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WILL DISPUTES WITHIN TWO STRONGEST PARTIES NIX NEW ARMENIAN COALITION?
Radio Free Europe
May 21, 2012
Two weeks after the May 6 parliamentary elections, it remains unclear
whether President Serzh Sarkisian's Republican Party of Armenia (HHK)
will again seek to form a coalition government as it did in 1999,
2004, and 2007. The HHK garnered 69 of the 131 parliament mandates.
Its two partners in the outgoing government, Bargavach Hayastan
(Prosperous Armenia, BHK) and Orinats Yerkir (Rule of Law, OY),
received 37 and six mandates, respectively.
President Sarkisian met on May 16 with BHK Chairman Gagik Tsarukian
to discuss a new power-sharing agreement, but the outcome of those
talks remains unclear. The pro-opposition daily "Haykakan zhamanak"
predicted on May 17 that the new prime minister and parliament speaker
would be named at a meeting later that day of the HHK executive
committee, but no such announcements were forthcoming. HHK spokesman
Eduard Sharmazanov told reporters after that meeting that neither
the possibility of a new coalition nor personnel appointments were
discussed.
Sharmazanov did disclose, however, that the HHK has approached other
parties too to discuss forming a coalition. The daily "Zhoghovurd"
quoted OY leader Artur Baghdasarian as saying his party will have two
portfolios (agriculture and emergency situations) in the new cabinet.
There are several possible reasons for the ongoing stalemate. The first
is the increasingly strained relations over the past year between
the HHK and the BHK resulting from Tsarukian's clear reluctance
either to back Sarkisian's candidacy in the presidential ballot due
in February 2013 or to form an electoral alliance with the HHK for
the parliamentary elections. In early April, the BHK aligned with the
opposition Armenian National Congress and the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation -- Dashnaktsutiun (HHD) to form an Inter-Party Center for
Public Oversight of the Elections with the aim of preventing fraud
and vote-rigging where possible and publicizing those procedural
violations it was unable to prevent. It was largely because Tsarukian
demonstratively distanced himself from the coalition that his party
came to be seen as a viable alternative to the HHK, garnering almost
twice as many votes as in the 2007 election.
The second is the lack of cohesion within the HHK, which one
Armenian commentator recently characterized as "a cartel political
structure comprising various factions ranging from conservatives to
neo-liberals." For that reason, it is conceivable that its leadership
is split over whether it is expedient to form a coalition with the
BHK. True, the HHK's 69 mandates give it an overall majority in
parliament. But OY's additional six mandates add up to a total of
only 75, less than the 2/3 majority (88 mandates) needed to push
through changes to the legislative code.
There is also reportedly intense jockeying under way within the HHK
for the posts of prime minister, deputy prime minister, and parliament
speaker. Former parliament speaker Hovik Abrahamian, who stepped down
from that post late last year to manage the HHK election campaign,
is reportedly angling for the post of prime minister, while President
Sarkisian wants current Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisian (to whom he is
not related) to remain in that post until the presidential elections
due in February 2013.
Third, there is a similar lack of unanimity within the BHK ranks
over whether to form a coalition with the HHK. Some core members are
reportedly reluctant to risk the loss of influence and privileges that
discontinuing cooperation with the ruling party would entail. Others
argue that continuing that cooperation would be a betrayal of those
voters who sought a viable political alternative, especially in light
of the HHK's perceived responsibility for the numerous procedural
violations that cast doubt over the fairness of the ballot and the
accuracy of the officially promulgated results.
The BHK and its partners in the Inter-Party Center for Public Oversight
of the Elections issued a statement on May 11 alleging widespread
voter list manipulation and multiple fraudulent voting.
"Violating legal provisions, the Central Election Commission (CEC)
failed to ensure the proper application of passport stamps, the most
important tool for preventing multiple voting," the statement read.
"The voter lists used in the elections and the officially announced
number of voters who took part in the elections are also extremely
dubious," it continued, adding that the newly elected National Assembly
"does not therefore reflect the real picture of popular support for
political forces."
In a May 8 statement, BHK Chairman Tsarukian thanked all those who
cast their ballots for his party and assured them that "my further
political decisions will be made after discussions with my team."
