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Estonian World Review
May 28 2012
Chicago Summit: NATO Remains AWOL from Europe's East (1)
Arvamus 28 May 2012 EWR Online
With the salient exception of Georgia, NATO basically ignored its own
immediate eastern neighborhood at NATO's Chicago summit (May 20-21).
Europe's East - a `gray zone' of six countries bordering on NATO and
the EU - faces a deepening security vacuum and Russian re-expansion.
This region is the arena of protracted conflicts (Russia-Moldova,
Russia-Georgia on two fronts, Armenia-Azerbaijan), territorial
occupations, ethnic cleansing, massive Russian military bases
(prolonged in Ukraine and Armenia since 2010 for decades to come), and
failing tests of NATO's open-door and partnership policies.
NATO seems to treat Europe's East with benign neglect, which deepens
from one summit cycle to the next; NATO's policy from Lisbon to
Chicago has confirmed the pattern. NATO/US disengagement and Russian
sphere-of-influence rebuilding are concurrent processes, mutually
reinforcing in this region.
Benign neglect tends to grow deeper and even becomes institutionalized
with the passage of time. In this region, it takes the form of
conceding primary authority on peacekeeping and conflict-mediation to
Russia, which acts within institutional formats that constrain the
West and exclude NATO outright. Except for a fleeting moment in 2002,
NATO has recused itself from a peacekeeping role in its eastern
neighborhood.
At the Chicago summit, NATO again urged all parties to the protracted
conflicts to respect those same institutional formats (meaning: 5+2 in
Moldova, the Geneva format in the case of Georgia, the `Minsk Group'
in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict) despite their ineffectiveness.
This summit's communiqué called on `all parties to engage
constructively and with reinforced political will in peaceful conflict
resolution.' Repeating a phrase from earlier communiqués, it declared
that `the persistence of protracted conflicts in [the] South Caucasus
and Moldova continues to be a matter of great concern for the
Alliance.' But the concern seems to remain at the declaratory level
(Chicago Summit Declaration, May 20).
Overcommitted to failed expeditionary operations in distant theaters,
NATO has no security solution to offer in its eastern neighborhood;
and - as the Chicago summit confirmed - NATO lacks the collective
inclination to provide one. While some NATO partners become security
providers in the region, the Alliance itself has missed the chance to
become an effective security actor in Europe's East.
Again, with the singular exception of Georgia, others are scaling down
their erstwhile ambitions for closer cooperation with NATO. The
Ukrainian government has regressed from membership aspirant during
Viktor Yanukovych's first premiership (2002-2004) to staunchly
`non-bloc' under Yanukovych's presidency. At the Chicago summit,
Yanukovych limited his role to seeking business opportunities for
Ukraine in the context of NATO's withdrawal from Afghanistan. He
offered to lease Ukraine's Soviet-era, heavy-duty transport aircraft
for NATO's reverse transit, and to repair Soviet-made military
equipment in Ukraine for the Afghan army's use (UNIAN, May 22).
For its part, Azerbaijan joined the non-aligned movement in 2011 - a
move that precludes NATO membership aspirations, though still allowing
other forms of Azerbaijan-NATO cooperation. In the Karabakh conflict,
Russian-backed Armenia occupies territories of Western-oriented
Azerbaijan. Amid Western indifference to this situation, Azerbaijan
seeks political support among the non-aligned countries. Baku
continues to seek an upgraded individual partnership agreement with
NATO, but the Alliance procrastinates. Azerbaijan is a troop
contributor and a crucial way station for NATO forces operating in
Afghanistan. President Ilham Aliyev attended the Chicago summit in
that context. Armenian President Serzh Sarkisyan, on the other hand,
followed Russian President Vladimir Putin's example and declined to
attend the summit.
Azerbaijan obtained a degree of satisfaction when the Chicago summit's
communiqué endorsed Azerbaijan's `territorial integrity, independence,
and sovereignty' along with those of Georgia and Moldova (Chicago
Summit Declaration, May 20). This basically restates the formulation
from NATO's 2010 Lisbon summit communiqué; but the restatement was in
doubt until the last moment, as diplomats involved in the
anachronistic `Minsk process' sought to change the Lisbon formula to
Azerbaijan's detriment. Turkey defended Azerbaijan's interests in the
drafting process (Trend, May 21).
Presidents Dalia Grybauskaite of Lithuania and Traian Basescu of
Romania expressed concern over arms sales by certain Western European
countries to Russia. In their speeches at the Chicago summit,
Grybauskaite and Basescu noted that such arms sales can generate
security risks to NATO allies and partners. Basescu urged NATO to
introduce controls over arms sales by NATO member countries to
non-members (meaning essentially Russia). Such procedures should
involve advance notice to the Alliance and a certification that the
arms sales would not pose additional risks to allies and partners in
the region (BNS, Agerpres, May 21). France is going ahead with the
sale of Mistral-class amphibious assault warships to Russia. On the
eve of the Chicago summit, Italy delivered samples of Centauro tanks
and Iveco armored vehicles to Russia for testing and possible
procurement (RIA Novosti, Gazeta.ru, May 12; Izvestiya, May 16).
History's most successful alliance seems painfully irrelevant to the
security of its own eastern neighborhood, from Ukraine to the South
Caucasus. Yet, this neighborhood sits astride the Alliance's vital
energy supply routes to Europe and logistical corridors to Asia.
`Relevance' is a particularly sensitive word in the NATO lexicon. From
the 1990s onward, NATO leaders serially insisted that NATO remained
`relevant' and had to prove it. That proof, however, has yet to
materialize in Europe's East.
