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WHY ARMENIA REJECTS RUSSIAN INTEGRATION INITIATIVES
Vestnik Kavkaza
Nov 5 2012
Russia
Author: Yekaterina Tesemnikova, Moscow, and David Stepanyan, Yerevan,
exclusive to VK
Today, one of the main topics on the agenda of the Russian-Armenian
relations is the discussion about the possibility of joining the
Eurasian Union for Yerevan. And now the idea of the benefits of
the Eurasian integration project compared to the CIS, which was,
according to the characteristic of Vladimir Putin, the means of
civilized divorce, is increasingly voiced. According to director of
the Armenian branch of the CIS Institute Alexander Makarov, "when the
CIS was created, there was the need to address a number of issues -
on the one hand, the need to maintain the bonds that had already been
established, on the other hand - the ability to support the economies,
which were interdependent, and third - the desire to preserve a
certain civilization, a common space, which was created not only in the
Soviet period, but before". Speaking about the reasons why the CIS had
failed to become a successful integration project, Makarov said that
"this is a sharp decline in the level of the economy, the level of
GDP in each of the countries, the presence of internal instability
and external conflicts, and, in the case of Armenia, closed borders.
Accordingly, the integration project, which functioned in different
directions or at different vectors, was at the level of some
declarative statements for a long time. Nowadays the core elements are
those that are economic in nature and that can lead to real tangible
results, including from the point of view of economic growth and the
impact on the socio-economic situation in the country. Integration
process will go with great success in the presence of a specific core
filling, which can positively influence, in particular, the economic
cooperation and the level of economic development. If similar elements
of economic integration able to lead to the growth of macroeconomic
indicators which, accordingly, may later lead to a positive impact
on the overall economic situation in each country are found, the
economic component will be able to become the basis for further
political integration project".
It is the dominant economic component that makes experts talk
about the prospects of a Eurasian Union. However, the question of
participation of Armenia in it is still open. Yerevan watches the new
integration initiative of Russia with great care, which sometimes
causes confusion in Moscow. Thus, the Russian political analyst
Mikhail Leontyev said that Armenia had been created in its present
form only thanks to Russia and continued to exist due to it. "Total
dependence on Russian gas and Russian transfers", which has been
criticized by experts from the IMF, not to mention the power umbrella,
is a direct illustration to this", Leontiev said. According to him,
"Armenia undertook highly regarded efforts to liberalize the economy
and attract foreign investment. However, there has been no investment
boom, and it is not expected. Even the powerful diaspora around the
world, including in Europe and the U.S., not much helped to lift the
Armenian economy. It rather facilitated the exodus of Armenians from
the country. Against this background, it is strange to hear nonsense
from Armenia about the "European choice" and a stark warning of the
German ambassador about the threat to this choice in the case of
Armenia's participation in the Eurasian integration project. In fact,
Armenian opposition to reintegration is the best illustration to the
lameness of post-Soviet elites doomed to confront the real national
interests of their people. Armenia should be interested in this
process more than Russia, because an alternative for it is not the
"European choice" but the "Turkish choice".
However, it should be recognized that the possibility of a real
integration with Russia has always been imperative for Armenia.
Armenian society is sympathetic to the Russian-proposed integration
initiatives in the former Soviet space. A special role in this
is played by a deep and multilayered nature of Russian-Armenian
historical, civilizational and cultural ties. Even critics have
to admit that, according to opinion polls, the vast majority of the
population of Armenia is committed to the development of relations with
Russia and supports the integration trends. All this combined with
the historical memory of the Armenians gives hope that the society
in Armenia respectfully treats Russia's initiative to develop the
Eurasian cooperation not only in the economic sphere. The question
is the terms. In general, both Russia and Europe, and the United
States, and any other country in the world, always and everywhere,
above all, pursues its own interests. And that's OK. So before the
Armenians think about the integration, they need to think about their
own interests. But in order to do it seriously and on the basis of
pragmatism they should try to answer a simple question: who needs
whom more: Russia needs Armenia, or Armenia needs Russia?
In Armenia, the northern ally is accused of establishing closer ties
with Baku, neglecting allied relations with Armenia, arms supplies to
Azerbaijan, desire to make friends with Turkey through concessions,
which in turn will be made at the expense of Armenia. Yerevan believes
that Moscow does not appreciate the fact that Armenia has long been
its ally in the South Caucasus. The reluctance to compensate for
costs and losses incurred by Armenia refusing to go to the West in
favor of Russia is also not approved, as well as the unwillingness
to write off foreign debt, as it was done, for example, with respect
to Kyrgyzstan, and to reduce the price of gas for its most loyal ally.
