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A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IS NOT A TAXI TO BE STOPPED WHEREVER AND WHENEVER ONE LIKES
by Alexander Avanesov
arminfo
Wednesday, May 23, 01:36
The license for delivery of electric power from Georgia to Armenia will
expire on 31 December 2013. The official buyer of Georgian electric
power is the Yerevan Thermal Power Plant (TPP), which thinks that the
electricity is imported thanks to its cheaper price. In 2011 alone
Armenia imported 210 mln KW/h of electric power from Georgia, which
was as much as throughout 2010. Georgia, unlike Armenia, has a market
pricing for electric power, which is a crucial factor for attracting
investors. No wonder that Inter RAO has sold the Sevan-Hrazdan HPP
Cascade to RusHydro. The Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade proved to be
loss-making and burdened with a big investment program, which made
its payback period longer.
Against this background, the attempts to implement a project
on construction of a new nuclear power unit in Armenia seem at
least strange. A natural question arises - what for, if we buy the
electric power abroad? Moreover, at the moment the republic has 3200
MW installed capacity, whereas in winter only 1300 MW is used. Even
if one takes into account a possible two-digit economic growth in the
country within the next 5-6 years (which is rather doubtful), it will
all the same be impossible to reach the maximum level of consumption.
Nevertheless, when implementing a project on perspective development of
the energy sector, Armenia has made its decision in favor of nuclear
potential development. The given fact in itself was predicted.
But the accident at Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant in Japan was not
predicted. This accident has once again raised worldwide the problem
of safety of the nuclear power units. As a result, the Government of
Germany made a decision on gradual decommissioning of its nuclear
power units. China also wonders whether it is expedient to build a
new power unit.
We wouldn't like to hurt the Armenian nuclear physicists, but their
professionalism is unlikely to outstrip that of the Japanese or German
specialists. The experienced power engineers remember the incident in
the early 1980s, when a fire occurred at the Armenian Nuclear Power
Plant, which could have led to a disaster. There are no guarantees
that no such emergency situation will happen again. Realizing all
these factors, the European Union insists on decommissioning of the
Armenian NPP as soon as possible. Moreover, Euroatom Organization
is ready to lend 200 mln EUR for decommissioning of the NPP. It is
also noteworthy that the EU is not ready to stimulate the project on
construction of a new nuclear power unit in Armenia.
In terms of politics, the intentions of the Armenian authorities are
quite easy to understand. Nuclear technologies give the country access
to the nuclear club and its privileges. But in terms of economics,
there are lots of questions. After the Fukushima accident in Japan,
the requirements to nuclear power plants have been toughened. The
new reactor will cost Armenia as much as $5bln, which will become
a heavy burden for its economy as the investors will insist on high
tariffs in hope to return their money as quickly as possible.
But the main question is what we will do with the excess of
electricity. Georgia does not need it. Iran is going to build as many
as 20 nuclear and thermal power units. Turkey is also planning to
have its own NPP and, as a big consumer of Iranian, Russia and Azeri
gas, is actively developing its thermal and hydro energy sectors. The
arguments of our Energy and Natural Resource Ministry that renewable
and alternative energy sources will not suffice Armenia for meeting
its basic needs are not very convincing, especially considering our
real needs. For our economy, the way it is now, it is enough to have
what we already have, plus the planned water power plants in Meghri,
Shnokh and Lori-Berd (of course, if they are built). Taken together,
these plants will be as powerful as the existing unit of Armenian
Nuclear Power Plant. You may add to this the small water power plants
that are supposed to be built in the next four-five years and to
produce as much as 900mln KWh against 480mln KWh in 2011.
Generally, when planning energy development, they in the world
consider a similar plan for the economy. Are we planning any economic
back-up for the megawatts we are going to create? For tourism or,
say, information technologies we are not. So as to have an efficiency
energy sector, we need to restart all of our industrial capacities:
Nairit Plant, Yerevan Tire Works, Armkhimmash and the other 1,400
factories that enjoyed monopoly in the Soviet times but today are
either idle or no longer existent.
