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GEORGIA: IS TBILISI SETTING POLITICAL BENCHMARK FOR AZERBAIJAN, ARMENIA?
Eurasia Review
Oct 9 2012
By Shain Abbasov and Marianna Grigoryan
Last time, Georgians did it via revolution. This time, political
change came through the ballot box.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's concession of Georgia's
October 1 parliamentary election to his political foes, the Georgian
Dream coalition headed by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, is giving
two of the country's neighbors, Armenia and Azerbaijan, a fresh reason
to pay attention to Georgia.
Opposition forces in both countries appear to see the election's
outcome as a model for political change, even as their respective
governments - neither a civil-rights trendsetter - stress that the
reason for change is minimal.
Georgia
"Many people here in the National Assembly Hall used to mock
Saakashvili for eating his tie," Vahan Hovhanissian, a member of
the opposition Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun,
commented in Armenia's parliament on October 2, "but he has created a
country where the opposition can win." Hovhanissian was referring to
an infamous moment involving Saakashvili during the Georgian-Russian
war in 2008.
Azerbaijani opposition leaders agree. "These elections are an important
event not only for Georgia, but for the whole South Caucaus and
even the post-Soviet region," said Isa Gambar, head of Azerbaijan's
Musavat Party. "It's the first time in our region when the opposition
officially scores a victory in elections and the government accepts
it."
That acceptance, agreed Ali Kerimli, head of the Popular Front Party
of Azerbaijan, "is the biggest victory in the Georgian president's
political career."
So far, though, the governments of both Azerbaijan and Armenia have
been much more circumspect in responding to the Georgian election
results. Neither Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev nor Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan has congratulated the Georgian Dream on
its win.
But, then, neither has much personal incentive to do so.
Aliyev, who plans to run for reelection in October 2013, arguably
owes his nearly decade in power to the political legacy of his father,
the late President Heydar Aliyev, a fixture on Azerbaijan's political
scene since the Soviet era.
Sargsyan, who also plans to run for reelection next year, owes much
of his status to his nearly 20 years in the Armenian government -
including stints as prime minister and defense minister.
Working with the opposition has not been a critical part of either
leader's political experience.
Perhaps for that reason, what Azerbaijani and Armenian government
comments there have been about the Georgian elections have come more
in the way of asserting both countries' own democratic credentials.
In an October 3 interview with the opposition Yeni Musavat newspaper,
Ali Hasanov, the influential head of the Azerbaijani presidential
administration's Political and Public Affairs Department, asserted
that Azerbaijan's presidential vote will prove "even better ... than
[the parliamentary elections] in Georgia."
"No one should have any doubts," Hasanov assured readers.
The remark sparked a steady stream of caustic commentary in the
opposition press. "We have doubts, Mr. Hasanov. We have enough reasons
to have doubts," responded the opposition Azadlig (Liberty) newspaper
the next day. To date, international observers have not recognized
Azerbaijan's elections as free or fair.
Similarly, in Armenia, Deputy Parliamentary Speaker Eduard Sharmazanov,
spokesperson for the governing Republican Party of Armenia, maintained
that the country has no reason to take its cue from Georgia. "In
terms of democracy, Armenia does not take second place to Georgia,"
Sharmazanov told EurasiaNet.org. "Moreover, [Armenia] is one of the
most democratic countries of the region."
In 2012, Washington, DC-based democracy-watcher Freedom House gave
both Armenia and Azerbaijan similarly low evaluations for political
rights and civil liberties, tagging Armenia as "partly free" and
Azerbaijan as "not free."
While scoring better in both categories, Georgia also ranked as only
"partly free."
Nonetheless, that slight degree of difference makes a difference
for Azerbaijan's Kerimli and Gambar. The Aliyev administration would
never allow free elections, and then admit defeat, both men said.
The Azerbaijani presidential administration's Hasanov, though, asserts
that the Azerbaijani opposition lacks the skills to duplicate Georgian
Dream's victory at the polls.
