future coalition and its structure.
On the one hand, the "brilliant victory" of the ruling Republican
Party of Armenia (RPA) is obvious: the party has not only maintained
the parliamentary majority, but also increased the number of its
seats by 5 seats to 69 in the parliament, thereby having become an
absolute majority. This circumstance must give big self-confidence to
the ruling party. Theoretically, under these conditions, the ruling
party may just as well afford doing without a coalition. However,
given the doubtfulness of the election technologies, insufficient
public confidence in the power institute, as well as the serious
problems and challenges in all spheres, the sole ruling of the
Republicans is rather hazardous.
At the elections the most serious opponent of the ruling party was the
Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), which was in a coalition with the RPA
in the previous parliament. The PAP conducted a quite pro-opposition
election campaign, having created joint campaign headquarters
with the Armenian National Congress (ANC) and ARF Dashnaktsutyun
(ARFD). The PAP obtained 30.12% of votes and a total of 37 seats
in the parliament. The PAP's partners in the joint headquarters,
namely ANC and ARFD obtained 7 and 6 seats respectively. Taking into
account the 5 seats of Heritage Party, another opposition force, one
cannot theoretically rule out that the specified four forces could
have become a serious counterweight to the ruling party in case of
consolidation. In practice, however, the situation is different.
It is obvious that today, the PAP Leader, large businessman Gagik
Tsarukyan faces a complex dilemma. Given the lack of normal business
climate in the country, lack of supremacy of the law, fusion of power
and business, it is easy to guess what fate the oligarch No.1 will
have if he joins the opposition. The precedents of the consequences
of disobedience are exemplified by the fate of Khachatur Sukiasyan,
the co-founder of SIL GROUP. One more factor ruling out the PAP's
possible joining the opposition is the lack of a clear and different
ideology from the ruling party. In the parliament of the previous,
4th convocation, the PAP failed to display independent stance, except
for two bills the PAP voted against.
When considering the possible options of the PAP's political
behavior, it is impossible to put the second president of Armenia,
Robert Kocharyan, out of account. According to a number of experts,
Prosperous Armenia has two leaders - Gagik Tsarukyan, the formal
leader, and Robert Kocharyan, the behind-the-scenes leader, who formed
the key personnel of this party. The given circumstance can inspire
hope to a certain extent that in the current political situation the
PAP can play its independent role, having such an iconic figure behind
its back. Moreover, Kocharyan has never dissociated himself from the
political processes, regardless of how he denies his involvement in the
PAP's activity. Furthermore, in some interviews the ex-president does
not rule out his return to the politics in case of certain factors. The
question whether there are such factors is still open and topical.
The independence of Prosperous Armenia would hardly be disputed
were it not for its pre-election alliance with the Armenian National
Congress. The ANC has lost most of its popularity in the past two-three
years, and lost even more when its leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan announced
that they were going to ally with Prosperous Armenia - a party he
earlier called the second biggest force of the bandocrat regime. It
seems that Prosperous Armenia was just a tool in the hands of the
regime, a kind of Trojan Horse, sent to the camp of the Congress to
discredit it in the eyes of its voters. In his turn, Ter-Petrosyan
was planning to cause a split in the ruling coalition.
Prosperous Armenia is yet to decide to form a coalition or not,
while the ANC will in any case continue annoying the Republicans -
simply now they will do it from the parliamentary tribune.
The position of the ARFD and Heritage heavily depends on the behavior
of the three major forces - the RPA, Prosperous Armenia and the
Armenian National Congress - for the Dashnaks and Heritage have too
few seats to decide anything in the parliament. The same is true
for Orinats Yerkir, with its six seats. Artur Baghdasaryan and his
party have just secured a comfortable place under the "warm wing"
of the rulers in hope to sneak a morsel from their political and
economic cake.
If the parliamentary opposition consolidates around Prosperous Armenia,
it may become a serious counterbalance to the ruling regime, but
Prosperous Armenia will hardly agree to it, considering the high
economic risks this may imply. On the other hand, the persistence
that party is showing in refusing to support Serzh Sargsyan during
the presidential election 2013 implies that it still has chances to
be "sovereign." In fact, Gagik Tsarukyan is just waiting to see what
the second and third presidents will decide. Contrary to the popular
opinion that Robert Kocharyan keeps threatening the Republicans with
his comeback, he and Sargsyan are from the same team called "Karabakh
clan" and surrounded by an army of ill-wishers.
Whatever the case, Prosperous Armenia is most likely to be in
the coalition, at least, because it is unwilling and unprepared
to sacrifice the ministerial offices and the other benefits the
governmental status may give. And it will most probably stop being
"opposition" till the next election, especially as some "evil tongues"
are already rumoring that the second man in Prosperous Armenia, ex
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan may be appointed as the speaker of
the new parliament.
From: A. Papazian
by Ashot Safaryan
arminfo
Thursday, May 17, 20:50
The May 6 parliamentary elections, which should have dotted all the
"i"s, complicated the domestic political situation in the country.
