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CAUCASIAN ARTERY WILL RUN ACROSS ARMENIA
HAKOB BADALYAN
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/politics/view/28112
Politics - Tuesday, 20 November 2012, 15:17
The statement of the Georgian minister of integration reduced
intensity of deliberations on the possible operation of the Abkhazian
railway. The reaction was not strong. But this was enough for
"reconnaissance" to understand the attitude of the regional actors.
Hence, a second wave of this topic is possible after the authors of
the idea of opening the railway analyze feedback from the first wave.
The new government of Georgia has a task to propose know-how for an
original and effective position on the regional, Georgian-Russian,
Abkhazian and Ossetian conflicts.
At the same time, the idea of operating the Abkhazian railway has
also an outlet for geopolitical developments, is located on a weak
but clearly felt artery.
The state of transportation in the South Caucasus is very poor,
which is not consistent with the potential it has. Now there is not
a regional railway. There is a regional pipeline - Baku-Ceyhan -
but there is not a railway.
The Kars-Akhalkalaki project is in place but it is not supported by
the West. Both the United States and the EU have refused to fund this
project. The reason is not that the project bypasses Armenia and may
generate tension and lines of demarcation. The West is reluctant to
leave the only regional transportation facility at the disposal of
Turks and Azeris.
At the same time, the West cannot prevent Turkey and Azerbaijan from
building the pipeline. It can hinder but it may be reluctant to. Why
not? Let Turkey and Azerbaijan build this infrastructure. This tool of
theirs will not seem dangerous or troublesome if other communications
are established as well.
>>From this point of view, the Abkhazian railway with the geography
Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Russia with outlets to the Black Sea and the
Persian Gulf or maybe even further to the Indian Ocean may be an
alternative to Kars-Akhalkalaki. This may be a competitive project,
especially that it will not be built anew but will be refurbished.
It will certainly be ingenuous to explain every practical policy on its
operation as an effort to ensure an alternative to Kars-Akhalkalaki
but this project is a serious challenge to the so-called Western
programs of modernization in the South Caucasus if it is the sole
railway in the Caucasus. In case of forming an alternative it becomes
a productive infrastructure.
At the same time, the Abkhazian railway has also the prospect of
the main artery of the South Caucasus which will be urgent in the
culmination of the fight for regional influence.
The project of the Armenia-Iran railway will acquire key importance
which has stopped being an Armenian project and gains more importance
in the Abkhazian context. Growth of interest and practical steps by
international investors is not ruled out.
Naturally, in this context the question occurs what interests the
West has, given the Abkhazian railway may boost the Russian influence.
The point is that the West expects to gain a substantial advantage
in the fight with Russia for influence on the South Caucasus.
At the same time, the West does not intend to oust Russia from the
South Caucasus in order not to cause complications. Russia will be
offered mostly economic projects with titular political dignity.
HAKOB BADALYAN
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/politics/view/28112
Politics - Tuesday, 20 November 2012, 15:17
The statement of the Georgian minister of integration reduced
intensity of deliberations on the possible operation of the Abkhazian
railway. The reaction was not strong. But this was enough for
"reconnaissance" to understand the attitude of the regional actors.
Hence, a second wave of this topic is possible after the authors of
the idea of opening the railway analyze feedback from the first wave.
The new government of Georgia has a task to propose know-how for an
original and effective position on the regional, Georgian-Russian,
Abkhazian and Ossetian conflicts.
At the same time, the idea of operating the Abkhazian railway has
also an outlet for geopolitical developments, is located on a weak
but clearly felt artery.
The state of transportation in the South Caucasus is very poor,
which is not consistent with the potential it has. Now there is not
a regional railway. There is a regional pipeline - Baku-Ceyhan -
but there is not a railway.
The Kars-Akhalkalaki project is in place but it is not supported by
the West. Both the United States and the EU have refused to fund this
project. The reason is not that the project bypasses Armenia and may
generate tension and lines of demarcation. The West is reluctant to
leave the only regional transportation facility at the disposal of
Turks and Azeris.
At the same time, the West cannot prevent Turkey and Azerbaijan from
building the pipeline. It can hinder but it may be reluctant to. Why
not? Let Turkey and Azerbaijan build this infrastructure. This tool of
theirs will not seem dangerous or troublesome if other communications
are established as well.
>>From this point of view, the Abkhazian railway with the geography
Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Russia with outlets to the Black Sea and the
Persian Gulf or maybe even further to the Indian Ocean may be an
alternative to Kars-Akhalkalaki. This may be a competitive project,
especially that it will not be built anew but will be refurbished.
It will certainly be ingenuous to explain every practical policy on its
operation as an effort to ensure an alternative to Kars-Akhalkalaki
but this project is a serious challenge to the so-called Western
programs of modernization in the South Caucasus if it is the sole
railway in the Caucasus. In case of forming an alternative it becomes
a productive infrastructure.
At the same time, the Abkhazian railway has also the prospect of
the main artery of the South Caucasus which will be urgent in the
culmination of the fight for regional influence.
The project of the Armenia-Iran railway will acquire key importance
which has stopped being an Armenian project and gains more importance
in the Abkhazian context. Growth of interest and practical steps by
international investors is not ruled out.
Naturally, in this context the question occurs what interests the
West has, given the Abkhazian railway may boost the Russian influence.
The point is that the West expects to gain a substantial advantage
in the fight with Russia for influence on the South Caucasus.
At the same time, the West does not intend to oust Russia from the
South Caucasus in order not to cause complications. Russia will be
offered mostly economic projects with titular political dignity.