Source: Vladimir Socor, Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 9 Issue: 99
May 24, 2012
http://www.eesti.ca/?op=article&articleid=36478
May 28 2012
Chicago Summit: NATO Remains AWOL from Europe's East (1)
Arvamus 28 May 2012 EWR Online
With the salient exception of Georgia, NATO basically ignored its own
immediate eastern neighborhood at NATO's Chicago summit (May 20-21).
Europe's East - a `gray zone' of six countries bordering on NATO and
the EU - faces a deepening security vacuum and Russian re-expansion.
This region is the arena of protracted conflicts (Russia-Moldova,
Russia-Georgia on two fronts, Armenia-Azerbaijan), territorial
occupations, ethnic cleansing, massive Russian military bases
(prolonged in Ukraine and Armenia since 2010 for decades to come), and
failing tests of NATO's open-door and partnership policies.
NATO seems to treat Europe's East with benign neglect, which deepens
from one summit cycle to the next; NATO's policy from Lisbon to
Chicago has confirmed the pattern. NATO/US disengagement and Russian
sphere-of-influence rebuilding are concurrent processes, mutually
reinforcing in this region.
Benign neglect tends to grow deeper and even becomes institutionalized
with the passage of time. In this region, it takes the form of
conceding primary authority on peacekeeping and conflict-mediation to
Russia, which acts within institutional formats that constrain the
West and exclude NATO outright. Except for a fleeting moment in 2002,
NATO has recused itself from a peacekeeping role in its eastern
neighborhood.
At the Chicago summit, NATO again urged all parties to the protracted
conflicts to respect those same institutional formats (meaning: 5+2 in
Moldova, the Geneva format in the case of Georgia, the `Minsk Group'
in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict) despite their ineffectiveness.
This summit's communiqué called on `all parties to engage
constructively and with reinforced political will in peaceful conflict
resolution.' Repeating a phrase from earlier communiqués, it declared
that `the persistence of protracted conflicts in [the] South Caucasus
and Moldova continues to be a matter of great concern for the
Alliance.' But the concern seems to remain at the declaratory level
(Chicago Summit Declaration, May 20).
Overcommitted to failed expeditionary operations in distant theaters,
NATO has no security solution to offer in its eastern neighborhood;
and - as the Chicago summit confirmed - NATO lacks the collective
inclination to provide one. While some NATO partners become security
providers in the region, the Alliance itself has missed the chance to
become an effective security actor in Europe's East.
Again, with the singular exception of Georgia, others are scaling down
their erstwhile ambitions for closer cooperation with NATO. The
Ukrainian government has regressed from membership aspirant during
Viktor Yanukovych's first premiership (2002-2004) to staunchly
`non-bloc' under Yanukovych's presidency. At the Chicago summit,
Yanukovych limited his role to seeking business opportunities for
Ukraine in the context of NATO's withdrawal from Afghanistan. He
offered to lease Ukraine's Soviet-era, heavy-duty transport aircraft
for NATO's reverse transit, and to repair Soviet-made military
equipment in Ukraine for the Afghan army's use (UNIAN, May 22).
For its part, Azerbaijan joined the non-aligned movement in 2011 - a
move that precludes NATO membership aspirations, though still allowing
other forms of Azerbaijan-NATO cooperation. In the Karabakh conflict,
Russian-backed Armenia occupies territories of Western-oriented
Azerbaijan. Amid Western indifference to this situation, Azerbaijan
seeks political support among the non-aligned countries. Baku
continues to seek an upgraded individual partnership agreement with
NATO, but the Alliance procrastinates. Azerbaijan is a troop
contributor and a crucial way station for NATO forces operating in
Afghanistan. President Ilham Aliyev attended the Chicago summit in
that context. Armenian President Serzh Sarkisyan, on the other hand,
followed Russian President Vladimir Putin's example and declined to
attend the summit.
Azerbaijan obtained a degree of satisfaction when the Chicago summit's
communiqué endorsed Azerbaijan's `territorial integrity, independence,
and sovereignty' along with those of Georgia and Moldova (Chicago
Summit Declaration, May 20). This basically restates the formulation
from NATO's 2010 Lisbon summit communiqué; but the restatement was in
doubt until the last moment, as diplomats involved in the
anachronistic `Minsk process' sought to change the Lisbon formula to
Azerbaijan's detriment. Turkey defended Azerbaijan's interests in the
drafting process (Trend, May 21).
Presidents Dalia Grybauskaite of Lithuania and Traian Basescu of
Romania expressed concern over arms sales by certain Western European
countries to Russia. In their speeches at the Chicago summit,
Grybauskaite and Basescu noted that such arms sales can generate
security risks to NATO allies and partners. Basescu urged NATO to
introduce controls over arms sales by NATO member countries to
non-members (meaning essentially Russia). Such procedures should
involve advance notice to the Alliance and a certification that the
arms sales would not pose additional risks to allies and partners in
the region (BNS, Agerpres, May 21). France is going ahead with the
sale of Mistral-class amphibious assault warships to Russia. On the
eve of the Chicago summit, Italy delivered samples of Centauro tanks
and Iveco armored vehicles to Russia for testing and possible
procurement (RIA Novosti, Gazeta.ru, May 12; Izvestiya, May 16).
History's most successful alliance seems painfully irrelevant to the
security of its own eastern neighborhood, from Ukraine to the South
Caucasus. Yet, this neighborhood sits astride the Alliance's vital
energy supply routes to Europe and logistical corridors to Asia.
`Relevance' is a particularly sensitive word in the NATO lexicon. From
the 1990s onward, NATO leaders serially insisted that NATO remained
`relevant' and had to prove it. That proof, however, has yet to
materialize in Europe's East.
Source: Vladimir Socor, Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 9 Issue: 99
May 24, 2012
http://www.eesti.ca/?op=article&articleid=36478