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Soaring On The Wings Of Imagination To Face The Inconvenient Reality

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  • Soaring On The Wings Of Imagination To Face The Inconvenient Reality

    Soaring on the Wings of Imagination To Face the Inconvenient Reality

    http://www.armenianlife.com/2012/11/20/soaring-on-the-wings-of-imagination-to-face-the-inconvenient-reality/
    November 20, 2012

    Andrew Demirdjian, Ph.D

    A Commentary by Z. S. Andrew Demirdjian, Ph.D., the author of The
    Viability of a Worldwide Armenian Organization.

    Let us begin by testing the boundaries of our imagination. What if
    you were told that in our life time animals will discover fire and
    begin to BBQ (cook) their food? Your answer would be "Na" for this
    would have profound implications for wildfire which would eventually
    wipe out life on our plant.

    What if you were told that in our life time we shall see trees begin
    to walk to other locations in search of better nutrients and water?

    Your likely answer would be "Nope" for this too would be having
    drastic implications for our driving on the roads?

    What if you were told that in our life time land birds shall begin
    to swim? Again, you answer would be "not really" for this would also
    have drastic implications for our sushi (seafood) supplies for human
    consumption.

    Most likely your responses to the above three questions are that
    these assumptions are wild prognostication, a figment of one's
    imagination. Agreed.

    What if you were told that the Azaris will begin in our life time
    to wage war against Armenians in their attempt to recapture Artsakh
    (Ngoro-Karabakh), (an Armenian historic province long before the
    city of Tigranakert was built there in  honor of  King Tigranes the
    Great during the Hellenistic Period from 323 BC to 31 BC)? Naturally,
    the recapturing war would have dangerous consequences for the twin
    Armenian republics.

    What would be your response this time?  Like many Armenians, if
    you say "farfetched" or that the "chances are very slim" because
    Russia is on our side and Azerbaijan will not dare to attack us or
    that Armenia is very strong now -then, I challenge you to continue
    reading this commentary to let your imagination soar to see the likely
    eventuality. We do not want to see you caught by the enemy while you
    are sleeping.

    Table 1 contains some sobering statistics to convince you of the
    growing danger from Azerbaijan as is objectively shown in the
    statistical data of Armenia vs. Azerbaijan.

    Table 1 

    Some Statistics* on Population, Economy, & Military

    Armenia Azerbaijan Difference

     

    Population:

    2, 970,488 (2012)     9,493,600 (2012) 219% >Armenia

    Population Growth Rate:

    0.107 % (2012)    1.17% (2012)   990% >Armenia

    Total Fertility Rate:

    1.38 child./woman (2012)  1.92 child./woman 39%>Armenia

    Budget Expenditures:

    $2.57 billion (2011)  $20.56 billion (2011)  700%>Armenia

    Budget Revenues:

    $1.92 billion (2009)    $12.85 billion (2009)     569%>Armenia

    Debt - External:

    $7.34 billion (2011)  $3.89 billion (2011)    88 %< Armenia

    Exports:

    $1.32 billion (2011)    $23.48 billion (2011)  1680%>Armenia

    Imports:

    $3.54 billion (2011)  $7.08 billion (2011) 100%>Armenia

    GDP Purchas. Power Parity:

    $17.95 billion (2011)    $93.02 billion (2011)   420%>Armenia

    GDP- Real Growth Rate:

    4.6% (2011)   0.2% (2011)    2200 %< Armenia!

    Unemployment Rate:

    5.9% (2011)   1% (2011) 490 %< Armenia

    Labor Force:

    1.194 million (2011)   6.119 million (2011)  412%>Armenia

    Armed Forces Personnel:**

    6 units (2008) 54 units (2008) 800%>Armenia

    41,000 (2008)   72,000 (2008)  76%>Armenia

    Forces in aircraft:

    6 units (2008)  54 units (2008) 800%>Armenia

    Forces in Tanks:

    110 units (2008)    220 units (2008) 100%>Armenia

    Forces in helicopters:

    8 units (2008)    15 units (2008) 88%>Armenia

    Manpower - Males Ages 15-49:

    919, 582     2,159,450 (2008) 135%>Armenia

    Manpower - Reaching Military Age:

    30, 548 (2008)     94,402 (2008)   209%>Armenia

    *The sources of the above statistics are based on estimates provided
    by the CIA (Central Intelligence Administration of the United States)
    Factbook, Walden University Research Department, and Michigan State
    University Research Center - and not by the Armenian or Azerbaijani
    governments; (therefore, they are rather more reliable).

    **The branches of the Armed Forces of Armenia consist of Ground
    Forces, Nagorno-Karabakh Self Defense Force (NKSDF), Air Force and
    Air Defense while the Azerbaijani Armed Forces consist of Air, Army,
    Navy, Air and Air Defense Forces. While the stats on the population
    and the economy of the two countries are current from 2011 and 2012,
    the military estimates are from the year 2008 which were the latest
    available. Military information is ordinarily sensitive and secrete.

    During the last decade, however Azerbaijan has amassed greater
    military might because of petro dollars and "allies" like Israel,
    Turkey, and the USA.

    Let your mind soar on the wings of imagination to see the daunting
    reality of the impending national problems facing the Republic
    of Armenia, and the Republic of Artsakh. Most of us adhere to the
    fossilized idea that we are protected or even invincible and that Big
    Brother Russia will come to the rescue in the event of a full-fledged
    attack.

    The twin Armenian republics are doing their best to be ready to
    defend the motherland. The idea is not to alarm anyone but to serve
    as a wake-up call to the Diaspora to get up and organize for such
    an eventuality. History tells us that the Armenians have been caught
    unprepared, unorganized too many times in the past. It seems we tend
    not to learn from our experiences. Let us not use stone age speed
    for moving forward.

