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ARMENIAN GROWTH EASES IN APRIL AS EXPORTS FALL
BY: Venla Sipila
Global Insight
May 22, 2012
According to the latest indicator of economic activity published by the
Armenian National Statistical Service, growth in April 2012 reached
4.8% year-on-year (y/y), AMINFO News reports. This result signals
moderation in economic growth and follows a gain of 6.6% y/y in March
2012, while bringing the expansion rate for January-April 2012 to 7.2%
y/y. Growth of economic activity in April benefited greatly from a
surge of some 45% y/y in agricultural activity, while the domestic
trade and construction sectors expanded. For the January-April period,
industrial output led growth with an estimated expansion rate of 15.3%
y/y. The Statistical Agency also reported on customs-based foreign
trade, noting that exports in January-April increased by 17.8% y/y,
while falling by around the same rate in April alone and plummeting by
43.4% from March. Meanwhile, imports in the four-month period increased
by 8.7% y/y. Exports in January-April totaled USD439.5 million;
imports were valued at USD1.3 billion. The resultant four-month
trade deficit of USD872.4 million represents widening of around 4%
in annual comparison.
Significance:The fairly recently introduced index of economic activity
reflects overall trends in the economy, while its growth of 5.9% over
the last year as a whole exceeded the reported GDP increase of 4.6%.
However, the message given by the growth index, whereby economic
activity still remains fairly respectable but is at present losing
some momentum, fits fairly well with IHS Global Insight's current
view of the economy. Growth is likely to weaken over the next few
quarters, together with easing expansion of the industrial sector. The
construction sector's outlook is also relatively subdued at present.
Then again, assuming a good harvest, growth should easily exceed
3% this year. Meanwhile, the recently very strong boost to exports
from very elevated metal prices now seems to be fading, as we have
projected. This will be reflected further in weakening industrial
growth. While overall easing of growth should also start to have
a stronger suppressing impact on imports, the trade gap definitely
remains wide enough to present a clear source of external financial
risks.
From: A. Papazian
BY: Venla Sipila
Global Insight
May 22, 2012
According to the latest indicator of economic activity published by the
Armenian National Statistical Service, growth in April 2012 reached
4.8% year-on-year (y/y), AMINFO News reports. This result signals
moderation in economic growth and follows a gain of 6.6% y/y in March
2012, while bringing the expansion rate for January-April 2012 to 7.2%
y/y. Growth of economic activity in April benefited greatly from a
surge of some 45% y/y in agricultural activity, while the domestic
trade and construction sectors expanded. For the January-April period,
industrial output led growth with an estimated expansion rate of 15.3%
y/y. The Statistical Agency also reported on customs-based foreign
trade, noting that exports in January-April increased by 17.8% y/y,
while falling by around the same rate in April alone and plummeting by
43.4% from March. Meanwhile, imports in the four-month period increased
by 8.7% y/y. Exports in January-April totaled USD439.5 million;
imports were valued at USD1.3 billion. The resultant four-month
trade deficit of USD872.4 million represents widening of around 4%
in annual comparison.
Significance:The fairly recently introduced index of economic activity
reflects overall trends in the economy, while its growth of 5.9% over
the last year as a whole exceeded the reported GDP increase of 4.6%.
However, the message given by the growth index, whereby economic
activity still remains fairly respectable but is at present losing
some momentum, fits fairly well with IHS Global Insight's current
view of the economy. Growth is likely to weaken over the next few
quarters, together with easing expansion of the industrial sector. The
construction sector's outlook is also relatively subdued at present.
Then again, assuming a good harvest, growth should easily exceed
3% this year. Meanwhile, the recently very strong boost to exports
from very elevated metal prices now seems to be fading, as we have
projected. This will be reflected further in weakening industrial
growth. While overall easing of growth should also start to have
a stronger suppressing impact on imports, the trade gap definitely
remains wide enough to present a clear source of external financial
risks.
From: A. Papazian