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REVERSING THE DEPOPULATION OF ARMENIA: PEOPLE NEED REASONS TO STAY
By Gabriel Armas-Cardona
http://hetq.am/eng/opinion/20947/fixing-the-depopulation-of-armenia-people-need-reasons-to-stay.html
11:28, November 27, 2012
Armenia has a people problem. While many Hayastancis may be proud
of their country, they're leaving in droves, having less children,
and aren't hopeful about their futures.
Emigration and a low birthright are existential challenges for
Armenia that its leaders are not able to face. Instead of promoting
bad policies like paying for families to have children, we could use
those resources to make Armenia a country people want to live in.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Armenia has had an emigration
problem. The World Bank estimates the peak of Armenia's population at
3.54 million in 1990. Now there are 3.1 million. During the Soviet
Union, Armenia had a growth rate of 1.5%. If Armenia had the same
growth rate since 2003, when the population started to increase
again, Armenia would have 3.5 million people. We're missing 400,000
people. Where are those people?
Emigration and a dropping birthrate are the key explanations. The
birthrate per woman was 1.74 in 2010, below the approximately
2.1 children needed to sustain a population. It's estimated
that 97,000 people have left Armenia as of September, with
about 39% ofHayastan's wanting to leave permanently. Fortunately,
Armenia's emigration rate is improving, as it is currently -3.35 per
1,000 people instead of 2010's net migration rate of -4.9 per 1,000
people.
[chart-pop.jpg]
What the government has done hasn't helped
The government has tried to limit emigration through ineffective
mechanisms. The government can't stop people from leaving, but it
has tried to make it harder for people to leave rather than try to
make them want to stay.
This summer, the government instituted a new policy
requiring Hayastancis that leave the country for six months to tell
the local embassy or be fined 3,000 dram. The fine, for now, isn't
large, but the concern is the government is keeping watch over the
people that leave, maybe to dissuade them from leaving. Some even
say the government delayed giving passports to children during the
summer to stop families from leaving.
The government's single-shot solution of paying people for having
children is a much worse waste of government money. Armenia has been
paying people to have children for a long time. The government is
currently planning to start paying in 2014 a massive 1 million and 1.5
million drams payment to families for any child past the second child.
This is an expensive policy is a terrible waste of money because
there is no multiplier effect. In any policy, the government should
try to increase its multiplier effect. If building a new road costs
50 million drams but creates 300 million drams worth of activity,
then it has a multiple effect of six. The money given for a first
child will likely go to buy new clothes or items for the child. This
has a multiplier effect of one. For the third and fourth child, the
family already has many of the items they need, so they'll buy fewer
things, causing a multiplier effect of less than one. Considering
the abundance of challenges Armenia faces, to promote a policy with
a multiplier of less than one is a waste.
Even worse, the poor families that are most incentivized to take
advantage of the million dram offers are the least able to afford to
have children. Poor families desperate for money might have a child
primarily for the money. The million drams can help the family to
live for at most a year or two. Afterwards, the family may still be
poor and won't be able to take care of the new baby. The baby may
be sent to an orphanage or maybe worse; poor children are the most
vulnerable to being trafficked by criminal groups.
Government must pursue a different approach
What the government needs to do is to make people not want to leave
and feel confident about their futures to want to raise families in
Armenia. To do that, the government needs to focus on why people are
leaving. From 2002 to 2007, 94% of Hayastancis left to find better
work. In 2010, 89% of Hayastancis said that unemployment, poverty or
low income was the most pressing issue for their families. Without
increasing employment options, Hayastanci will continue to leave,
no matter what stopgap policies the government attempts.
Increasing the number of jobs in Armenia is hard but doable. Use the
millions of dram that would have gone to the third or fourth child and
use that money on policies with high multiplier effect, or institute
(free) policy choices that open up the market to newentrepreneurs,
or make sure that foreign investors have redress for any fraud or
corruption to encourage more investments. Any of these things will
promote the economy and allow Hayastancis to stay.
The Diaspora also needs employment prospects
On a personal note, I want to mention how much more the government
could do to encourage the Diaspora to return to Armenia. I am a
member of the Diaspora who was able to come and live in Armenia for
six months thanks to Birthright Armenia. I was a fellow at theHuman
Rights Defender's Office through the coordination of Armenian Volunteer
Corps. As my time was reaching an end, I spoke with as many people
as possible to find a job that could keep me in Armenia longer.
I was unsuccessful and still have yet to secure anything that can bring
me back. I don't deserve a job more than any Hayastanci, but without
opportunities for young members of the Diaspora to work in Armenia, we
can't and won't come back to live in Armenia. New programs like Repat
Armenia are helping solve this problem, but the government could do
more to encourage this immigration and help repopulate Hayastan.
Gabriel Armas-Cardona is a graduate from New York University Law
School and was a legal fellow at the Office of the Human Rights
Defender of the Republic of Armenia. He regularly comments
on the politics and human rights situation of Armenia on his
bloghttp://humanrightsinyerevan.wordpress.com.
