Tweet
GEORGE TARKHAN-MOURAVI: LAUNCH OF ABKHAZIAN RAILWAY MEETS INTERESTS OF ARMENIA AND RUSSIA, NOT GEORGIA OR ABKHAZIA
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Wednesday, November 14, 17:40
ArmInfo's interview with Director of the Institute for Policy Studies
(Georgia) George Tarkhan-Mouravi
Mr. Tarkhan-Mouravi, has the change of regime in Georgia brought any
new priorities in the geo-political situation in the South Caucasus?
Yes, it has in some way. But the fact is that Mikhail Saakashvili
was a better option for Russia as he fit better into its national and
geo-political priorities. What the Russians needed was an enemy and a
scapegoat, now they are waiting to see how the new regime will behave.
I see certain contradictions between the political interests of Georgia
and Russia: Georgia wants to be with the West, Russia does not want
this, just like Armenia; Russia has recognized the independence of
the territories Georgia regards as its own. These contradictions will
hardly be solved shortly, so, one should not expect serious long-term
improvement in Georgian-Russian relations. If anybody in Armenia or
elsewhere still hope otherwise, they should stop doing it.
The change of regime has made a new Georgian-Russian conflict less
possible, but it is hard to say what will happen after the Olympic
Games in Sochi. The victory of consolidated opposition in Georgia
may inspire oppositionists in Armenia, Azerbaijan or somewhere else
and may lead to certain instability in region.
Can the restart of the Abkhazian roads become a bridge for Russia
and Georgia to improve their relations?
I don't think so. If we look at the situation from the outside, we see
that the launch of the Abkhazian sector of the railway certainly meets
the interests of Armenia and Russia, but not Georgia or Abkhazia,
strange though it may appear. It does not stem from Abkhazia's
interests, because this formation does not want to depend on Russia
too much. However, pressure will be exerted on Abkhaz people, and
probably they will have to yield. But Russia will be unable to press
Georgia to the same extent. He said that this idea was expressed only
by Georgian Minister for Reintegration Paata Zakareishvili, whom it
does not concern at all. As for Bidzina Ivanishvili, in his election
campaign he expressed a lot of ideas he has already managed to give up
or even to express the opposite opinion. There are many such examples.
Then what sense does it make for Georgia to keep its borders closed?
No sense. Moreover, these borders should be open as much as possible
in order to establish mutual relations between
Abkhaz and Georgian peoples at the mundane level at least. However,
it would be unreasonable for Tbilisi to strengthen Russia's presence
in the region amid the unresolved strategic discrepancies with Georgia.
What can Moscow promise to Tbilisi in exchange for unblocking the
borders?
Moscow may promise nothing of what it really can promise and carry out.
What are Turkey's interests in this geo-political scenario?
The restart of the Abkhazian railway will be both bad and good news
for Turkey. The bad news, according to the Georgian expert, is that
this will strengthen Armenia, first of all, in military terms, the good
news is that this may increase the Turkish exports to Russia. But there
are certain but's: first, there is no railway from Turkey to Russia;
second, there is the Black Sea between the countries; and, third, even
if restarted, the railway will have capacity for Armenian cargoes only.
Georgia is a transit center for both Armenia and Azerbaijan and is
vital for the two countries. Keeping this in mind, what steps can
the new Georgian regime take with respect to Yerevan and Baku?
When crossing the Armenian-Georgian border, we see a column of Turkish
lorries, naturally, the drivers of which cannot have a stamp in their
passports which is evidence of crossing the border. Even with an armed
eye we see that commodity circulation between Armenia and Turkey is
rather big - hundreds of millions, just the same way, as commodity
circulation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. One can find narsharab
made in Azerbaijan in any Armenian restaurant, just the same way, as
Armenian brandy produced in Armenia, may be found in any Azerbaijani
restaurant. In this context, Georgia could lighten this commodity
circulation at the non-official level. Such steps could result in
reduction of tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan. For this reason,
one should look for common interests separating them from policy.
Undoubtedly, there are such interests between the Armenians,
Azerbaijanis and Georgians.
In other words, there will be no changes in Georgia's relations
towards Armenia and Azerbaijan?
One should not expect crucial changes as there is no appropriate
context for this. Georgia is not a so much important player to affect
the positions of the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
They in Moscow are rumoring that if the United States starts a war
against Iran, Georgia may be used as a springboard. What do you think
about this?
I don't think that Georgia will be used as a springboard against Iran.
Those in Russia who are saying this are just seeking to make an enemy
of Georgia. I don't think that the Americans need our air bases,
they have air carriers for this. The United States and NATO may use
the Georgia bases for evacuating their troops from Afghanistan and
for some other purposes but not for attacks on Iran. Georgia has good
relations with Iran, why should we spoil them?