After the MPs of the new parliament became known, the issue of
their interaction format arose. After the preliminary results of the
elections were made public, the media and the politicians started
discussing the possible future coalition and its structure.
On the one hand, the "brilliant victory" of the ruling Republican
Party of Armenia (RPA) is obvious: the party has not only maintained
the parliamentary majority, but also increased the number of its
seats by 5 seats to 69 in the parliament, thereby having become an
absolute majority. This circumstance must give big self-confidence to
the ruling party. Theoretically, under these conditions, the ruling
party may just as well afford doing without a coalition. However,
given the doubtfulness of the election technologies, insufficient
public confidence in the power institute, as well as the serious
problems and challenges in all spheres, the sole ruling of the
Republicans is rather hazardous.
At the elections the most serious opponent of the ruling party was the
Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), which was in a coalition with the RPA
in the previous parliament. The PAP conducted a quite pro-opposition
election campaign, having created joint campaign headquarters
with the Armenian National Congress (ANC) and ARF Dashnaktsutyun
(ARFD). The PAP obtained 30.12% of votes and a total of 37 seats
in the parliament. The PAP's partners in the joint headquarters,
namely ANC and ARFD obtained 7 and 6 seats respectively. Taking into
account the 5 seats of Heritage Party, another opposition force, one
cannot theoretically rule out that the specified four forces could
have become a serious counterweight to the ruling party in case of
consolidation. In practice, however, the situation is different.
It is obvious that today, the PAP Leader, large businessman Gagik
Tsarukyan faces a complex dilemma. Given the lack of normal business
climate in the country, lack of supremacy of the law, fusion of power
and business, it is easy to guess what fate the oligarch No.1 will
have if he joins the opposition. The precedents of the consequences
of disobedience are exemplified by the fate of Khachatur Sukiasyan,
the co-founder of SIL GROUP. One more factor ruling out the PAP's
possible joining the opposition is the lack of a clear and different
ideology from the ruling party. In the parliament of the previous,
4th convocation, the PAP failed to display independent stance, except
for two bills the PAP voted against.
When considering the possible options of the PAP's political
behavior, it is impossible to put the second president of Armenia,
Robert Kocharyan, out of account. According to a number of experts,
Prosperous Armenia has two leaders - Gagik Tsarukyan, the formal
leader, and Robert Kocharyan, the behind-the-scenes leader, who formed
the key personnel of this party. The given circumstance can inspire
hope to a certain extent that in the current political situation the
PAP can play its independent role, having such an iconic figure behind
its back. Moreover, Kocharyan has never dissociated himself from the
political processes, regardless of how he denies his involvement in the
PAP's activity. Furthermore, in some interviews the ex-president does
not rule out his return to the politics in case of certain factors. The
question whether there are such factors is still open and topical.
The independence of Prosperous Armenia would hardly be disputed
were it not for its pre-election alliance with the Armenian National
Congress. The ANC has lost most of its popularity in the past two-three
years, and lost even more when its leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan announced
that they were going to ally with Prosperous Armenia - a party he
earlier called the second biggest force of the bandocrat regime. It
seems that Prosperous Armenia was just a tool in the hands of the
regime, a kind of Trojan Horse, sent to the camp of the Congress to
discredit it in the eyes of its voters. In his turn, Ter-Petrosyan
was planning to cause a split in the ruling coalition.
Prosperous Armenia is yet to decide to form a coalition or not,
while the ANC will in any case continue annoying the Republicans -
simply now they will do it from the parliamentary tribune.
The position of the ARFD and Heritage heavily depends on the behavior
of the three major forces - the RPA, Prosperous Armenia and the
Armenian National Congress - for the Dashnaks and Heritage have too
few seats to decide anything in the parliament. The same is true
for Orinats Yerkir, with its six seats. Artur Baghdasaryan and his
party have just secured a comfortable place under the "warm wing"
of the rulers in hope to sneak a morsel from their political and
economic cake.
If the parliamentary opposition consolidates around Prosperous Armenia,
it may become a serious counterbalance to the ruling regime, but
Prosperous Armenia will hardly agree to it, considering the high
economic risks this may imply. On the other hand, the persistence
that party is showing in refusing to support Serzh Sargsyan during
the presidential election 2013 implies that it still has chances to
be "sovereign." In fact, Gagik Tsarukyan is just waiting to see what
the second and third presidents will decide. Contrary to the popular
opinion that Robert Kocharyan keeps threatening the Republicans with
his comeback, he and Sargsyan are from the same team called "Karabakh
clan" and surrounded by an army of ill-wishers.
Whatever the case, Prosperous Armenia is most likely to be in
the coalition, at least, because it is unwilling and unprepared
to sacrifice the ministerial offices and the other benefits the
governmental status may give. And it will most probably stop being
"opposition" till the next election, especially as some "evil tongues"
are already rumoring that the second man in Prosperous Armenia, ex
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan may be appointed as the speaker of
the new parliament.
From: A. Papazian