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GEVORG POGHOSYAN:AS A RULE, THE REAL FIGHT IN THE POLITICAL FIELD OF ARMENIA STARTS AFTER THE FOREIGN FORCES' APPROVAL
by Nana Martirosyan
arminfo
Tuesday, November 6, 19:31
ArmInfo's Interview with Gevorg Poghosyan, Director of the Philosophy,
Sociology and Law Institute of the National Academy of Sciences
of Armenia
Mr.Poghosyan, what situation will Armenia face during the presidential
elections given the public mood in the country? Will the Prosperous
Armenia Party (PAP) advance the nominee of its leader Gagik Tsarukyan
or ex-foreign minister Vartan Oskanian?
The presidential election, like the parliamentary one, is first of
all a fight of resources. From this point of view, the nomination of
a PAP candidate is possible, as the PAP has such resources, as funds,
offices in the regions, and people. A question arises then - whether
Gagik Tsarukyan, the leader and financial sponsor of the party,
is ready to give all these resources to the second person of the
party Vartan Oskanian if the opponent, i.e. the incumbent President
of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan is strong and Oskanian's chances are not
so big as Tsarukyan's chances. I think Oskanian's willingness to run
for president is just an element of political technologies, as it is
not reasonable to nominate his candidacy from the PAP.
What do you think the second president of Armenia Robert Kocharyan
will do during the elections given that he is considered to be the
founder of the Prosperous Armenia Party?
Only shallow persons can participate in elections without a serious
party's support. They do that just to show themselves off. Kocharyan is
a serious politician, who will not take part in the elections without
the support of Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), which may nominate PAP
Leader Gagik Tsarukyan's candidacy, or ARF Dashnaktsutyun. The second
president has apparently taken a back seat for some time, and the
supposed fight among the three presidents will not take place. The
fight could take place only in case of force-majeure, particularly,
in case of aggravation of the confrontation in the Karabakh conflict
zone or a domestic political crisis, when the second and the first
presidents feel that their time has come and the incumbent president
has no constitutional right to take part in the elections. One should
not expect a second round in the presidential elections 2013, as at
the moment Serzh Sargsyan's victory during the first round is quite
predictable.
Nevertheless, may the domestic political situation in the country
become tense after the elections in 2013?
Gagik Tsarukyan's nomination for presidential elections 2013 will
end in post-election tensions to be provoked by confrontation with
President Serzh Sargsyan. As regards the Armenian National Congress,
it is no longer influential.
Will the opposition forces be able to consolidate around Gagik
Tsarukyan?
There will be a single opposition candidate, first of all, because
each opposition leader has his personal ambitions and also because
the regime is taking active measures to prevent this possibility.
Will the support of the foreign force centers change the current
situation?
In such small countries as Armenia the candidates running in
elections give high priority to the support of foreign forces rather
than voters. If the USA, Russia and Europe equally sympathize the
candidates, the crucial choice is made by the voters, and the real
fight in the political field starts after they gain approval from
the foreign forces. But if one of these foreign forces is prejudiced
against a candidate, the latter comes across real problems.
The Armenian Foreign Ministry's silence about Ramil Safarov's
extradition and pardoning is suspicious...
After the stormy reaction of the Armenian Diaspora and the world
community, the silence of Armenian Foreign Ministry is strange. The
Ministry simply missed Safarov's extradition and could not present
evidence of the attempts to prevent that. And even after Safarov's
extradition, nobody in the Armenian Foreign Ministry was punished. In
fact, the suspension of relations with Hungary has led to nothing, as
after Ramil Safarov's extradition, Hungary probably gained a big sum
of money. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev heroized the criminal
and in such a way raised his rating in the country. As for Armenia, it
got nothing. It has again remained in the image of permanent victim,
which nobody likes. For this reason, we should immediately come out
of such a situation.
How do you assess the meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign
ministers in Paris?