Tsarukian did not specify whether he considers the CEC results, which
put his party in second place, to be credible. Nor did he say if he
will leave the governing coalition or strike a new power-sharing deal
with Sarkisian.
Senior BHK parliamentarian Naira Zohrabian, for her part, issued a
statement on May 16 that did little to clarify the situation. "I
want to emphasize once again that no coalition can be an end in
itself for us," she said. "Having or not having several more or
fewer ministers does not matter to the BHK. Our objective is more
global: the formation of a government, whether a coalition one or
not, that would swiftly address the serious challenges facing the
country, improve the socioeconomic plight of the people, and change
the business environment and economic atmosphere in the country,"
read the statement. Zohrabian added vaguely that the BHK will take
no steps that would "undermine the people's faith and trust in us."
Zohrabian has separately declined to comment on a report in the daily
"Yerkir" that she is in line for the post of deputy parliament speaker.
Former Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, who was second on the list of
BH candidates elected under the proportional system, said on May 11
that Tsarukian was "simply listening to various opinions." Oskanian
himself has consistently argued forcefully that BH should not enter
a coalition that is not a genuine one.
Two other prominent political figures elected on the BH party list,
Association of Politologists head Hmayak Hovannisian and United
Labor Party Chairman and businessman Gurgen Arsenian, reportedly also
oppose BH's participation in the new government. Some observers have
speculated that they might voluntarily surrender their mandates in
the event that BH does agree to enter a coalition. It has also been
suggested that Tsarukian might order them to do so. Hovannisian has
implicitly confirmed that possibility, saying the final decision on
whether or not he enters parliament lies with Tsarukian.
A further factor Tsarukian must take into consideration is that
the HHK is likely to make any invitation to join the new government
contingent on the BHK backing incumbent President Sarkisian in next
year's presidential election. Whether Tsarukian might counter by
setting conditions of his own is unclear. The president is reputedly an
experienced and successful gambler, but Tsarukian may have an ace up
his sleeve: according to the Russian news agency Regnum, if the BHK
were to renounce all its parliament mandates, a new election would
have to be held.
The first session of the newly elected parliament is scheduled for
May 31, after which the HHK has 50 days to form a government.
Radio Free Europe
May 21, 2012
Two weeks after the May 6 parliamentary elections, it remains unclear
whether President Serzh Sarkisian's Republican Party of Armenia (HHK)
will again seek to form a coalition government as it did in 1999,
2004, and 2007. The HHK garnered 69 of the 131 parliament mandates.
Its two partners in the outgoing government, Bargavach Hayastan
(Prosperous Armenia, BHK) and Orinats Yerkir (Rule of Law, OY),
received 37 and six mandates, respectively.
President Sarkisian met on May 16 with BHK Chairman Gagik Tsarukian
to discuss a new power-sharing agreement, but the outcome of those
talks remains unclear. The pro-opposition daily "Haykakan zhamanak"
predicted on May 17 that the new prime minister and parliament speaker
would be named at a meeting later that day of the HHK executive
committee, but no such announcements were forthcoming. HHK spokesman
Eduard Sharmazanov told reporters after that meeting that neither
the possibility of a new coalition nor personnel appointments were
discussed.
Sharmazanov did disclose, however, that the HHK has approached other
parties too to discuss forming a coalition. The daily "Zhoghovurd"
quoted OY leader Artur Baghdasarian as saying his party will have two
portfolios (agriculture and emergency situations) in the new cabinet.
There are several possible reasons for the ongoing stalemate. The first
is the increasingly strained relations over the past year between
the HHK and the BHK resulting from Tsarukian's clear reluctance
either to back Sarkisian's candidacy in the presidential ballot due
in February 2013 or to form an electoral alliance with the HHK for
the parliamentary elections. In early April, the BHK aligned with the
opposition Armenian National Congress and the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation -- Dashnaktsutiun (HHD) to form an Inter-Party Center for
Public Oversight of the Elections with the aim of preventing fraud
and vote-rigging where possible and publicizing those procedural
violations it was unable to prevent. It was largely because Tsarukian
demonstratively distanced himself from the coalition that his party
came to be seen as a viable alternative to the HHK, garnering almost
twice as many votes as in the 2007 election.
