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A SIGHT FROM YEREVAN: WILL THE WEST SUPPORT AZERBAIJAN?
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Monday, November 19, 21:38
The West will support Azerbaijan if its oil and gas infrastructure is
under threat. This is the title of an article by the Senior Research
Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy
Policy at the Heritage Foundation, Ariel Cohen, on the Voice of
America website. Even if we do not discuss in details the ideas of
an American expert, in general, this opus may be characterized like
an open provocation directed at removal of the status-quo which today
is the only stabilizing factor in the Karabakh conflict zone.
By the way, Mr Cohen's thread of thoughts is clear and obvious,
taking into consideration the fact that the problem of oil extraction
and transportation in Caspian Sea zone, is one of the key spheres
of professional expertise of this international expert, and ethnic
conflicts and Russia's relations with CIS countries. It is no secret,
that the world community in its approaches to the third countries
was always guided by material but not ideological factors. As for
the old Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, because of the same reasons, the
West cannot ignore oil and gas boreholes, that is to say, territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan for fair settlement of the Karabakh conflict
on the basis the peoples' right for self-determination. For this
reason, one should look for the logic of the ideas of an American
expert-"oilman" just in the oil and gas holes of the Aliyev's
Azerbaijan.
This logic is simple but not perfect. Forgetting about bellicose
statements by the dynastical regime of Azerbaijan, heroization of a
scum Safarov, numerous threats to Stepanakert and Yerevan, Cohen made
the last statements by President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan, the key
of his article. But the expert "forgot" that president of Armenia just
promised Baku to take relevant response measures, if Aliyev will be the
first to start an open aggression against the two Armenian republics,
and addressed these threats nit only to Baku but also "to the energy
and strategic interests of the West in the Caspian region".
Cohen grounded the warning by Serzh Sargsyan with the forthcoming
presidential election in Armenia, and said that the statements may
be followed by the actions which will have rather tragic consequences.
Taking into consideration an unprecidentally large military exercise
recently held in Nagornyy Karabakh, during which the Armed Forces
selected the options of the missile blow with a distance more than
300 km, Yerevan obviously watches the option of attacking the energy
infrastructure of Azerbaijan, Cohen said.
Not disproving justice of Cohen's idea, we can just say that such
attack by Yerevan cannot be of a preventive nature, as not political
suiciders are in the power in Armenia. The attacking of the energy
infrastructure of Azerbaijan may follow only as a response to the mass
attacking of the Karabakh positions, when Armenia will have no other
way out than to protect Karabakh residents by all the forces that it
owns. But putting aside this key argument in favor of breaking the
status-quo, the American expert preferred to touch in his article
only, how Armenia will be punished by the West for confrontation
to the Azerbaijani aggression. He thinks that protection of their
territory of the Armenians will contradict not only the interests
of the West, Israel and Turkey, which set hopes on the gas of the
Caspian region and have been cooperation with Baku in the sphere of
oil and gas production, but also the interests of the key ally of
Armenia - Russia. He explained his position by the threat to foreign
investments in Azerbaijan, the plans of the EU on diversification of
the gas sources and decrease of dependence on the Russian "Gasprom",
as well as to construction of TANAP gas pipeline. So, taking into
consideration that attaching of Azerbaijan's infrastructure will become
catastrophe for all the South Caucasus, Russia, Europe and the USA,
Cohen calls on the West to take efforts to refuse "the policy of
escalation and to prevent tragic development of events".
To be honest, we have to agree to the last part of the statement
by an American expert. Taking into consideration the capacity and
the types of weapon placed at both sides of the front line of the
Karabakhi-Azerbaijani confrontation, the new Karabakh war will
strongly damage not only the South Caucasus but also the bordering
countries. There is also no doubt that the response blows by Armenian
and Karabakhi armed forces will pock to pieces the entire energy
infrastructure of Azerbaijan, the major part of which belongs to
Western companies and British Petroleum first of all. I think that
in this context it would be more logical not to threat the Armenian
parties to Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, demanding from Yerevan and
Stepanakert to refuse an intention to protect their own people from
Aliyev's endless aggression. Today, the only way to prevent another
escalation of Nagornyy Karabakh conflict is to preserve the existing
status-quo, which Aliyev, sitting at the bags full of the oil dollars,
does not like at all.
So, Mr.Cohen and other such experts have to stop disseminating
political well-paid provocation, and start true political analyzing
of the situation. There is only one reality that has no alternative.
Neither Armenia nor NKR, Georgia, Turkey, Iran, the EU, the USA, Russia
and even Azerbaijan, though it is paradoxical, are not interested in
the new regional war. The reasons of it are obvious. For this reason,
only peaceful negotiating process, based on mutual compromises,
may lead to certain progress in settlement of Nagornyy Karabakh
conflict. And not only the parties to the Karabakh conflict but also
the superpowers, presented in the OSCE Minsk Group, should be ready to
these compromises. Today the frozen Karabakh conflict is a conditional
button, which superpowers manipulate with if they want.
For this reason, they are not going to settle the Karabakh conflict
today. However, today nobody needs true but not declarative resolving
of the Karabakh conflict. Adventurism and inadequacy, but not the
wish of the Armenian leadership to protect their own people, as some
persons have been trying to plant in our minds, are the only true
threat to the everlasting energy interests of the West.