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Wednesday, November 14, 17:40
ArmInfo's interview with Director of the Institute for Policy Studies
(Georgia) George Tarkhan-Mouravi
Mr. Tarkhan-Mouravi, has the change of regime in Georgia brought any
new priorities in the geo-political situation in the South Caucasus?
Yes, it has in some way. But the fact is that Mikhail Saakashvili
was a better option for Russia as he fit better into its national and
geo-political priorities. What the Russians needed was an enemy and a
scapegoat, now they are waiting to see how the new regime will behave.
I see certain contradictions between the political interests of Georgia
and Russia: Georgia wants to be with the West, Russia does not want
this, just like Armenia; Russia has recognized the independence of
the territories Georgia regards as its own. These contradictions will
hardly be solved shortly, so, one should not expect serious long-term
improvement in Georgian-Russian relations. If anybody in Armenia or
elsewhere still hope otherwise, they should stop doing it.
The change of regime has made a new Georgian-Russian conflict less
possible, but it is hard to say what will happen after the Olympic
Games in Sochi. The victory of consolidated opposition in Georgia
may inspire oppositionists in Armenia, Azerbaijan or somewhere else
and may lead to certain instability in region.
Can the restart of the Abkhazian roads become a bridge for Russia
and Georgia to improve their relations?
I don't think so. If we look at the situation from the outside, we see
that the launch of the Abkhazian sector of the railway certainly meets
the interests of Armenia and Russia, but not Georgia or Abkhazia,
strange though it may appear. It does not stem from Abkhazia's
interests, because this formation does not want to depend on Russia
too much. However, pressure will be exerted on Abkhaz people, and
probably they will have to yield. But Russia will be unable to press
Georgia to the same extent. He said that this idea was expressed only
by Georgian Minister for Reintegration Paata Zakareishvili, whom it
does not concern at all. As for Bidzina Ivanishvili, in his election
campaign he expressed a lot of ideas he has already managed to give up
or even to express the opposite opinion. There are many such examples.
Then what sense does it make for Georgia to keep its borders closed?
No sense. Moreover, these borders should be open as much as possible
in order to establish mutual relations between
Abkhaz and Georgian peoples at the mundane level at least. However,
it would be unreasonable for Tbilisi to strengthen Russia's presence
in the region amid the unresolved strategic discrepancies with Georgia.
What can Moscow promise to Tbilisi in exchange for unblocking the
borders?
Moscow may promise nothing of what it really can promise and carry out.
What are Turkey's interests in this geo-political scenario?
The restart of the Abkhazian railway will be both bad and good news
for Turkey. The bad news, according to the Georgian expert, is that
this will strengthen Armenia, first of all, in military terms, the good
news is that this may increase the Turkish exports to Russia. But there
are certain but's: first, there is no railway from Turkey to Russia;
second, there is the Black Sea between the countries; and, third, even
if restarted, the railway will have capacity for Armenian cargoes only.
Georgia is a transit center for both Armenia and Azerbaijan and is
vital for the two countries. Keeping this in mind, what steps can
the new Georgian regime take with respect to Yerevan and Baku?
When crossing the Armenian-Georgian border, we see a column of Turkish
lorries, naturally, the drivers of which cannot have a stamp in their
passports which is evidence of crossing the border. Even with an armed
eye we see that commodity circulation between Armenia and Turkey is
rather big - hundreds of millions, just the same way, as commodity
circulation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. One can find narsharab
made in Azerbaijan in any Armenian restaurant, just the same way, as
Armenian brandy produced in Armenia, may be found in any Azerbaijani
restaurant. In this context, Georgia could lighten this commodity
circulation at the non-official level. Such steps could result in
reduction of tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan. For this reason,
one should look for common interests separating them from policy.
Undoubtedly, there are such interests between the Armenians,
Azerbaijanis and Georgians.
In other words, there will be no changes in Georgia's relations
towards Armenia and Azerbaijan?
One should not expect crucial changes as there is no appropriate
context for this. Georgia is not a so much important player to affect
the positions of the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
They in Moscow are rumoring that if the United States starts a war
against Iran, Georgia may be used as a springboard. What do you think
about this?
I don't think that Georgia will be used as a springboard against Iran.
Those in Russia who are saying this are just seeking to make an enemy
of Georgia. I don't think that the Americans need our air bases,
they have air carriers for this. The United States and NATO may use
the Georgia bases for evacuating their troops from Afghanistan and
for some other purposes but not for attacks on Iran. Georgia has good
relations with Iran, why should we spoil them?