Tweet
PROSPEROUS ARMENIA'S MESSAGE TO SERZH SARGSYAN ENDS THE INTRIGUE BY TATEVIK SHAHUNYAN
arminfo
Wednesday, November 7, 18:30
Armenia's political field is gradually crystallizing in the face of
the Feb 2013 presidential elections. Almost all of the country's
major parties have already specified their stands. The leader
of Heritage party Raffi Hovhannisian has voiced his presidential
ambitions officially, while the Republicans have made it plain that
their leader Serzh Sargsyan is the only possible president. The
coordinator of the oppositional Armenian National Congress (ANC)
Levon Zurabyan has said that their only candidate is their leader,
the first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan - even though the
latter is "mysteriously" silent about his plans. ARFD has hinted that
it will not have its own candidate, while Orinats Yerkir is stably
open about its support for Serzh Sargsyan.
The only intrigue was the plans of Prosperous Armenia (PA). Mass
media and experts were racking their brains really hard of late in an
attempt to guess what the party was about: will it run for presidency?
if yes, who will be its candidate - its leader Gagik Tsarukyan,
the "political martyr" Vartan Oskanian or the second president of
Armenia Robert Kocharyan? The Republicans hoped for a third scenario:
the support for their candidate Serzh Sargsyan.
The party's announcement on Tuesday evening made lots of things clear.
What Prosperous Armenia announced was a plan to consolidate the
country's political forces - but not around a joint presidential
candidate (as was expected by many) but around the idea of reforms
envisaging a switch to a 100% proportional electoral system and,
consequently, to a parliamentary regime. This idea is not new -
Prosperous Armenia has picked it up from ARFD, who is there with it
before almost every election. The intrigue is if it has been "picked
up" by Prosperous Armenia or "thrown in" to it by someone else.
Prosperous Armenia is not against this idea but has avoided supporting
it officially so far. Tomorrow's statement was a replica of what ARFD
member Armen Rustamyan has kept telling journalists over the past few
months. So, what has changed in the party's views. It seems nothing
at all. Simply Prosperous Armenia has seen - or has been shown -
how to act before the elections.
It goes without saying that task N1 for Prosperous Armenia is to
consolidate the opposition around itself. Only then will its candidate
have any chances to rival with RPA's candidate Serzh Sargsyan. What
could attract potential partners was certainly not the candidacy
of its leader Gagik Tsarukyan and by no means the one of Robert
Kocharyan. Each of them has lots of candidates of its own. So,
Prosperous Armenia had to offer something else - an idea... Many
experts are inclined to believe that the true authors of the idea to
transit to a parliamentary regime are the de facto rather than the
de jure leaders of Prosperous Armenia. So, no surprise that it was
first mentioned by ARFD. Some experts see here the style of Robert
Kocharyan, who, according to them, is still politically ambitious
though quite unseen for the moment.
The "idea" to consolidate Armenia's political field around an idea
rather than a personality is good as it is. The problem is to find an
effective and generally acceptable agenda. Here Prosperous Armenia has
proved to be quite practical: the idea to transfer Armenia to a 100%
proportional electoral system and a parliamentary regime is supported
by many forces - even by political and ideological opponents, like
Armenian National Congress and Heritage. Once they even held political
consultations on this matter. At that time Prosperous Armenia was in
the coalition government and kept aloof.
And so, the agenda offered by PA may well prove attractive for the
opposition leaders, like ARFD, Heritage and ANC. If the first round
of the "political consultations" proves a success, Prosperous Armenia
will proceed to plan B - consolidation of the country's political
field around its presidential candidate. To make it true, the party's
political technologists will need to be really shrewd and resourceful
- for, according to experts, the key goal of plan B is consolidation
around Robert Kocharyan. But the point is that the second president
will agree to try his fate only if the first round goes off well,
that is, if all the forces involved join in. This is a hard job,
so, Prosperous Armenia has an alternative - if the talks are less
successful, its candidate will be Gagik Tsarukyan.
But what actually matters here is that Prosperous Armenia's statement
has put an end to the key internal political intrigue of today. The
party has made it clear that it will not ally with the Republican
Party. This can be seen from the party's choice of "idea": RPA and
its satellite Orinats Yerkir were the only forces that opposed the
concept of a parliamentary regime in Armenia. So, this is a clear
message that Prosperous Armenia is no longer with the Republicans
and is not going to support their candidate Serzh Sargsyan.
P.S. But, as you may know, political realities in Armenia change
quickly, and the changes are seldom logical. No longer than a year
ago, in Feb 2011, Prosperous Armenia was on the other side and was
going to back up the current President, jointly with the Republicans
and Orinats Yerkir.