"I believe that the Azerbaijani opposition is not capable of running
such a campaign [as the Georgian Dream] and winning the elections,"
he said.
Comparing its finances to those of billionaire Ivanishvili,
Azerbaijan's opposition might well agree, but Aliyev critics still
place most of the blame on government repression.
Political analyst Elhan Shahinoglu, head of the Baku research center
Atlas, believes Azerbaijan's opposition can learn from Georgia's
election.
Though not a prominent public figure, Ivanishvili managed to unite
the Georgian opposition and voters around his coalition quickly,
Shahinoglu noted. "[E]verything is possible if the Azerbaijani
opposition has real will and is ready to work hard," he said.
In Armenia, opposition leaders believe they faces similar stumbling
blocks. Naira Zohrabian, parliamentary-faction secretary for the
Prosperous Armenia party, a onetime government coalition member,
charges that the police-protester clashes and arrests of opposition
supporters after Armenia's 2008 presidential elections do not suggest
that the country's February 2013 presidential vote can follow the
Georgian model.
"I hope that one day we will have such elections, but I can clearly
state that it would be pointless to dream about it in the upcoming
elections, since the Armenian authorities have no political will
[for such a vote]," Zohrabian asserted.
Sharamazanov dismissed the criticism. "Is it our fault that the people
trust us and vote for us?" he asked.
Independent political analyst Yervand Bozoian said Armenian
politicians can "learn from Georgia" - from its aggressive fight
against corruption, as well as its maiden attempt at bipartisanship.
"[I]f Armenians consider themselves smarter than Georgians, they
should seize the initiative and initiate reforms in Armenia," Bozoian
said. "Learning is not shameful."
Shahin Abbasov is a freelance reporter based in Baku. Marianna
Grigoryan is a freelance reporter in Yerevan and the editor of
MediaLab.am.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/09102012-georgia-is-tbilisi-setting-political-benchmark-for-azerbaijan-armenia/
From: Baghdasarian
Eurasia Review
Oct 9 2012
By Shain Abbasov and Marianna Grigoryan
Last time, Georgians did it via revolution. This time, political
change came through the ballot box.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's concession of Georgia's
October 1 parliamentary election to his political foes, the Georgian
Dream coalition headed by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, is giving
two of the country's neighbors, Armenia and Azerbaijan, a fresh reason
to pay attention to Georgia.
Opposition forces in both countries appear to see the election's
outcome as a model for political change, even as their respective
governments - neither a civil-rights trendsetter - stress that the
reason for change is minimal.
Georgia
"Many people here in the National Assembly Hall used to mock
Saakashvili for eating his tie," Vahan Hovhanissian, a member of
the opposition Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun,
commented in Armenia's parliament on October 2, "but he has created a
country where the opposition can win." Hovhanissian was referring to
an infamous moment involving Saakashvili during the Georgian-Russian
war in 2008.
Azerbaijani opposition leaders agree. "These elections are an important
event not only for Georgia, but for the whole South Caucaus and
even the post-Soviet region," said Isa Gambar, head of Azerbaijan's
Musavat Party. "It's the first time in our region when the opposition
officially scores a victory in elections and the government accepts
it."
That acceptance, agreed Ali Kerimli, head of the Popular Front Party
of Azerbaijan, "is the biggest victory in the Georgian president's
political career."
So far, though, the governments of both Azerbaijan and Armenia have
been much more circumspect in responding to the Georgian election
results. Neither Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev nor Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan has congratulated the Georgian Dream on
its win.
But, then, neither has much personal incentive to do so.
Aliyev, who plans to run for reelection in October 2013, arguably
owes his nearly decade in power to the political legacy of his father,
the late President Heydar Aliyev, a fixture on Azerbaijan's political
scene since the Soviet era.
Sargsyan, who also plans to run for reelection next year, owes much
of his status to his nearly 20 years in the Armenian government -
including stints as prime minister and defense minister.
Working with the opposition has not been a critical part of either
leader's political experience.
Perhaps for that reason, what Azerbaijani and Armenian government
comments there have been about the Georgian elections have come more
in the way of asserting both countries' own democratic credentials.
In an October 3 interview with the opposition Yeni Musavat newspaper,
Ali Hasanov, the influential head of the Azerbaijani presidential
administration's Political and Public Affairs Department, asserted
that Azerbaijan's presidential vote will prove "even better ... than
[the parliamentary elections] in Georgia."
"No one should have any doubts," Hasanov assured readers.
The remark sparked a steady stream of caustic commentary in the
opposition press. "We have doubts, Mr. Hasanov. We have enough reasons
to have doubts," responded the opposition Azadlig (Liberty) newspaper
the next day. To date, international observers have not recognized
Azerbaijan's elections as free or fair.
Similarly, in Armenia, Deputy Parliamentary Speaker Eduard Sharmazanov,
spokesperson for the governing Republican Party of Armenia, maintained
that the country has no reason to take its cue from Georgia. "In
terms of democracy, Armenia does not take second place to Georgia,"
Sharmazanov told EurasiaNet.org. "Moreover, [Armenia] is one of the
most democratic countries of the region."
In 2012, Washington, DC-based democracy-watcher Freedom House gave
both Armenia and Azerbaijan similarly low evaluations for political
rights and civil liberties, tagging Armenia as "partly free" and
Azerbaijan as "not free."
While scoring better in both categories, Georgia also ranked as only
"partly free."
Nonetheless, that slight degree of difference makes a difference
for Azerbaijan's Kerimli and Gambar. The Aliyev administration would
never allow free elections, and then admit defeat, both men said.
The Azerbaijani presidential administration's Hasanov, though, asserts
that the Azerbaijani opposition lacks the skills to duplicate Georgian
Dream's victory at the polls.
"I believe that the Azerbaijani opposition is not capable of running
such a campaign [as the Georgian Dream] and winning the elections,"
he said.
Comparing its finances to those of billionaire Ivanishvili,
Azerbaijan's opposition might well agree, but Aliyev critics still
place most of the blame on government repression.
Political analyst Elhan Shahinoglu, head of the Baku research center
Atlas, believes Azerbaijan's opposition can learn from Georgia's
election.
Though not a prominent public figure, Ivanishvili managed to unite
the Georgian opposition and voters around his coalition quickly,
Shahinoglu noted. "[E]verything is possible if the Azerbaijani
opposition has real will and is ready to work hard," he said.
In Armenia, opposition leaders believe they faces similar stumbling
blocks. Naira Zohrabian, parliamentary-faction secretary for the
Prosperous Armenia party, a onetime government coalition member,
charges that the police-protester clashes and arrests of opposition
supporters after Armenia's 2008 presidential elections do not suggest
that the country's February 2013 presidential vote can follow the
Georgian model.
"I hope that one day we will have such elections, but I can clearly
state that it would be pointless to dream about it in the upcoming
elections, since the Armenian authorities have no political will
[for such a vote]," Zohrabian asserted.
Sharamazanov dismissed the criticism. "Is it our fault that the people
trust us and vote for us?" he asked.
Independent political analyst Yervand Bozoian said Armenian
politicians can "learn from Georgia" - from its aggressive fight
against corruption, as well as its maiden attempt at bipartisanship.
"[I]f Armenians consider themselves smarter than Georgians, they
should seize the initiative and initiate reforms in Armenia," Bozoian
said. "Learning is not shameful."
Shahin Abbasov is a freelance reporter based in Baku. Marianna
Grigoryan is a freelance reporter in Yerevan and the editor of
MediaLab.am.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/09102012-georgia-is-tbilisi-setting-political-benchmark-for-azerbaijan-armenia/
From: Baghdasarian