    As is shown in Table 1, Azerbaijan outshined Armenia in all the three
    major areas of the population, economy, and the military. There was
    only one exception in the economy area and that Armenia had a higher
    GDP growth rate than Azerbaijan. In all other aspects, Azerbaijan
    excelled with a flying color.

    Azerbaijan's might is predicated on its ethnic diversity consisting
    of the amalgamation of Mountain Jews, Caucasian Albanians, Pontic
    Greeks, Arabs, Armenians, Assyrians, Georgians, Persians, Kurds,
    Turks to name a few. I read somewhere that during the Soviet era over
    30,000 Armenian women had married with Azari men.

    Azerbaijan's might is also based on its main jihadist religion of
    Islam, steady population growth, rising petro dollars and committed
    allies. What I mean is that we are not dealing with a small primitive
    nomadic Turkish tribe coming from Central Asia any more. Like Turkey,
    Azerbaijan is achievement oriented with a vibrant population imbued
    with many cultures.

    While the Armenian Diaspora raises funds for roads, schools, and
    housing, the defense of the two Armenian republics is relegated. We
    need to beef up the defense without it our roads, schools, and houses
    will probably be trodden and destroyed one of these days.

    Akin to earthquake preparedness, it is imperative to face the near
    future challenges looming on the horizon despite our reliance on
    foreign intervention on and in our behalf.

    If the Diaspora were organized, we would have made capital of the
    recent release of the convicted murderer (Azerbaijani officer Ramil
    Safarov) for the gruesome axing of an Armenian officer while in sleep
    in 2004. NATO, Hungary, and Azerbaijan should have been put to shame
    for the transfer, release and glorification of this mad man.

    The criminal was not a lone man, or just one person. Condoning the
    act, rewarding the criminal, treating the criminal as a national
    hero indicates that Azerbaijan fails to meet the human standards of
    Western civilization. The entire nation, therefore, has to be blamed
    for glorifying the criminal who committed a barbarian act and whose
    government not only condoned it, but also treated the heinous crime
    as a brave act.

    The Talmud has a saying: "Who can protest an injustice but does not
    is an accomplice to the act". To leave the destiny of Artsakh in the
    hands of the Azaris would be a precarious proposition to say the least.

    The barbaric act alone should justify to the rest of the civilized
    world as to why the Armenians of Artsakh should remain independent
    based on self-determination and not under the criminally minded
    government of Azerbaijan.

    In the event of war, a worldwide Armenian organization would play a
    vital role in defending the motherland. How many Diaspora Armenians
    would be willing and ready to come to the rescue of their brothers
    and sisters should be known in advance? How many Diaspora Armenians
    would volunteer for the defense? What basic preparedness is needed
    and who would provide that, etc., etc.?

    When Armenia is under attack, most of the young and able-bodied
    Armenians are in overseas working. A large number of them are married
    and have families. When war breaks out, it would be difficult to
    respond to the call of duty. It would be chaotic as the war drags on.

    Sustainability is the main issue here. How long can Armenia endure
    the human and material loss as a result of protracted war?

    A worldwide Armenian organization would instill and even boost
    confidence in the twin Armenian republics that their brothers and
    sisters have committed themselves to helping out with the conflict.

    Such a social mobilization would also serve as a deterrent to the
    enemy by showing that they will be facing the federation of the
    Republic of Armenia, the Republic of Artsakh, and the formidable
    Armenian Diaspora. In this way, we would be practicing management by
    objectives rather than management by crisis.

    History is mostly made by individuals rather than groups. We need
    leaders to step forth and begin to organize the Diaspora.

    A glance at the Armenian history would show one that Armenians have
    been disunited even in the face of the enemy. Then as now, Armenians
    have suffered from lack of a world organization as noted by many
    non-Armenian observers.

    Against the backdrop of increasing threat from Azerbaijan, we cannot
    sleep while the sworn enemy readies for a forceful recapture of
    Artsakh. Let us not kid ourselves about the power of Azerbaijan. Let
    us take that as given even if we are wrong about it, and proceed
    planning from that premise. As you well know, wars are not fought on
    horseback nowadays nor are they carried on in the tranches anymore.

    High-tech warfare has already been used in many of the recent
    international conflicts. For example, weapons in Iraqi war have been
    high-tech wonders, like unmanned drones that drop Hellfire missiles
    on the enemy below, troupes like US Sergeant Christopher Lejeune went
    into battle with different kind of weapons, one so stealthy that
    few Americans even knew of its deployment. In today's world, where
    paradigm shifts are the order of the day, change is the only constant.

    Many Armenians hold the notion that in the event of war with
    Azerbaijan, Armenia will come out victorious. That may very well
    be true, but the price of victory maybe too high.  However, there
    is such a thing as victory in defeat: the fateful epic Battle of
    Avarayr (May 26, 451 AD) is a case in point. Also, there is defeat
    in victory: the tiny Armenian nation cannot afford to lose any part
    of its youth to war. Armenia is already bleeding from dual loss of
    mostly able-bodied young men and women to debilitating brain drain,
    skilled laborers and to the imperceptible jaws of assimilation of
    the Diaspora around the world.

    Unleash your imaginative powers to soar in the realm of possibilities
    and to come up with the conviction that Armenians should unite
    internationally in order to be able to face this impending calamity.

    I know that most of you agree with that, yet hesitate to clear away
    the negative energy of dwelling on our differences to put the muscle
    behind the unity idea.

    Our national purpose is bigger than our differences. Our only hope
    is you, the young Armenian men and women, to come forth and put some
    activation energy in our veins to make us find a common ground to
    move forward and face the inconvenient reality of the growing threat
    to our very existence.

    Note: My special thanks go to Ms. Zara Mokatsian for her careful
    review of the statistical data in Table 1.

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