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Ankara: The Us Presidential Election And Turkey

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  • Ankara: The Us Presidential Election And Turkey

    THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND TURKEY

    Today's Zaman
    Oct 31 2012
    Turkey

    by SUAT KINIKLIOÄ~^LU

    Despite brave attempts by the Turkish media to draw attention to the
    upcoming presidential election in the US, there is little interest
    in next week's election here.

    Part of it is due to the heavy domestic agenda, but part of it is
    due to the Turkish belief that nothing will change vis-a-vis Turkey
    regardless of who wins next Tuesday.

    Four years ago, this was not the case. Barack Obama stirred
    considerable attention throughout the globe with the expectation that
    he would correct the many excesses committed during the Bush era. Most
    of that excitement has subsided, and it is difficult to describe in a
    nutshell what the Obama presidency actually meant. True, he has had
    to grapple with one of the most challenging economic crises the US
    has seen. True, the US political system is bitterly divided and is
    no longer the land of compromise. Yet, there was something missing
    in the Obama presidency that few can describe.

    Regardless of who wins on Tuesday, the fact is that many Turks gauge US
    presidents on how they treat the Palestinian question and the larger
    Muslim world. This has much to do with the foreign policy emphasis of
    the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) on the Middle East and the
    Muslim world. In the old days, it would be the Kurdistan Workers' Party
    (PKK) issue or the Armenian issue that would shape Turkish perceptions
    of US presidents. While such issues still carry significance, they
    no longer occupy center stage in public perceptions. I underline
    public perceptions here. While there is some concern about the
    neo-conservatives around presidential candidate Mitt Romney, most Turks
    are not losing sleep over this and tend to believe in the educating
    nature of holding presidential responsibility. If Obama is re-elected,
    the current government in Turkey will be relieved, as it sees Prime
    Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's personal relationship with President
    Obama as a guarantee in maintaining good relations. As they say in
    Washington, the best lobbyist in Washington is the White House!

    There are also some problematic areas that pertain to the Syrian
    crisis as well as other issues in the Middle East. First of all, it
    is becoming increasingly clear in Ankara that US policy on Syria is
    unlikely to change even after the election. Turkey's current policy
    adjustments are a testament to that recognition. Second, there are
    tremendously complicated issues awaiting Turkey, such as relations
    with Iraq, the whole of the Kurdish question -- both domestic and
    regional -- and the continuing turmoil in Syria. Friction over how
    to deal with intelligence issues surrounding the PKK question have
    already surprised many in Washington. Iran will continue to loom as
    a challenge for as long as it continues with its nuclear program.

    Surprisingly little attention has been extended to the Armenian issue
    in this presidential race. A potential crisis awaiting Turkish-American
    relations will be the commemoration of the Armenian tragedy in
    2015. The new president will have to grapple with an unhappy Turkish
    government on this issue. Given the intensity of the race, I would not
    be surprised if Romney promises to recognize the "Armenian genocide"
    this week. Obama has already demonstrated how he will deal with the
    issue. Not much would change there, but the possibility of Obama being
    more forthcoming on this issue in 2015 cannot be totally excluded.

    If Romney wins, the tension between Turkey and Israel could take on
    a different nature. I predict that a Romney administration would urge
    Turkey to agree to an Israeli solution to the current impasse.

    Needless to say, this would strain bilateral relations.

    Next Tuesday, the American people will elect a new president. Whoever
    wins the race is likely to continue to the gradual withdrawal of the US
    from the Middle East. Apart from its unwavering support for Israel,
    the US will seek to manage its gradual shift of attention to the
    Pacific. What that means for Turkey and the region remains to be seen.


    From: Baghdasarian
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