In turn, Moscow accuses Armenia of its total dependence on Russian
transfers, and Mikhail Leontyev wonders what would happen to the
economy of Armenia, if the price of gas had been the same as the
price for Lithuania and Germany. Moscow reminds Yerevan of the
Russian security umbrella covering Armenia surrounded by Turkey and
Azerbaijan, and of the blockade, of the fact that without Russian
partnership the economic situation of the republic would have been
very disappointing. Finally, the Armenian leadership is accused of
unwillingness to join the most ambitious project of Vladimir Putin,
the Eurasian Union and the Customs Union.
Note that all this time Armenia has been bought Russian gas at a
reduced price; however, the republic paid for these prices by selling
national gas transmission system and the 5th block of Hrazdan thermal
power plant to the Russians at the same reduced price. A huge role in
bilateral economic relations is played by Russian loans and, transfer
payments by Armenian citizens living in Russia. By the way, Armenian
government now is said to ask Russia for a new, this time billion
loan. Finally, there is military cooperation, in which, above all,
Armenia is interested (for Armenia, this area is the most important
one in our relationship, given that Azerbaijan today is the undisputed
champion in the CIS for the purchase of weapons). Moscow has already
supplied to Yerevan latest S-300, replacing outdated S-125.
Meanwhile, Russian military bases remain in Armenia, and in case of
need this fact will significantly facilitate arms supplies.
As you can see, the evidence is in favor of the Eurasian integration
of Armenia. However, the vagueness of the position of the official
Yerevan concerning the idea of a Eurasian Union is reasonable. And
the reason is not the pressure of the West and not even the hope of
receiving 1.5 billion euros in Europe, allegedly promised in case
of irreversible movement of Armenia on the path of "strengthening
democracy." In fact, the government of Sargsyan expects from Moscow
guarantees of substantial financial, economic and political support
till the presidential elections, including gas prices acceptable for
Armenia. Former President Robert Kocharian enjoyed such Moscow's
support, no matter what the price for it was. Thus, it seems that
Yerevan will specify its position on the Eurasian Union only when it
receives an appropriate message from Moscow, which has not yet been
received. Probably Moscow, in turn, expects Yerevan to first declare
its desire to join the Eurasian Union. However, given that, without
getting anything in return, Armenia will hardly dare to go to the
break with the EU against the approaching completion of negotiations
on visa facilitation and free trade zone with the European Union,
Moscow is waiting in vain. And Yerevan, of course, can give up the
only real level of European integration in the case of Armenia and
other CIS countries, but only for the respective concessions by Moscow.
Persuading Armenia to participate in the Russian integration project is
certainly possible, but only by applying the so-called "soft power",
popularizing and economically justifying the benefits of carrying
out the idea of Eurasian Union.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/33329.html
Vestnik Kavkaza
Nov 5 2012
Russia
Author: Yekaterina Tesemnikova, Moscow, and David Stepanyan, Yerevan,
exclusive to VK
Today, one of the main topics on the agenda of the Russian-Armenian
relations is the discussion about the possibility of joining the
Eurasian Union for Yerevan. And now the idea of the benefits of
the Eurasian integration project compared to the CIS, which was,
according to the characteristic of Vladimir Putin, the means of
civilized divorce, is increasingly voiced. According to director of
the Armenian branch of the CIS Institute Alexander Makarov, "when the
CIS was created, there was the need to address a number of issues -
on the one hand, the need to maintain the bonds that had already been
established, on the other hand - the ability to support the economies,
which were interdependent, and third - the desire to preserve a
certain civilization, a common space, which was created not only in the
Soviet period, but before". Speaking about the reasons why the CIS had
failed to become a successful integration project, Makarov said that
"this is a sharp decline in the level of the economy, the level of
GDP in each of the countries, the presence of internal instability
and external conflicts, and, in the case of Armenia, closed borders.
Accordingly, the integration project, which functioned in different
directions or at different vectors, was at the level of some
declarative statements for a long time. Nowadays the core elements are
those that are economic in nature and that can lead to real tangible
results, including from the point of view of economic growth and the
impact on the socio-economic situation in the country. Integration
process will go with great success in the presence of a specific core
filling, which can positively influence, in particular, the economic
cooperation and the level of economic development. If similar elements
of economic integration able to lead to the growth of macroeconomic
indicators which, accordingly, may later lead to a positive impact
on the overall economic situation in each country are found, the
economic component will be able to become the basis for further
political integration project".
It is the dominant economic component that makes experts talk
about the prospects of a Eurasian Union. However, the question of
participation of Armenia in it is still open. Yerevan watches the new
integration initiative of Russia with great care, which sometimes
causes confusion in Moscow. Thus, the Russian political analyst
Mikhail Leontyev said that Armenia had been created in its present
form only thanks to Russia and continued to exist due to it. "Total
dependence on Russian gas and Russian transfers", which has been
criticized by experts from the IMF, not to mention the power umbrella,
is a direct illustration to this", Leontiev said. According to him,
"Armenia undertook highly regarded efforts to liberalize the economy
and attract foreign investment. However, there has been no investment
boom, and it is not expected. Even the powerful diaspora around the
world, including in Europe and the U.S., not much helped to lift the
Armenian economy. It rather facilitated the exodus of Armenians from
the country. Against this background, it is strange to hear nonsense
from Armenia about the "European choice" and a stark warning of the
German ambassador about the threat to this choice in the case of
Armenia's participation in the Eurasian integration project. In fact,
Armenian opposition to reintegration is the best illustration to the
lameness of post-Soviet elites doomed to confront the real national
interests of their people. Armenia should be interested in this
process more than Russia, because an alternative for it is not the
"European choice" but the "Turkish choice".
