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BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL DOWNGRADES AZERBAIJAN'S AND ARMENIA'S SECURITY/EXTERNAL THREATS PROFILE AND GIVES WRONG FORECAST ON GEORGIA
arminfo
Friday, November 2, 15:56
Business Monitor International (BMI, UK) is no longer confident that
"a military conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the breakaway
Nagorno-Karabakh region can be averted, as the number of violent
clashes continues to mount at a time of intensifying diplomatic
confrontation." Therefore BMI no longer considers the unresolved
standoff to be a frozen conflict and has downgraded both Azerbaijan's
and Armenia's "security/external threats" profile in our short-term
political risk ratings.
According to BMI's report, Armenia's economy is entering a less certain
environment and despite our near-term upward revision to real GDP
growth, the economy is beginning to face considerable headwinds over
a medium-term time horizon. Challenges are stemming from a potential
drying up of multilateral funding in the event of further escalation
in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, as well as the risk of a more
pronounced slowdown in economic growth in Russia, as commodity prices,
particularly of oil, remain highly exposed to global investor risk
aversion and falling demand in developed markets.
The BMI experts have raised their 2012 real GDP growth forecast
for Armenia to 4.3% from 2.1% previously, on account of signs of a
more robust household sector, as well as a slight increase to our
previous exports of goods and services growth projection. However, a
deteriorating global economic environment threatens to weigh heavily on
exports as well as fixed investment and household consumption levels.
It should be noted that the forecast on Georgia has proved to be
wrong. The BMI experts believed that the ruling United National
Movement party of President Mikhail Saakashvili would be the favorite
to win in October's parliamentary election and secure another
majority. "Although the new opposition movement Georgian Dream
remains a credible threat to the ruling party, we believe that the
appointment of the former interior minister as prime minister and
a shift in strategy in dealing with the opposition should improve
the government's chances of retaining control of the legislature,"
BMI's report says.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
arminfo
Friday, November 2, 15:56
Business Monitor International (BMI, UK) is no longer confident that
"a military conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the breakaway
Nagorno-Karabakh region can be averted, as the number of violent
clashes continues to mount at a time of intensifying diplomatic
confrontation." Therefore BMI no longer considers the unresolved
standoff to be a frozen conflict and has downgraded both Azerbaijan's
and Armenia's "security/external threats" profile in our short-term
political risk ratings.
According to BMI's report, Armenia's economy is entering a less certain
environment and despite our near-term upward revision to real GDP
growth, the economy is beginning to face considerable headwinds over
a medium-term time horizon. Challenges are stemming from a potential
drying up of multilateral funding in the event of further escalation
in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, as well as the risk of a more
pronounced slowdown in economic growth in Russia, as commodity prices,
particularly of oil, remain highly exposed to global investor risk
aversion and falling demand in developed markets.
The BMI experts have raised their 2012 real GDP growth forecast
for Armenia to 4.3% from 2.1% previously, on account of signs of a
more robust household sector, as well as a slight increase to our
previous exports of goods and services growth projection. However, a
deteriorating global economic environment threatens to weigh heavily on
exports as well as fixed investment and household consumption levels.
It should be noted that the forecast on Georgia has proved to be
wrong. The BMI experts believed that the ruling United National
Movement party of President Mikhail Saakashvili would be the favorite
to win in October's parliamentary election and secure another
majority. "Although the new opposition movement Georgian Dream
remains a credible threat to the ruling party, we believe that the
appointment of the former interior minister as prime minister and
a shift in strategy in dealing with the opposition should improve
the government's chances of retaining control of the legislature,"
BMI's report says.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress