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A LEADERSHIP OPPORTUNITY
Huffington Post
Nov 9 2012
Nancy E. Soderberg, Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
Recent unrest in the Middle East highlights the importance of our
strategic relationships in the region. A steadfast ally of the United
States is Azerbaijan, and the United States must redouble its efforts
to promote peace in this critical but unstable South Caucasus region.
Bordered by both Iran and Russia, Azerbaijan has offered close
logistical cooperation to our military commanders in Afghanistan. For
instance, over-flight clearance from the Azerbaijan government alone
reduces our Air Mobility Command medical evacuation flight times
by nearly two hours, saving lives. Of course, this doesn't endear
Azerbaijan to its neighbor Iran, nor does its reliable support
for Israel. Peace in this region is essential for regional energy
security, especially for Europe. Azerbaijan itself provides about
a million barrels of oil a day to the world market, including more
than 40 percent of Israel's oil.
But several factors threaten stability. Since the collapse of the
Soviet Union, Azerbaijan has been locked in a bitter dispute with
neighboring Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory. In the
1992-1994 conflict, ethnic Armenian forces took control of the area,
along with considerable Azeri territory before a shaky peace took
effect in 1994. Azerbaijan insists that the region is part of its
territory, a position shared by the United Nations; Armenia argues
that the Armenian majority living in Nagorno-Karabakh has the right
to self-determination and independence.
Peace talks remain deadlocked and the two sides are in the midst of a
major arms race, with clashes along the front lines having killed over
3,000 since the 1994 ceasefire. Threats by Azerbaijan to use military
force against Armenia's occupying forces endanger the stability of the
entire South Caucasus region. The longer this conflict drags on, the
greater the insecurity of the South Caucasus region and the greater
the chance of violence erupting and dragging in other players like
Russia and Iran.
A tragic consequence of the failure to reach peace has been the
displacement of more than 1.5 million Azeris and Armenians since the
conflict erupted. To date, internally displaced peoples account for
seven percent of the population of Azerbaijan -- one of the highest
rates in the world. Moreover, according to the International Crisis
Group, there are 128,000 IDPs and permanent residents living in close
proximity to the 180km-long line of contact established by the 1994
ceasefire. They live on the edge of peril with gunfire, contaminated
water and landmines surrounding them.
Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan recently boiled over when
Azerbaijan released a recently extradited army officer Ramil Safarov
who had served eight years in a Hungarian prison for the brutal murder
of an Armenian. The crime was inexcusable to be sure, and there has
been widespread criticism of Azerbaijan's decision to release Safarov
after his return to Baku. But rather than letting the Safarov affair
further derail the peace process, the international community must
use the crisis to renew its commitment to the peace process.
For its part the United States, as a co-chair with Russia and France
of the Minsk Group, must lead in the search for peace. Russia is
hardly objective as it views Azerbaijan as a competitor to Russia's
state-controlled oil and gas industry.
In my own experience working for President Clinton on the Irish
peace accords, we saw leaders in both countries overcome political
pressure from their national populations to work together to forge
a compromise. The South Caucuses region deserves the same.
The northern Irish political leader Gerry Adams once said, "Making
peace, I have found, is much harder than making war." No doubt this
maxim holds true for the decades old and seemingly intractable dispute
between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
It is time to put aside the mentality on both sides that a peace deal
equates surrender and restart the peace process. Previous efforts came
close to a deal -- with Basic Principles on international security
guarantees including peacekeepers; return of occupied Azerbaijani
territories; a land corridor between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh;
the right to return for all displaced people; an interim status for
Nagorno-Karabakh; and determination of final status by a legally
binding expression of will. According to the International Crisis
Group, "President Aliyev publicly stated that he largely accepted
the basic principles... in February 2010, while President Sargsyan
remained noncommittal."
Getting back to the peace table is difficult and both sides must do
more to prepare their public for progress and renew the search for
peace. But it will require strong U.S. leadership for success. In
this time of uncertainty and unrest, stability in the South Caucuses
is vital to American security.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/amb-nancy-e-soderberg/a-leadership-opportunity_b_2040975.html
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Huffington Post
Nov 9 2012
Nancy E. Soderberg, Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
Recent unrest in the Middle East highlights the importance of our
strategic relationships in the region. A steadfast ally of the United
States is Azerbaijan, and the United States must redouble its efforts
to promote peace in this critical but unstable South Caucasus region.
Bordered by both Iran and Russia, Azerbaijan has offered close
logistical cooperation to our military commanders in Afghanistan. For
instance, over-flight clearance from the Azerbaijan government alone
reduces our Air Mobility Command medical evacuation flight times
by nearly two hours, saving lives. Of course, this doesn't endear
Azerbaijan to its neighbor Iran, nor does its reliable support
for Israel. Peace in this region is essential for regional energy
security, especially for Europe. Azerbaijan itself provides about
a million barrels of oil a day to the world market, including more
than 40 percent of Israel's oil.
But several factors threaten stability. Since the collapse of the
Soviet Union, Azerbaijan has been locked in a bitter dispute with
neighboring Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory. In the
1992-1994 conflict, ethnic Armenian forces took control of the area,
along with considerable Azeri territory before a shaky peace took
effect in 1994. Azerbaijan insists that the region is part of its
territory, a position shared by the United Nations; Armenia argues
that the Armenian majority living in Nagorno-Karabakh has the right
to self-determination and independence.
Peace talks remain deadlocked and the two sides are in the midst of a
major arms race, with clashes along the front lines having killed over
3,000 since the 1994 ceasefire. Threats by Azerbaijan to use military
force against Armenia's occupying forces endanger the stability of the
entire South Caucasus region. The longer this conflict drags on, the
greater the insecurity of the South Caucasus region and the greater
the chance of violence erupting and dragging in other players like
Russia and Iran.
A tragic consequence of the failure to reach peace has been the
displacement of more than 1.5 million Azeris and Armenians since the
conflict erupted. To date, internally displaced peoples account for
seven percent of the population of Azerbaijan -- one of the highest
rates in the world. Moreover, according to the International Crisis
Group, there are 128,000 IDPs and permanent residents living in close
proximity to the 180km-long line of contact established by the 1994
ceasefire. They live on the edge of peril with gunfire, contaminated
water and landmines surrounding them.
Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan recently boiled over when
Azerbaijan released a recently extradited army officer Ramil Safarov
who had served eight years in a Hungarian prison for the brutal murder
of an Armenian. The crime was inexcusable to be sure, and there has
been widespread criticism of Azerbaijan's decision to release Safarov
after his return to Baku. But rather than letting the Safarov affair
further derail the peace process, the international community must
use the crisis to renew its commitment to the peace process.
For its part the United States, as a co-chair with Russia and France
of the Minsk Group, must lead in the search for peace. Russia is
hardly objective as it views Azerbaijan as a competitor to Russia's
state-controlled oil and gas industry.
In my own experience working for President Clinton on the Irish
peace accords, we saw leaders in both countries overcome political
pressure from their national populations to work together to forge
a compromise. The South Caucuses region deserves the same.
The northern Irish political leader Gerry Adams once said, "Making
peace, I have found, is much harder than making war." No doubt this
maxim holds true for the decades old and seemingly intractable dispute
between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
It is time to put aside the mentality on both sides that a peace deal
equates surrender and restart the peace process. Previous efforts came
close to a deal -- with Basic Principles on international security
guarantees including peacekeepers; return of occupied Azerbaijani
territories; a land corridor between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh;
the right to return for all displaced people; an interim status for
Nagorno-Karabakh; and determination of final status by a legally
binding expression of will. According to the International Crisis
Group, "President Aliyev publicly stated that he largely accepted
the basic principles... in February 2010, while President Sargsyan
remained noncommittal."
Getting back to the peace table is difficult and both sides must do
more to prepare their public for progress and renew the search for
peace. But it will require strong U.S. leadership for success. In
this time of uncertainty and unrest, stability in the South Caucuses
is vital to American security.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/amb-nancy-e-soderberg/a-leadership-opportunity_b_2040975.html
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress