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MATEUSZ PISKORSKI: IT IS UNTIMELY SPEAKING OF MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH IN MOSCOW-TBILISI RELATIONS
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Wednesday, October 3, 19:48
Interview with Director of the European Center on the Geopolitical
Analysis Mateusz Piskorski
Before the official results of the parliamentary elections in Georgia
were ever announced, Speaker of Russia's Federation Council Valentina
Matvienko hurried to declare that the victory of Bidzina Ivanishvili's
Georgian Dream was a chance that Russian-Georgian relations might
improve. Do you think so?
A change of power in any country brings certain hopes for a change
of foreign policy landmarks. In such case, diplomatic code allows
a high-ranking official to express such hopes, of course. On the
other hand, there are some factors that will hardly contribute to
the Russian-Georgian normalization. That is, for certain period
of time Ivanishvili will be hostage to Sahakashvili, who is the
president so far and has a number of administrative and constitutional
levers. In addition, the greatest part of the population in Georgia
has certain attitude towards Moscow, which will have a serious impact
on the upcoming presidential race. This is another factor hindering
normalization of the relations with Russia. Consequently, Saakashvili's
supporters will interpret any attempt of rapprochement with Russia as
"high treason" by Georgian Dream. So, it is untimely speaking of a
major breakthrough in the relations of Moscow and Tbilisi.
Throughout their election campaign Georgian Dream kept expressing
loyalty to Georgia's pro-western orientation. Was it just a
pre-election move or will Ivanishvili continue moving westward in
a view of the fact that the United States continues being the key
sponsor of Georgia's infrastructure projects?
U.S. Ambassador to Tbilisi Richard Norland was among the first
diplomats to recognize the parliamentary elections in Georgia.
Washington very easily finds common language with new political leaders
in many countries, and Mubarak and other victims to the so-called
Arab spring are best evidence of that. USA's role in Georgia will
not change at least because Georgia is still an important transport
route of energy products. Now Mikheil Saakashvili's supports will
surely try to persuade the U.S. that the winner in the parliamentary
elections is not a reliable partner. However, everything depends on
Washington's plans.
It's not a secret that the EU flag has become one of the symbols of
new Georgia. What are the prospects of Georgia's integration into
Europe under Ivanishvili as possible Prime Minister?
I see no chance for Georgia to be involved in the European
integration process due to some reasons. Georgia may hope just for
some insignificant funds as part of the Eastern Partnership Project
and implementation of some infrastructure projects. Ivanishvili's
coming to power will hardly change much in that area. Georgia is not
a priority for the EU. After the information campaign about violation
of human rights by the Georgian authorities, in Brussels they will
be happy to see a businessman replacing the strange and unpredictable
Georgian leader.
What changes can we expect in Armenian-Georgian relations now that
Georgian-Russian relations may change?
Some experts have already expressed concern that Armenia will no longer
have such big part in Russia's policy in the South Caucasus in case the
relations of Tbilisi and Moscow are normalized. Nevertheless, a major
breakthrough in these relations is hardly possible. So, nothing will
change significantly. As for the relations of Tbilisi and Yerevan,
there are hopes that Bidzina Ivanishvili's policy will be based on
certain mutually advantageous economic interests of the two countries.
Georgia is the key transit country for both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
What geo-political transformations can we expect in the South Caucasus
following the change of power in Georgia?
Georgia is the key transit country for both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
However, I anticipate no serious geopolitical changes in the South
Caucasus with the change of power in Georgia. Azerbaijan will be
reluctant to use Georgia as a transport corridor like Armenia does.
What may change is Russia's influence on the negotiation processes
in the region, which will create more possibility also for Yerevan.
It is not a secret that Saakashvili's policy on Georgia's ethnic
minorities has been repeatedly criticized by the West. Do you expect
any changes in this field?
