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WHAT IS KOCHARYAN WAITING FOR?
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments27646.html
Published: 17:44:16 - 08/10/2012
As the presidential election is drawing nearer, rumors on Robert
Kocharyan's nomination intensify. In this context, the participation
of Prosperous Armenia in the election is mostly discussed. However,
observations on Robert Kocharyan's participation, namely his
nomination, are a little exaggerated.
And not only because Kocharyan thinks he has little chance to win
and he will not run in the presidential election until he has 100%
confidence.
Before the reason, one should ask the question whether Robert Kocharyan
would like to be a president at all.
The question seems to have a simple answer - yes. But it is not
that simple.
No matter how much Robert Kocharyan loves power, he wants to enjoy
life ahead of old age with the wealth he has accumulated during the
years he was in government. He needs to be in government to save
what he has gained. His wealth cannot be guaranteed in a country
which lacks sovereignty, equality before law, independent judiciary,
constitutional order, all the more so, the wealth gained in such
conditions cannot be guaranteed.
On top of all, the regional and world developments make Armenia
face certain internal and external obligations, whereas outside
the government the risk to one's property and even private security
increases.
After all, the point is not that Serzh Sargsyan may "betray" Robert
Kocharyan, and Kocharyan does not trust him so he has fears. Or the
problem is not that Kocharyan doubts Serzh Sargsyan's willingness to
save him and the system and is afraid that Sargsyan will let him down.
Kocharyan knows that Serzh Sargsyan may have to face this dilemma. In
addition, Robert Kocharyan may face this dilemma too if we replace
them with each other and assume that Kocharyan is the third president,
and Serzh Sargsyan is the ex-president.
The system of governance has led them to this situation. They have
shaped this system but they are objectively deprived of external
support and protection. The external setting is changing essentially,
and demands and expectations from Armenia change accordingly.
Armenia is in a stage of transition. If the problem were internal, a
tight fist would be enough to rule. However, the source of this stage
of transition is external so the impact on transition is small. In
this situation, Robert Kocharyan would rather like Serzh Sargsyan
hold the stirring wheel because in the inevitable stage of change of
system all the demands, risks, dissatisfaction of the system will be
addressed to Serzh Sargsyan, while Robert Kocharyan will be missed.
This is a highly subjective reality because all those dissatisfied,
frightened, concerned do not care for the objective subtleties and
inevitable turns of the situation. They only care for their own
welfare, and so does Robert Kocharyan.
However, unlike them, Kocharyan understands the situation better and
he knows it is good that he is missed. He knows he should let them
miss him. In other words, in case of direct or indirect return Robert
Kocharyan will have to work towards destroying the system otherwise
it will be deprived of any resource for survival.
Robert Kocharyan is not trying to come to power but to be the only or
the most efficient alternative to Serzh Sargsyan by the presidential
election 2018 when Serzh Sargsyan will have to leave office. Second,
the president knows by that time inevitable changes will take place
in Armenia in this transition stage which will be painful for not only
the system but also for Serzh Sargsyan. That is why Kocharyan does not
want to be the person who will have to implement those painful changes.
However, the situation is full of risk because to make change means to
be the victim of change. It is hard to tell what is more dangerous and
risky. However, there is no doubt that change will be an extenuating
circumstance.
The situation regarding Robert Kocharyan is complicated and is a
vicious circle. Serzh Sargsyan has started the process or the process
began during his office so Kocharyan has no way out but to wait for
the end of some stage. Otherwise, if the attempt to come to power
succeeds, the nostalgia of the system will come down in hail stones.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments27646.html
Published: 17:44:16 - 08/10/2012
As the presidential election is drawing nearer, rumors on Robert
Kocharyan's nomination intensify. In this context, the participation
of Prosperous Armenia in the election is mostly discussed. However,
observations on Robert Kocharyan's participation, namely his
nomination, are a little exaggerated.
And not only because Kocharyan thinks he has little chance to win
and he will not run in the presidential election until he has 100%
confidence.
Before the reason, one should ask the question whether Robert Kocharyan
would like to be a president at all.
The question seems to have a simple answer - yes. But it is not
that simple.
No matter how much Robert Kocharyan loves power, he wants to enjoy
life ahead of old age with the wealth he has accumulated during the
years he was in government. He needs to be in government to save
what he has gained. His wealth cannot be guaranteed in a country
which lacks sovereignty, equality before law, independent judiciary,
constitutional order, all the more so, the wealth gained in such
conditions cannot be guaranteed.
On top of all, the regional and world developments make Armenia
face certain internal and external obligations, whereas outside
the government the risk to one's property and even private security
increases.
After all, the point is not that Serzh Sargsyan may "betray" Robert
Kocharyan, and Kocharyan does not trust him so he has fears. Or the
problem is not that Kocharyan doubts Serzh Sargsyan's willingness to
save him and the system and is afraid that Sargsyan will let him down.
Kocharyan knows that Serzh Sargsyan may have to face this dilemma. In
addition, Robert Kocharyan may face this dilemma too if we replace
them with each other and assume that Kocharyan is the third president,
and Serzh Sargsyan is the ex-president.
The system of governance has led them to this situation. They have
shaped this system but they are objectively deprived of external
support and protection. The external setting is changing essentially,
and demands and expectations from Armenia change accordingly.
Armenia is in a stage of transition. If the problem were internal, a
tight fist would be enough to rule. However, the source of this stage
of transition is external so the impact on transition is small. In
this situation, Robert Kocharyan would rather like Serzh Sargsyan
hold the stirring wheel because in the inevitable stage of change of
system all the demands, risks, dissatisfaction of the system will be
addressed to Serzh Sargsyan, while Robert Kocharyan will be missed.
This is a highly subjective reality because all those dissatisfied,
frightened, concerned do not care for the objective subtleties and
inevitable turns of the situation. They only care for their own
welfare, and so does Robert Kocharyan.
However, unlike them, Kocharyan understands the situation better and
he knows it is good that he is missed. He knows he should let them
miss him. In other words, in case of direct or indirect return Robert
Kocharyan will have to work towards destroying the system otherwise
it will be deprived of any resource for survival.
Robert Kocharyan is not trying to come to power but to be the only or
the most efficient alternative to Serzh Sargsyan by the presidential
election 2018 when Serzh Sargsyan will have to leave office. Second,
the president knows by that time inevitable changes will take place
in Armenia in this transition stage which will be painful for not only
the system but also for Serzh Sargsyan. That is why Kocharyan does not
want to be the person who will have to implement those painful changes.
However, the situation is full of risk because to make change means to
be the victim of change. It is hard to tell what is more dangerous and
risky. However, there is no doubt that change will be an extenuating
circumstance.
The situation regarding Robert Kocharyan is complicated and is a
vicious circle. Serzh Sargsyan has started the process or the process
began during his office so Kocharyan has no way out but to wait for
the end of some stage. Otherwise, if the attempt to come to power
succeeds, the nostalgia of the system will come down in hail stones.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress