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RISKS FOR THE ARMENIAN AUTHORITIES
Vestnik Kavkaza
Nov 27 2012
Russia
Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Less than three months remain till the presidential elections in
Armenia. Today the political forces analyze their advantages and
possible risks. The main competitors are the authorities represented
by President Serge Sargsyan and the party Prosperous Armenia headed by
tycoon Gagik Tsarukyan. Internal political prospects can be predicted
after the analysis of the system's stability in three directions -
economic, internal political, and foreign political risks.
Economic risks
The discussed state budget project for 2013 is heavily criticized by
the opposition. According to the most conservative estimate of the IMF,
35% of Armenian economy is in shadow; Armenian experts are sure that
this figure achieves 50%. The other important consequence is paying
the foreign debt which is more than $400 million - it is a huge sum
which is twofold greater than the sum allocated to paying the debt in
2012. Many experts believe that the government will take new credits
for serving the current debt. These suggestions were confirmed by the
deputy financing minister Vardan Aramyan. Negotiations on getting a
new credit are going on, but either the EU or Russia hasn't given a
positive answer.
One more economic risk is a negative business environment: despite the
government's statement on development of minor and medium business,
in fact this business is oppressed in favor of major monopolists.
The current economic risks may enforce after the growth of prices
on Russian gas, which is planned since April 1, 2013, according to
certain sources. Gas prices growing, allocation of huge sums for debt
service, and monopolization of economy which causes migration will
create tension in the socio-economic sphere. To resist the risks the
government should have necessary reserves which are few. The state has
to collect taxes properly and reduce the so-called "shadow segment"
for providing these reserves. It means damaging interests of tycoons
who are closely connected with the authorities.
Therefore, the socio-economic situation will remain tense, but we
cannot say that it is hopeless and can cause a social burst. Most
probably, the system's stability will maintain in the socio-economic
sphere.
Foreign political risks
The dominating directions of the Armenian foreign policy are settlement
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Armenian-Turkish relations, and
relations between Armenia and the key players in the region - the USA,
Russia, and the EU.
Tension remains on the firing line in the Karabakh conflict, but
it became permanent. A possibility of reviving wide-scale military
activities is thought to be tiny by many Armenian experts. The results
of the elections will hardly cause escalation of the conflict.
Regarding the second direction of the foreign policy, as the
Armenian-Turkish border is closed in Turkey's sole discretion,
there will be no surprises. Moreover, a Russian military base which
provides Armenian security is situated new the border in west Armenia
and plays an important role in providing stability in the region.
As for foreign players, Brussels and Washington support the
administration of Serge Sargsyan. They are very interested in victory
of the current authorities. Firstly, Sargsyan promised and signed
the Armenian-Turkish protocols in October 2009. Secondly, he has
many times stated on his readiness to sign the Madrid Principles of
the Karabakh settlement. The solution of both problems is connected
with the West's striving for diminishing Russia's influence in the
South Caucasus. Signing of the Madrid Principles opens a way to
the settlement of the conflict and weakens Russia's influence. Key
importance (for the US especially) is gained by the protocols on
normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations, including settlement
of diplomatic relations and opening communications. Fulfillment of
the protocols will weaken Russian influence on Armenia. Considering
this fact, Washington and Brussels try to hold Sargsyan in power. All
international institutes which are controlled by Western countries
will support him in the coming elections.
At the same time, the position of Russia, one of the key players in
the region, toward the Armenian authorities is still dim. Moreover,
it seems Russia doesn't want to be involved into the process at all
or at least distances itself from it.
Ahead of the parliamentary elections in 2007 and the presidential
elections in 2008, Russia expressed political support of Sargsyan.
Today we cannot see this. Long time has passed since any important
Russian figures visited Yerevan. In late summer it was discussed
that President of Russia Vladimir Putin would visit Armenia. However,
it didn't happen.
Internal political risks
The Republican Party of Armenia is a quite strong organization which
controls force structures, the government, the parliament, and has huge
financial capacities. At the same time, today Armenia experiences
a tendency to forming an alternative pole to RPA - it includes
Prosperous Armenia and the Armenian National Congress. Probably the
Dashnaktsutyn Party will join these forces. This alternative pole can
present a unified candidate, and most probably he would be a tough
competitor for Serge Sargsyan in the elections. Nobody believes in
social polls in Armenia; their results often disturb orientation in
the internal political situation. However, the social attitude to the
current authorities is expressed in activeness of social initiatives,
numerous protest demonstrations near the government building, the
Presidential Palace, which are connected with the authorities' policy
and unfair court verdicts.
According to observers, Sargsyan has the biggest anti-ranking among
politicians. In the situation when the alternative pole is being
formed and the social support is so low, account on "dead souls"
(about 500 thousand votes of citizens who are not in the country at
the moment), which is normal for RPA, can lead to serious accidents.
If the authorities ascribe a half a million votes to them, it can
explode the society.
Speaking about internal political risks for the system, the open use
of damaging information should be noted; it is the first time in the
Armenian political life. Until now damaging information has never been
used openly in election campaigns. There were only threats to use it,
but the authorities broke the tradition. I mean damaging information
against the former foreign minister, the member of Prosperous Armenia
Vardan Oskanyan. The power opened Pandora's Box by the incident; and
probably soon serious damaging information against the authorities
will appear.
It should be realized that there are more participants in the
presidential elections than in the parliamentary elections, as
voters understand clearly whom they elect and what for. Moreover,
200-250 thousand voters are labor migrants who come to Armenia for
winter. The majority of these people will hardly support the power
which forced these people leave the country in a search for job.
Nevertheless, the system is relevantly stable in all three directions.