Georgian Dream enlisted big support of Adjara. Tere was certain
ethnonationalism in Saakashvili's policy. May be it was not as
tough as under Zviad Gamsakhurdia, but it was not insignificant. The
point is that whether that propaganda has had any serious impact on
the public opinion in Georgia. Presidential elections will be held
Georgia and this very perspective will determine Georgia's policy
for the coming year.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Wednesday, October 3, 19:48
Interview with Director of the European Center on the Geopolitical
Analysis Mateusz Piskorski
Before the official results of the parliamentary elections in Georgia
were ever announced, Speaker of Russia's Federation Council Valentina
Matvienko hurried to declare that the victory of Bidzina Ivanishvili's
Georgian Dream was a chance that Russian-Georgian relations might
improve. Do you think so?
A change of power in any country brings certain hopes for a change
of foreign policy landmarks. In such case, diplomatic code allows
a high-ranking official to express such hopes, of course. On the
other hand, there are some factors that will hardly contribute to
the Russian-Georgian normalization. That is, for certain period
of time Ivanishvili will be hostage to Sahakashvili, who is the
president so far and has a number of administrative and constitutional
levers. In addition, the greatest part of the population in Georgia
has certain attitude towards Moscow, which will have a serious impact
on the upcoming presidential race. This is another factor hindering
normalization of the relations with Russia. Consequently, Saakashvili's
supporters will interpret any attempt of rapprochement with Russia as
"high treason" by Georgian Dream. So, it is untimely speaking of a
major breakthrough in the relations of Moscow and Tbilisi.
Throughout their election campaign Georgian Dream kept expressing
loyalty to Georgia's pro-western orientation. Was it just a
pre-election move or will Ivanishvili continue moving westward in
a view of the fact that the United States continues being the key
sponsor of Georgia's infrastructure projects?
U.S. Ambassador to Tbilisi Richard Norland was among the first
diplomats to recognize the parliamentary elections in Georgia.
Washington very easily finds common language with new political leaders
in many countries, and Mubarak and other victims to the so-called
Arab spring are best evidence of that. USA's role in Georgia will
not change at least because Georgia is still an important transport
route of energy products. Now Mikheil Saakashvili's supports will
surely try to persuade the U.S. that the winner in the parliamentary
elections is not a reliable partner. However, everything depends on
Washington's plans.
It's not a secret that the EU flag has become one of the symbols of
new Georgia. What are the prospects of Georgia's integration into
Europe under Ivanishvili as possible Prime Minister?
I see no chance for Georgia to be involved in the European
integration process due to some reasons. Georgia may hope just for
some insignificant funds as part of the Eastern Partnership Project
and implementation of some infrastructure projects. Ivanishvili's
coming to power will hardly change much in that area. Georgia is not
a priority for the EU. After the information campaign about violation
of human rights by the Georgian authorities, in Brussels they will
be happy to see a businessman replacing the strange and unpredictable
Georgian leader.
What changes can we expect in Armenian-Georgian relations now that
Georgian-Russian relations may change?
Some experts have already expressed concern that Armenia will no longer
have such big part in Russia's policy in the South Caucasus in case the
relations of Tbilisi and Moscow are normalized. Nevertheless, a major
breakthrough in these relations is hardly possible. So, nothing will
change significantly. As for the relations of Tbilisi and Yerevan,
there are hopes that Bidzina Ivanishvili's policy will be based on
certain mutually advantageous economic interests of the two countries.
Georgia is the key transit country for both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
What geo-political transformations can we expect in the South Caucasus
following the change of power in Georgia?
Georgia is the key transit country for both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
However, I anticipate no serious geopolitical changes in the South
Caucasus with the change of power in Georgia. Azerbaijan will be
reluctant to use Georgia as a transport corridor like Armenia does.
What may change is Russia's influence on the negotiation processes
in the region, which will create more possibility also for Yerevan.
It is not a secret that Saakashvili's policy on Georgia's ethnic
minorities has been repeatedly criticized by the West. Do you expect
any changes in this field?
Georgian Dream enlisted big support of Adjara. Tere was certain
ethnonationalism in Saakashvili's policy. May be it was not as
tough as under Zviad Gamsakhurdia, but it was not insignificant. The
point is that whether that propaganda has had any serious impact on
the public opinion in Georgia. Presidential elections will be held
Georgia and this very perspective will determine Georgia's policy
for the coming year.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress