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On The Political Economy Of Georgian Parliamentary Polls

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  • On The Political Economy Of Georgian Parliamentary Polls

    ON THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF GEORGIAN PARLIAMENTARY POLLS

    Vestnik Kavkaza
    Oct 4 2012
    Russia

    by David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively for VK

    Agavni Karakhanyan, Director of the Institute of Public Society
    and Regional Development, told VK about changes and geopolitical
    alterations of Georgia in the South Caucasus Region after the
    elections.

    - Victory of Georgian Dream at the parliamentary elections in Georgia
    means upcoming changes in the country. What changes should Armenia and
    Georgia expect in the light of changes in Georgian-Russian relations?

    - The mentioned changes in Russian-Georgian relations are not so
    obvious. I disagree with the idea that victory of opposition in
    Georgia would bring radical changes in foreign policy. What grounds
    do we have to expect changes? Only persistently built up thesis
    about a new player on the Georgian political field Ivanishvili as a
    "Kremlin project?" The topic of "Russian footprints" of Ivanishvili
    was dropped on the field of electoral political battles by Georgian
    authorities and has no documental proof, it was verbal, that is
    messages of opposition leader and his supporters about the coalition's
    "restoration of diplomatic relations with Russia and will solve the
    problem with Russia for sure". But if many see "Russian recurrent
    tunes" in these statements, why isn't the "transoceanic connection"
    so obvious? This provokes an analogue with the "American dream"
    of Georgian. During the electoral campaign, the opposition leader
    emphasized prospects of cooperation with the US and Europe on many
    occasions, stressing on the fact that he "quit his business in Russia
    for the sake of freedom of Georgia". But there are reasons to believe
    that Saakashvili would not just give up his power. He is seen off too
    early. His team has not expired its political potential. Although the
    society is disappointed and tired of the same people, Saakashvili's
    party has a resource of power it may fully use until the presidential
    elections. No surprise, Saakashvili said in his video message that
    he was planning to assist the parliamentary majority in electing the
    prime minister and forming a new government. For example, there is
    the official admission of defeat which will surely be followed by
    congratulations for the former political opponent "who will take the
    fate of Georgia in his hands with hopesfor further democratization and
    the course for integration in Europe and NATO. I believe Ivanishvili
    will take the lead, but the electoral promises, as it often happens,
    would be forgotten. Nothing spoils opposition as much as power. So
    let's not be hasty. Let's wait.

    - Acknowledgement of the fact that all problems of South Ossetia and
    Abkhazia caused by the nationalistic pro-American course of Mikheil
    Saakashvili develops. What prospects of mutually acceptable settlement
    of conflicts do you expect with the change of power in Georgia?

    - I would like to warn against over-exaggerated expectations in this
    issue. The harsh, unconstructive policy of Saakashvili towards South
    Ossetia and Abkhazia pushed them away from Georgian influence, it is
    a fact. Regarding changes in this policy, lack of a political program
    of the opposition bloc forces us to focus on the electoral rhetoric
    of its leaders. There is not a hint in declarations that Georgia was
    planning to "free" Abkhazia and South Ossetia and not considering them
    part of its territory. It is hard to imagine victorious opposition to
    announce that now, when it has taken power. Lack of harsh nationalistic
    rhetoric and systemless of the oppositionist bloc which will most
    likely split, does not mean that opposition leaders are unfamiliar
    with the sense and understanding of national interests.

    When developing policy for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the best
    formula is that the problem remains, but relations develop. Such
    serious issues are not resolved instantly. It takes time. With
    account of the fact that the process is bilateral, the position of
    the opposite side of conflicts cannot be neglected. For example,
    Saakashvili is more suitable for Abkhazians, because chances that he
    will find common grounds with Moscow are minimal.

    - On September 23, the leader of the Georgian Dream said that his
    coalition was considering restoration of railway and road connection
    with Abkhazia. The declaration is of great interest for Armenia. What
    are its prospects after the victory of the bloc at the elections on
    October 1?

    - It is hard to overestimate the role of restoring communications
    with Abkhazia for Armenia. It would not be an exaggeration to say
    that opening railway and road connection through Abkhazia will be
    vital for our country. Talks and projects on restoration of old
    communications in the region were numerous. But the "railway cordon"
    on this way formed by the Georgian president cannot be broken yet. I
    remind that one of supporters of opening railway connection through
    Abkhazia is Turkey, a rapidly growing economy interested in direct
    access to Russian markets, better to say the southern markets of
    Russia. It may only be realized with restoration of communications
    through Armenia, restoration of the Kars-Gyumri Railway line.

    - Russia and Iran will soon sign an agreement on construction of the
    Kazvin-Resht-Astara Railway. Besides the RR, Azerbaijani Railways and
    Iranian Railways are taking part in the project. Have the elections
    results in Georgia introduced their changes to the geopolitical
    project?

    - It is all not that simple. The Communication corridor is always
    essential for Moscow and Tehran, because this is not a matter of
    economic pay-off, but strategic dividends. In this context, any
    communication project is justified. The fact that any strategic route
    would bypass Armenia is a matter of concerns of Yerevan only. It
    is hard to imagine a situation where any regional player would quit
    strategic calculations and projects just because someone else does
    not fit in it. And finally, I would not link relate changes of the
    North-South Corridor's direction and Armenian involvement in the
    project with the switch of power in Georgia. The switch of power
    presupposes certain offset of accents, maybe priorities, but not
    scrapping of state interests.

    - Georgia is the key transit state for Armenia and Azerbaijan. What
    geopolitical transformations in South Caucasus should be expected
    with the switch of power in Georgia?

    - Geopolitical transformations in South Caucasus are relation to
    possible changes of political economy in foreign affairs of Georgia
    associated with the personality and achievements of the opposition
    leader and upcoming prime minister. Possible changes of communications
    of Georgia and Abkhazia are realistic and have the right for existence,
    because they are base on economic pragmatism, interest, experience of
    the future prime minister as a businessman and prospect of economic
    configuration of the region. Economic motivation of Ivanishvili as a
    financial and business activist will affect political decisions. We
    have the right to expect new readings of foreign economic policy of
    Georgia in the region and scrapping of the harsh policy of isolation
    of conflict republics and stress on transit dividends of the current
    authorities of Georgia. With doubtless disappointment of Azerbaijan
    with smoothening of Georgia of harsh isolation of Abkhazia and South
    Ossetia, Turkish support of plans to restore communications in South
    Caucasus should not be ruled out.

    Armenia will be inevitably involved in the adjusted format of economic
    relations of the region.

    http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/32174.html




    From: A. Papazian
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