From: A. Papazian
arminfo
Wednesday, November 7, 18:30
Armenia's political field is gradually crystallizing in the face of
the Feb 2013 presidential elections. Almost all of the country's
major parties have already specified their stands. The leader
of Heritage party Raffi Hovhannisian has voiced his presidential
ambitions officially, while the Republicans have made it plain that
their leader Serzh Sargsyan is the only possible president. The
coordinator of the oppositional Armenian National Congress (ANC)
Levon Zurabyan has said that their only candidate is their leader,
the first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan - even though the
latter is "mysteriously" silent about his plans. ARFD has hinted that
it will not have its own candidate, while Orinats Yerkir is stably
open about its support for Serzh Sargsyan.
The only intrigue was the plans of Prosperous Armenia (PA). Mass
media and experts were racking their brains really hard of late in an
attempt to guess what the party was about: will it run for presidency?
if yes, who will be its candidate - its leader Gagik Tsarukyan,
the "political martyr" Vartan Oskanian or the second president of
Armenia Robert Kocharyan? The Republicans hoped for a third scenario:
the support for their candidate Serzh Sargsyan.
The party's announcement on Tuesday evening made lots of things clear.
What Prosperous Armenia announced was a plan to consolidate the
country's political forces - but not around a joint presidential
candidate (as was expected by many) but around the idea of reforms
envisaging a switch to a 100% proportional electoral system and,
consequently, to a parliamentary regime. This idea is not new -
Prosperous Armenia has picked it up from ARFD, who is there with it
before almost every election. The intrigue is if it has been "picked
up" by Prosperous Armenia or "thrown in" to it by someone else.
Prosperous Armenia is not against this idea but has avoided supporting
it officially so far. Tomorrow's statement was a replica of what ARFD
member Armen Rustamyan has kept telling journalists over the past few
months. So, what has changed in the party's views. It seems nothing
at all. Simply Prosperous Armenia has seen - or has been shown -
how to act before the elections.
It goes without saying that task N1 for Prosperous Armenia is to
consolidate the opposition around itself. Only then will its candidate
have any chances to rival with RPA's candidate Serzh Sargsyan. What
could attract potential partners was certainly not the candidacy
of its leader Gagik Tsarukyan and by no means the one of Robert
Kocharyan. Each of them has lots of candidates of its own. So,
Prosperous Armenia had to offer something else - an idea... Many
experts are inclined to believe that the true authors of the idea to
transit to a parliamentary regime are the de facto rather than the
de jure leaders of Prosperous Armenia. So, no surprise that it was
first mentioned by ARFD. Some experts see here the style of Robert
Kocharyan, who, according to them, is still politically ambitious
though quite unseen for the moment.
The "idea" to consolidate Armenia's political field around an idea
rather than a personality is good as it is. The problem is to find an
effective and generally acceptable agenda. Here Prosperous Armenia has
proved to be quite practical: the idea to transfer Armenia to a 100%
proportional electoral system and a parliamentary regime is supported
by many forces - even by political and ideological opponents, like
Armenian National Congress and Heritage. Once they even held political
consultations on this matter. At that time Prosperous Armenia was in
the coalition government and kept aloof.
And so, the agenda offered by PA may well prove attractive for the
opposition leaders, like ARFD, Heritage and ANC. If the first round
of the "political consultations" proves a success, Prosperous Armenia
will proceed to plan B - consolidation of the country's political
field around its presidential candidate. To make it true, the party's
political technologists will need to be really shrewd and resourceful
- for, according to experts, the key goal of plan B is consolidation
around Robert Kocharyan. But the point is that the second president
will agree to try his fate only if the first round goes off well,
that is, if all the forces involved join in. This is a hard job,
so, Prosperous Armenia has an alternative - if the talks are less
successful, its candidate will be Gagik Tsarukyan.
But what actually matters here is that Prosperous Armenia's statement
has put an end to the key internal political intrigue of today. The
party has made it clear that it will not ally with the Republican
Party. This can be seen from the party's choice of "idea": RPA and
its satellite Orinats Yerkir were the only forces that opposed the
concept of a parliamentary regime in Armenia. So, this is a clear
message that Prosperous Armenia is no longer with the Republicans
and is not going to support their candidate Serzh Sargsyan.
P.S. But, as you may know, political realities in Armenia change
quickly, and the changes are seldom logical. No longer than a year
ago, in Feb 2011, Prosperous Armenia was on the other side and was
going to back up the current President, jointly with the Republicans
and Orinats Yerkir.
From: A. Papazian