From: A. Papazian
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Monday, November 19, 21:38
The West will support Azerbaijan if its oil and gas infrastructure is
under threat. This is the title of an article by the Senior Research
Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy
Policy at the Heritage Foundation, Ariel Cohen, on the Voice of
America website. Even if we do not discuss in details the ideas of
an American expert, in general, this opus may be characterized like
an open provocation directed at removal of the status-quo which today
is the only stabilizing factor in the Karabakh conflict zone.
By the way, Mr Cohen's thread of thoughts is clear and obvious,
taking into consideration the fact that the problem of oil extraction
and transportation in Caspian Sea zone, is one of the key spheres
of professional expertise of this international expert, and ethnic
conflicts and Russia's relations with CIS countries. It is no secret,
that the world community in its approaches to the third countries
was always guided by material but not ideological factors. As for
the old Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, because of the same reasons, the
West cannot ignore oil and gas boreholes, that is to say, territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan for fair settlement of the Karabakh conflict
on the basis the peoples' right for self-determination. For this
reason, one should look for the logic of the ideas of an American
expert-"oilman" just in the oil and gas holes of the Aliyev's
Azerbaijan.
This logic is simple but not perfect. Forgetting about bellicose
statements by the dynastical regime of Azerbaijan, heroization of a
scum Safarov, numerous threats to Stepanakert and Yerevan, Cohen made
the last statements by President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan, the key
of his article. But the expert "forgot" that president of Armenia just
promised Baku to take relevant response measures, if Aliyev will be the
first to start an open aggression against the two Armenian republics,
and addressed these threats nit only to Baku but also "to the energy
and strategic interests of the West in the Caspian region".
Cohen grounded the warning by Serzh Sargsyan with the forthcoming
presidential election in Armenia, and said that the statements may
be followed by the actions which will have rather tragic consequences.
Taking into consideration an unprecidentally large military exercise
recently held in Nagornyy Karabakh, during which the Armed Forces
selected the options of the missile blow with a distance more than
300 km, Yerevan obviously watches the option of attacking the energy
infrastructure of Azerbaijan, Cohen said.
Not disproving justice of Cohen's idea, we can just say that such
attack by Yerevan cannot be of a preventive nature, as not political
suiciders are in the power in Armenia. The attacking of the energy
infrastructure of Azerbaijan may follow only as a response to the mass
attacking of the Karabakh positions, when Armenia will have no other
way out than to protect Karabakh residents by all the forces that it
owns. But putting aside this key argument in favor of breaking the
status-quo, the American expert preferred to touch in his article
only, how Armenia will be punished by the West for confrontation
to the Azerbaijani aggression. He thinks that protection of their
territory of the Armenians will contradict not only the interests
of the West, Israel and Turkey, which set hopes on the gas of the
Caspian region and have been cooperation with Baku in the sphere of
oil and gas production, but also the interests of the key ally of
Armenia - Russia. He explained his position by the threat to foreign
investments in Azerbaijan, the plans of the EU on diversification of
the gas sources and decrease of dependence on the Russian "Gasprom",
as well as to construction of TANAP gas pipeline. So, taking into
consideration that attaching of Azerbaijan's infrastructure will become
catastrophe for all the South Caucasus, Russia, Europe and the USA,
Cohen calls on the West to take efforts to refuse "the policy of
escalation and to prevent tragic development of events".
To be honest, we have to agree to the last part of the statement
by an American expert. Taking into consideration the capacity and
the types of weapon placed at both sides of the front line of the
Karabakhi-Azerbaijani confrontation, the new Karabakh war will
strongly damage not only the South Caucasus but also the bordering
countries. There is also no doubt that the response blows by Armenian
and Karabakhi armed forces will pock to pieces the entire energy
infrastructure of Azerbaijan, the major part of which belongs to
Western companies and British Petroleum first of all. I think that
in this context it would be more logical not to threat the Armenian
parties to Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, demanding from Yerevan and
Stepanakert to refuse an intention to protect their own people from
Aliyev's endless aggression. Today, the only way to prevent another
escalation of Nagornyy Karabakh conflict is to preserve the existing
status-quo, which Aliyev, sitting at the bags full of the oil dollars,
does not like at all.
So, Mr.Cohen and other such experts have to stop disseminating
political well-paid provocation, and start true political analyzing
of the situation. There is only one reality that has no alternative.
Neither Armenia nor NKR, Georgia, Turkey, Iran, the EU, the USA, Russia
and even Azerbaijan, though it is paradoxical, are not interested in
the new regional war. The reasons of it are obvious. For this reason,
only peaceful negotiating process, based on mutual compromises,
may lead to certain progress in settlement of Nagornyy Karabakh
conflict. And not only the parties to the Karabakh conflict but also
the superpowers, presented in the OSCE Minsk Group, should be ready to
these compromises. Today the frozen Karabakh conflict is a conditional
button, which superpowers manipulate with if they want.
For this reason, they are not going to settle the Karabakh conflict
today. However, today nobody needs true but not declarative resolving
of the Karabakh conflict. Adventurism and inadequacy, but not the
wish of the Armenian leadership to protect their own people, as some
persons have been trying to plant in our minds, are the only true
threat to the everlasting energy interests of the West.
From: A. Papazian