However, it is difficult to say whether the stability will maintain
in the certain extreme situation.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/34199.html
Vestnik Kavkaza
Nov 27 2012
Russia
Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Less than three months remain till the presidential elections in
Armenia. Today the political forces analyze their advantages and
possible risks. The main competitors are the authorities represented
by President Serge Sargsyan and the party Prosperous Armenia headed by
tycoon Gagik Tsarukyan. Internal political prospects can be predicted
after the analysis of the system's stability in three directions -
economic, internal political, and foreign political risks.
Economic risks
The discussed state budget project for 2013 is heavily criticized by
the opposition. According to the most conservative estimate of the IMF,
35% of Armenian economy is in shadow; Armenian experts are sure that
this figure achieves 50%. The other important consequence is paying
the foreign debt which is more than $400 million - it is a huge sum
which is twofold greater than the sum allocated to paying the debt in
2012. Many experts believe that the government will take new credits
for serving the current debt. These suggestions were confirmed by the
deputy financing minister Vardan Aramyan. Negotiations on getting a
new credit are going on, but either the EU or Russia hasn't given a
positive answer.
One more economic risk is a negative business environment: despite the
government's statement on development of minor and medium business,
in fact this business is oppressed in favor of major monopolists.
The current economic risks may enforce after the growth of prices
on Russian gas, which is planned since April 1, 2013, according to
certain sources. Gas prices growing, allocation of huge sums for debt
service, and monopolization of economy which causes migration will
create tension in the socio-economic sphere. To resist the risks the
government should have necessary reserves which are few. The state has
to collect taxes properly and reduce the so-called "shadow segment"
for providing these reserves. It means damaging interests of tycoons
who are closely connected with the authorities.
Therefore, the socio-economic situation will remain tense, but we
cannot say that it is hopeless and can cause a social burst. Most
probably, the system's stability will maintain in the socio-economic
sphere.
Foreign political risks
The dominating directions of the Armenian foreign policy are settlement
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Armenian-Turkish relations, and
relations between Armenia and the key players in the region - the USA,
Russia, and the EU.
Tension remains on the firing line in the Karabakh conflict, but
it became permanent. A possibility of reviving wide-scale military
activities is thought to be tiny by many Armenian experts. The results
of the elections will hardly cause escalation of the conflict.
Regarding the second direction of the foreign policy, as the
Armenian-Turkish border is closed in Turkey's sole discretion,
there will be no surprises. Moreover, a Russian military base which
provides Armenian security is situated new the border in west Armenia
and plays an important role in providing stability in the region.
As for foreign players, Brussels and Washington support the
administration of Serge Sargsyan. They are very interested in victory
of the current authorities. Firstly, Sargsyan promised and signed
the Armenian-Turkish protocols in October 2009. Secondly, he has
many times stated on his readiness to sign the Madrid Principles of
the Karabakh settlement. The solution of both problems is connected
with the West's striving for diminishing Russia's influence in the
South Caucasus. Signing of the Madrid Principles opens a way to
the settlement of the conflict and weakens Russia's influence. Key
importance (for the US especially) is gained by the protocols on
normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations, including settlement
of diplomatic relations and opening communications. Fulfillment of
the protocols will weaken Russian influence on Armenia. Considering
this fact, Washington and Brussels try to hold Sargsyan in power. All
international institutes which are controlled by Western countries
will support him in the coming elections.
At the same time, the position of Russia, one of the key players in
the region, toward the Armenian authorities is still dim. Moreover,
it seems Russia doesn't want to be involved into the process at all
or at least distances itself from it.
Ahead of the parliamentary elections in 2007 and the presidential
elections in 2008, Russia expressed political support of Sargsyan.
Today we cannot see this. Long time has passed since any important
Russian figures visited Yerevan. In late summer it was discussed
that President of Russia Vladimir Putin would visit Armenia. However,
it didn't happen.
Internal political risks
The Republican Party of Armenia is a quite strong organization which
controls force structures, the government, the parliament, and has huge
financial capacities. At the same time, today Armenia experiences
a tendency to forming an alternative pole to RPA - it includes
Prosperous Armenia and the Armenian National Congress. Probably the
Dashnaktsutyn Party will join these forces. This alternative pole can
present a unified candidate, and most probably he would be a tough
competitor for Serge Sargsyan in the elections. Nobody believes in
social polls in Armenia; their results often disturb orientation in
the internal political situation. However, the social attitude to the
current authorities is expressed in activeness of social initiatives,
numerous protest demonstrations near the government building, the
Presidential Palace, which are connected with the authorities' policy
and unfair court verdicts.
According to observers, Sargsyan has the biggest anti-ranking among
politicians. In the situation when the alternative pole is being
formed and the social support is so low, account on "dead souls"
(about 500 thousand votes of citizens who are not in the country at
the moment), which is normal for RPA, can lead to serious accidents.
If the authorities ascribe a half a million votes to them, it can
explode the society.
Speaking about internal political risks for the system, the open use
of damaging information should be noted; it is the first time in the
Armenian political life. Until now damaging information has never been
used openly in election campaigns. There were only threats to use it,
but the authorities broke the tradition. I mean damaging information
against the former foreign minister, the member of Prosperous Armenia
Vardan Oskanyan. The power opened Pandora's Box by the incident; and
probably soon serious damaging information against the authorities
will appear.
It should be realized that there are more participants in the
presidential elections than in the parliamentary elections, as
voters understand clearly whom they elect and what for. Moreover,
200-250 thousand voters are labor migrants who come to Armenia for
winter. The majority of these people will hardly support the power
which forced these people leave the country in a search for job.
Nevertheless, the system is relevantly stable in all three directions.
However, it is difficult to say whether the stability will maintain
in the certain extreme situation.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/34199.html