In one word, as Armenia's Energy and Natural Resource Minister Armen
Movsisyan put it once, a nuclear power plant is not a taxi you can stop
wherever and whenever you like, an NPP is a complex mechanism requiring
close control and regulation. Let's hope it will be the way he said.
by Alexander Avanesov
arminfo
Wednesday, May 23, 01:36
The license for delivery of electric power from Georgia to Armenia will
expire on 31 December 2013. The official buyer of Georgian electric
power is the Yerevan Thermal Power Plant (TPP), which thinks that the
electricity is imported thanks to its cheaper price. In 2011 alone
Armenia imported 210 mln KW/h of electric power from Georgia, which
was as much as throughout 2010. Georgia, unlike Armenia, has a market
pricing for electric power, which is a crucial factor for attracting
investors. No wonder that Inter RAO has sold the Sevan-Hrazdan HPP
Cascade to RusHydro. The Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade proved to be
loss-making and burdened with a big investment program, which made
its payback period longer.
Against this background, the attempts to implement a project
on construction of a new nuclear power unit in Armenia seem at
least strange. A natural question arises - what for, if we buy the
electric power abroad? Moreover, at the moment the republic has 3200
MW installed capacity, whereas in winter only 1300 MW is used. Even
if one takes into account a possible two-digit economic growth in the
country within the next 5-6 years (which is rather doubtful), it will
all the same be impossible to reach the maximum level of consumption.
Nevertheless, when implementing a project on perspective development of
the energy sector, Armenia has made its decision in favor of nuclear
potential development. The given fact in itself was predicted.
But the accident at Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant in Japan was not
predicted. This accident has once again raised worldwide the problem
of safety of the nuclear power units. As a result, the Government of
Germany made a decision on gradual decommissioning of its nuclear
power units. China also wonders whether it is expedient to build a
new power unit.
We wouldn't like to hurt the Armenian nuclear physicists, but their
professionalism is unlikely to outstrip that of the Japanese or German
specialists. The experienced power engineers remember the incident in
the early 1980s, when a fire occurred at the Armenian Nuclear Power
Plant, which could have led to a disaster. There are no guarantees
that no such emergency situation will happen again. Realizing all
these factors, the European Union insists on decommissioning of the
Armenian NPP as soon as possible. Moreover, Euroatom Organization
is ready to lend 200 mln EUR for decommissioning of the NPP. It is
also noteworthy that the EU is not ready to stimulate the project on
construction of a new nuclear power unit in Armenia.
In terms of politics, the intentions of the Armenian authorities are
quite easy to understand. Nuclear technologies give the country access
to the nuclear club and its privileges. But in terms of economics,
there are lots of questions. After the Fukushima accident in Japan,
the requirements to nuclear power plants have been toughened. The
new reactor will cost Armenia as much as $5bln, which will become
a heavy burden for its economy as the investors will insist on high
tariffs in hope to return their money as quickly as possible.
But the main question is what we will do with the excess of
electricity. Georgia does not need it. Iran is going to build as many
as 20 nuclear and thermal power units. Turkey is also planning to
have its own NPP and, as a big consumer of Iranian, Russia and Azeri
gas, is actively developing its thermal and hydro energy sectors. The
arguments of our Energy and Natural Resource Ministry that renewable
and alternative energy sources will not suffice Armenia for meeting
its basic needs are not very convincing, especially considering our
real needs. For our economy, the way it is now, it is enough to have
what we already have, plus the planned water power plants in Meghri,
Shnokh and Lori-Berd (of course, if they are built). Taken together,
these plants will be as powerful as the existing unit of Armenian
Nuclear Power Plant. You may add to this the small water power plants
that are supposed to be built in the next four-five years and to
produce as much as 900mln KWh against 480mln KWh in 2011.
Generally, when planning energy development, they in the world
consider a similar plan for the economy. Are we planning any economic
back-up for the megawatts we are going to create? For tourism or,
say, information technologies we are not. So as to have an efficiency
energy sector, we need to restart all of our industrial capacities:
Nairit Plant, Yerevan Tire Works, Armkhimmash and the other 1,400
factories that enjoyed monopoly in the Soviet times but today are
either idle or no longer existent.
In one word, as Armenia's Energy and Natural Resource Minister Armen
Movsisyan put it once, a nuclear power plant is not a taxi you can stop
wherever and whenever you like, an NPP is a complex mechanism requiring
close control and regulation. Let's hope it will be the way he said.