The second is the lack of cohesion within the HHK, which one
Armenian commentator recently characterized as "a cartel political
structure comprising various factions ranging from conservatives to
neo-liberals." For that reason, it is conceivable that its leadership
is split over whether it is expedient to form a coalition with the
BHK. True, the HHK's 69 mandates give it an overall majority in
parliament. But OY's additional six mandates add up to a total of
only 75, less than the 2/3 majority (88 mandates) needed to push
through changes to the legislative code.
There is also reportedly intense jockeying under way within the HHK
for the posts of prime minister, deputy prime minister, and parliament
speaker. Former parliament speaker Hovik Abrahamian, who stepped down
from that post late last year to manage the HHK election campaign,
is reportedly angling for the post of prime minister, while President
Sarkisian wants current Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisian (to whom he is
not related) to remain in that post until the presidential elections
due in February 2013.
Third, there is a similar lack of unanimity within the BHK ranks
over whether to form a coalition with the HHK. Some core members are
reportedly reluctant to risk the loss of influence and privileges that
discontinuing cooperation with the ruling party would entail. Others
argue that continuing that cooperation would be a betrayal of those
voters who sought a viable political alternative, especially in light
of the HHK's perceived responsibility for the numerous procedural
violations that cast doubt over the fairness of the ballot and the
accuracy of the officially promulgated results.
The BHK and its partners in the Inter-Party Center for Public Oversight
of the Elections issued a statement on May 11 alleging widespread
voter list manipulation and multiple fraudulent voting.
"Violating legal provisions, the Central Election Commission (CEC)
failed to ensure the proper application of passport stamps, the most
important tool for preventing multiple voting," the statement read.
"The voter lists used in the elections and the officially announced
number of voters who took part in the elections are also extremely
dubious," it continued, adding that the newly elected National Assembly
"does not therefore reflect the real picture of popular support for
political forces."
In a May 8 statement, BHK Chairman Tsarukian thanked all those who
cast their ballots for his party and assured them that "my further
political decisions will be made after discussions with my team."
Tsarukian did not specify whether he considers the CEC results, which
put his party in second place, to be credible. Nor did he say if he
will leave the governing coalition or strike a new power-sharing deal
with Sarkisian.
Senior BHK parliamentarian Naira Zohrabian, for her part, issued a
statement on May 16 that did little to clarify the situation. "I
want to emphasize once again that no coalition can be an end in
itself for us," she said. "Having or not having several more or
fewer ministers does not matter to the BHK. Our objective is more
global: the formation of a government, whether a coalition one or
not, that would swiftly address the serious challenges facing the
country, improve the socioeconomic plight of the people, and change
the business environment and economic atmosphere in the country,"
read the statement. Zohrabian added vaguely that the BHK will take
no steps that would "undermine the people's faith and trust in us."
Zohrabian has separately declined to comment on a report in the daily
"Yerkir" that she is in line for the post of deputy parliament speaker.
Former Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, who was second on the list of
BH candidates elected under the proportional system, said on May 11
that Tsarukian was "simply listening to various opinions." Oskanian
himself has consistently argued forcefully that BH should not enter
a coalition that is not a genuine one.
Two other prominent political figures elected on the BH party list,
Association of Politologists head Hmayak Hovannisian and United
Labor Party Chairman and businessman Gurgen Arsenian, reportedly also
oppose BH's participation in the new government. Some observers have
speculated that they might voluntarily surrender their mandates in
the event that BH does agree to enter a coalition. It has also been
suggested that Tsarukian might order them to do so. Hovannisian has
implicitly confirmed that possibility, saying the final decision on
whether or not he enters parliament lies with Tsarukian.
A further factor Tsarukian must take into consideration is that
the HHK is likely to make any invitation to join the new government
contingent on the BHK backing incumbent President Sarkisian in next
year's presidential election. Whether Tsarukian might counter by
setting conditions of his own is unclear. The president is reputedly an
experienced and successful gambler, but Tsarukian may have an ace up
his sleeve: according to the Russian news agency Regnum, if the BHK
were to renounce all its parliament mandates, a new election would
have to be held.
The first session of the newly elected parliament is scheduled for
May 31, after which the HHK has 50 days to form a government.