I did not expect continuation of the negotiating process on Karabakh
settlement, as Armenia had to express a harsh position and put forward
its own conditions. Europe, the USA and Russia have been using double
standards over their history.
by Nana Martirosyan
arminfo
Tuesday, November 6, 19:31
ArmInfo's Interview with Gevorg Poghosyan, Director of the Philosophy,
Sociology and Law Institute of the National Academy of Sciences
of Armenia
Mr.Poghosyan, what situation will Armenia face during the presidential
elections given the public mood in the country? Will the Prosperous
Armenia Party (PAP) advance the nominee of its leader Gagik Tsarukyan
or ex-foreign minister Vartan Oskanian?
The presidential election, like the parliamentary one, is first of
all a fight of resources. From this point of view, the nomination of
a PAP candidate is possible, as the PAP has such resources, as funds,
offices in the regions, and people. A question arises then - whether
Gagik Tsarukyan, the leader and financial sponsor of the party,
is ready to give all these resources to the second person of the
party Vartan Oskanian if the opponent, i.e. the incumbent President
of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan is strong and Oskanian's chances are not
so big as Tsarukyan's chances. I think Oskanian's willingness to run
for president is just an element of political technologies, as it is
not reasonable to nominate his candidacy from the PAP.
What do you think the second president of Armenia Robert Kocharyan
will do during the elections given that he is considered to be the
founder of the Prosperous Armenia Party?
Only shallow persons can participate in elections without a serious
party's support. They do that just to show themselves off. Kocharyan is
a serious politician, who will not take part in the elections without
the support of Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), which may nominate PAP
Leader Gagik Tsarukyan's candidacy, or ARF Dashnaktsutyun. The second
president has apparently taken a back seat for some time, and the
supposed fight among the three presidents will not take place. The
fight could take place only in case of force-majeure, particularly,
in case of aggravation of the confrontation in the Karabakh conflict
zone or a domestic political crisis, when the second and the first
presidents feel that their time has come and the incumbent president
has no constitutional right to take part in the elections. One should
not expect a second round in the presidential elections 2013, as at
the moment Serzh Sargsyan's victory during the first round is quite
predictable.
Nevertheless, may the domestic political situation in the country
become tense after the elections in 2013?
Gagik Tsarukyan's nomination for presidential elections 2013 will
end in post-election tensions to be provoked by confrontation with
President Serzh Sargsyan. As regards the Armenian National Congress,
it is no longer influential.
Will the opposition forces be able to consolidate around Gagik
Tsarukyan?
There will be a single opposition candidate, first of all, because
each opposition leader has his personal ambitions and also because
the regime is taking active measures to prevent this possibility.
Will the support of the foreign force centers change the current
situation?
In such small countries as Armenia the candidates running in
elections give high priority to the support of foreign forces rather
than voters. If the USA, Russia and Europe equally sympathize the
candidates, the crucial choice is made by the voters, and the real
fight in the political field starts after they gain approval from
the foreign forces. But if one of these foreign forces is prejudiced
against a candidate, the latter comes across real problems.
The Armenian Foreign Ministry's silence about Ramil Safarov's
extradition and pardoning is suspicious...
After the stormy reaction of the Armenian Diaspora and the world
community, the silence of Armenian Foreign Ministry is strange. The
Ministry simply missed Safarov's extradition and could not present
evidence of the attempts to prevent that. And even after Safarov's
extradition, nobody in the Armenian Foreign Ministry was punished. In
fact, the suspension of relations with Hungary has led to nothing, as
after Ramil Safarov's extradition, Hungary probably gained a big sum
of money. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev heroized the criminal
and in such a way raised his rating in the country. As for Armenia, it
got nothing. It has again remained in the image of permanent victim,
which nobody likes. For this reason, we should immediately come out
of such a situation.
How do you assess the meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign
ministers in Paris?
I did not expect continuation of the negotiating process on Karabakh
settlement, as Armenia had to express a harsh position and put forward
its own conditions. Europe, the USA and Russia have been using double
standards over their history.