However, it should be recognized that the possibility of a real
integration with Russia has always been imperative for Armenia.
Armenian society is sympathetic to the Russian-proposed integration
initiatives in the former Soviet space. A special role in this
is played by a deep and multilayered nature of Russian-Armenian
historical, civilizational and cultural ties. Even critics have
to admit that, according to opinion polls, the vast majority of the
population of Armenia is committed to the development of relations with
Russia and supports the integration trends. All this combined with
the historical memory of the Armenians gives hope that the society
in Armenia respectfully treats Russia's initiative to develop the
Eurasian cooperation not only in the economic sphere. The question
is the terms. In general, both Russia and Europe, and the United
States, and any other country in the world, always and everywhere,
above all, pursues its own interests. And that's OK. So before the
Armenians think about the integration, they need to think about their
own interests. But in order to do it seriously and on the basis of
pragmatism they should try to answer a simple question: who needs
whom more: Russia needs Armenia, or Armenia needs Russia?
In Armenia, the northern ally is accused of establishing closer ties
with Baku, neglecting allied relations with Armenia, arms supplies to
Azerbaijan, desire to make friends with Turkey through concessions,
which in turn will be made at the expense of Armenia. Yerevan believes
that Moscow does not appreciate the fact that Armenia has long been
its ally in the South Caucasus. The reluctance to compensate for
costs and losses incurred by Armenia refusing to go to the West in
favor of Russia is also not approved, as well as the unwillingness
to write off foreign debt, as it was done, for example, with respect
to Kyrgyzstan, and to reduce the price of gas for its most loyal ally.
In turn, Moscow accuses Armenia of its total dependence on Russian
transfers, and Mikhail Leontyev wonders what would happen to the
economy of Armenia, if the price of gas had been the same as the
price for Lithuania and Germany. Moscow reminds Yerevan of the
Russian security umbrella covering Armenia surrounded by Turkey and
Azerbaijan, and of the blockade, of the fact that without Russian
partnership the economic situation of the republic would have been
very disappointing. Finally, the Armenian leadership is accused of
unwillingness to join the most ambitious project of Vladimir Putin,
the Eurasian Union and the Customs Union.
Note that all this time Armenia has been bought Russian gas at a
reduced price; however, the republic paid for these prices by selling
national gas transmission system and the 5th block of Hrazdan thermal
power plant to the Russians at the same reduced price. A huge role in
bilateral economic relations is played by Russian loans and, transfer
payments by Armenian citizens living in Russia. By the way, Armenian
government now is said to ask Russia for a new, this time billion
loan. Finally, there is military cooperation, in which, above all,
Armenia is interested (for Armenia, this area is the most important
one in our relationship, given that Azerbaijan today is the undisputed
champion in the CIS for the purchase of weapons). Moscow has already
supplied to Yerevan latest S-300, replacing outdated S-125.
Meanwhile, Russian military bases remain in Armenia, and in case of
need this fact will significantly facilitate arms supplies.
As you can see, the evidence is in favor of the Eurasian integration
of Armenia. However, the vagueness of the position of the official
Yerevan concerning the idea of a Eurasian Union is reasonable. And
the reason is not the pressure of the West and not even the hope of
receiving 1.5 billion euros in Europe, allegedly promised in case
of irreversible movement of Armenia on the path of "strengthening
democracy." In fact, the government of Sargsyan expects from Moscow
guarantees of substantial financial, economic and political support
till the presidential elections, including gas prices acceptable for
Armenia. Former President Robert Kocharian enjoyed such Moscow's
support, no matter what the price for it was. Thus, it seems that
Yerevan will specify its position on the Eurasian Union only when it
receives an appropriate message from Moscow, which has not yet been
received. Probably Moscow, in turn, expects Yerevan to first declare
its desire to join the Eurasian Union. However, given that, without
getting anything in return, Armenia will hardly dare to go to the
break with the EU against the approaching completion of negotiations
on visa facilitation and free trade zone with the European Union,
Moscow is waiting in vain. And Yerevan, of course, can give up the
only real level of European integration in the case of Armenia and
other CIS countries, but only for the respective concessions by Moscow.
Persuading Armenia to participate in the Russian integration project is
certainly possible, but only by applying the so-called "soft power",
popularizing and economically justifying the benefits of carrying
out the idea of Eurasian Union.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/33329.html