From: A. Papazian
By Gabriel Armas-Cardona
http://hetq.am/eng/opinion/20947/fixing-the-depopulation-of-armenia-people-need-reasons-to-stay.html
11:28, November 27, 2012
Armenia has a people problem. While many Hayastancis may be proud
of their country, they're leaving in droves, having less children,
and aren't hopeful about their futures.
Emigration and a low birthright are existential challenges for
Armenia that its leaders are not able to face. Instead of promoting
bad policies like paying for families to have children, we could use
those resources to make Armenia a country people want to live in.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Armenia has had an emigration
problem. The World Bank estimates the peak of Armenia's population at
3.54 million in 1990. Now there are 3.1 million. During the Soviet
Union, Armenia had a growth rate of 1.5%. If Armenia had the same
growth rate since 2003, when the population started to increase
again, Armenia would have 3.5 million people. We're missing 400,000
people. Where are those people?
Emigration and a dropping birthrate are the key explanations. The
birthrate per woman was 1.74 in 2010, below the approximately
2.1 children needed to sustain a population. It's estimated
that 97,000 people have left Armenia as of September, with
about 39% ofHayastan's wanting to leave permanently. Fortunately,
Armenia's emigration rate is improving, as it is currently -3.35 per
1,000 people instead of 2010's net migration rate of -4.9 per 1,000
people.
[chart-pop.jpg]
What the government has done hasn't helped
The government has tried to limit emigration through ineffective
mechanisms. The government can't stop people from leaving, but it
has tried to make it harder for people to leave rather than try to
make them want to stay.
This summer, the government instituted a new policy
requiring Hayastancis that leave the country for six months to tell
the local embassy or be fined 3,000 dram. The fine, for now, isn't
large, but the concern is the government is keeping watch over the
people that leave, maybe to dissuade them from leaving. Some even
say the government delayed giving passports to children during the
summer to stop families from leaving.
The government's single-shot solution of paying people for having
children is a much worse waste of government money. Armenia has been
paying people to have children for a long time. The government is
currently planning to start paying in 2014 a massive 1 million and 1.5
million drams payment to families for any child past the second child.
This is an expensive policy is a terrible waste of money because
there is no multiplier effect. In any policy, the government should
try to increase its multiplier effect. If building a new road costs
50 million drams but creates 300 million drams worth of activity,
then it has a multiple effect of six. The money given for a first
child will likely go to buy new clothes or items for the child. This
has a multiplier effect of one. For the third and fourth child, the
family already has many of the items they need, so they'll buy fewer
things, causing a multiplier effect of less than one. Considering
the abundance of challenges Armenia faces, to promote a policy with
a multiplier of less than one is a waste.
Even worse, the poor families that are most incentivized to take
advantage of the million dram offers are the least able to afford to
have children. Poor families desperate for money might have a child
primarily for the money. The million drams can help the family to
live for at most a year or two. Afterwards, the family may still be
poor and won't be able to take care of the new baby. The baby may
be sent to an orphanage or maybe worse; poor children are the most
vulnerable to being trafficked by criminal groups.
Government must pursue a different approach
What the government needs to do is to make people not want to leave
and feel confident about their futures to want to raise families in
Armenia. To do that, the government needs to focus on why people are
leaving. From 2002 to 2007, 94% of Hayastancis left to find better
work. In 2010, 89% of Hayastancis said that unemployment, poverty or
low income was the most pressing issue for their families. Without
increasing employment options, Hayastanci will continue to leave,
no matter what stopgap policies the government attempts.
Increasing the number of jobs in Armenia is hard but doable. Use the
millions of dram that would have gone to the third or fourth child and
use that money on policies with high multiplier effect, or institute
(free) policy choices that open up the market to newentrepreneurs,
or make sure that foreign investors have redress for any fraud or
corruption to encourage more investments. Any of these things will
promote the economy and allow Hayastancis to stay.
The Diaspora also needs employment prospects
On a personal note, I want to mention how much more the government
could do to encourage the Diaspora to return to Armenia. I am a
member of the Diaspora who was able to come and live in Armenia for
six months thanks to Birthright Armenia. I was a fellow at theHuman
Rights Defender's Office through the coordination of Armenian Volunteer
Corps. As my time was reaching an end, I spoke with as many people
as possible to find a job that could keep me in Armenia longer.
I was unsuccessful and still have yet to secure anything that can bring
me back. I don't deserve a job more than any Hayastanci, but without
opportunities for young members of the Diaspora to work in Armenia, we
can't and won't come back to live in Armenia. New programs like Repat
Armenia are helping solve this problem, but the government could do
more to encourage this immigration and help repopulate Hayastan.
Gabriel Armas-Cardona is a graduate from New York University Law
School and was a legal fellow at the Office of the Human Rights
Defender of the Republic of Armenia. He regularly comments
on the politics and human rights situation of Armenia on his
bloghttp://humanrightsinyerevan.wordpress.com.
From: A. Papazian