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PUTIN POLITICS: RUSSIAN PRESIDENT'S EXPECTED VISIT LIKELY TO INFLUENCE DECISIONS IN YEREVAN
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow
12.10.12 | 11:29
Several Armenian media, citing their sources, report the visit to
Armenia by Russian President Vladimir Putin, which was originally
said to have been scheduled for mid-September, will take place in
late October or early November.
The Russian leader's visit was first announced in the summer by
the director of the CIS Institute Konstantin Zatulin, who said that
Putin will attend Collective Security Treaty Organization exercises in
Armenia held in September. The Kremlin had neither denied nor confirmed
that information, leaving Armenian experts guessing afterwards why
Putin did not come to Armenia.
Now the discussion is centered around the entourage of President Putin
on his possible visit to Armenia as well as what he will actually
be bringing to Armenia. The price of natural gas remains high on the
agenda of Armenian-Russian talks.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolay Azarov said recently that his country
was asked to join the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan
and offered as a "reward" a reduction of natural gas prices down
to $160 per cubic meter. Otherwise, the price of this fuel would
fluctuate around $440. Azarov said that Russia could thus lose its
largest buyer of gas; he did not agree that his country should join
the Customs Union.
One should assume that the same proposal will be made to Armenia.
Armenia's Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Armen Movsisyan
acknowledged that the negotiations on the gas price with Russia
are still continuing. And experts believe that Russia will offer to
maintain or even reduce prices for Armenia if the latter agrees to
integrate with the Eurasian Community, a new integration process in
the post-Soviet space initiated by the Russian president and expected
to get its flesh and bones by 2015.
Another issue that is almost certainly going to be discussed during
Putin's likely Yerevan meetings will be the upcoming elections
in Armenia. Soon it will be the stage of nomination of candidates
for president in Armenia, and the Kremlin has not yet expressed its
preference on the candidates. In Armenia, the guessing game is around
whether Putin will extend his support to the incumbent president,
Serzh Sargsyan, or will back Robert Kocharyan, the former president.
The Haykakan Zhamanak daily writes that Putin will bring with him
to Armenia Karen Karapetyan, a former mayor of Yerevan and ex-CEO
of ArmRosgazprom, a Russian-Armenian joint venture distributing
natural gas in Armenia. At present, Karapetyan is deputy manager of
Gazprombank in Moscow. The Russia-connected top manager is tipped
as a possible prime minister in Armenia, and the paper assumes it is
the prime minister's post and not that of president that Putin will
be talking about during his visit to Armenia.
However, there is still one remarkable circumstance that could change
everything. On October 10 Putin unexpectedly canceled his visit to
Turkey, which was originally scheduled for October 14-15. The very
next day Turkey intercepted a Syrian civilian aircraft operating
a flight from Moscow to Damascus. Turkish air force jets made the
Syrian plane land to be searched. Ankara insists component parts for
prohibited weapons were found on board the civil aircraft.
Experts rushed to describe the incident as a sign of damaged
relations between Turkey and Russia, which have been developing quite
incrementally of late. The possible reason for the souring relations is
the escalating situation around Syria and Turkey's possible invasion
of this embattled country. In Yerevan there has been a traditional
concern that well-developing Russo-Turkish relations could come at
the expense of Armenia. In particular, Russia, on the initiative
of Turkey, could insist on the return of some territories around
Karabakh to Azerbaijan, it does not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh, has
not contributed to the opening of an airport in Stepanakert, and so on.
The Turkish factor may also be crucial in what Putin offers to
Armenia. In particular, Russia may want to strengthen its military
base in Armenia that guards the border with Turkey.
Whether the allied relations between Yerevan and Moscow grow in the
future will also depend on the further course of the Russia-Turkey row.
If things around Syria develop according to their recent scenario,
Turkey is likely to invade the Middle Eastern country, which will
ultimately damage its ties with Moscow and create a new international
situation for Yerevan.
From: Baghdasarian
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow
12.10.12 | 11:29
Several Armenian media, citing their sources, report the visit to
Armenia by Russian President Vladimir Putin, which was originally
said to have been scheduled for mid-September, will take place in
late October or early November.
The Russian leader's visit was first announced in the summer by
the director of the CIS Institute Konstantin Zatulin, who said that
Putin will attend Collective Security Treaty Organization exercises in
Armenia held in September. The Kremlin had neither denied nor confirmed
that information, leaving Armenian experts guessing afterwards why
Putin did not come to Armenia.
Now the discussion is centered around the entourage of President Putin
on his possible visit to Armenia as well as what he will actually
be bringing to Armenia. The price of natural gas remains high on the
agenda of Armenian-Russian talks.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolay Azarov said recently that his country
was asked to join the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan
and offered as a "reward" a reduction of natural gas prices down
to $160 per cubic meter. Otherwise, the price of this fuel would
fluctuate around $440. Azarov said that Russia could thus lose its
largest buyer of gas; he did not agree that his country should join
the Customs Union.
One should assume that the same proposal will be made to Armenia.
Armenia's Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Armen Movsisyan
acknowledged that the negotiations on the gas price with Russia
are still continuing. And experts believe that Russia will offer to
maintain or even reduce prices for Armenia if the latter agrees to
integrate with the Eurasian Community, a new integration process in
the post-Soviet space initiated by the Russian president and expected
to get its flesh and bones by 2015.
Another issue that is almost certainly going to be discussed during
Putin's likely Yerevan meetings will be the upcoming elections
in Armenia. Soon it will be the stage of nomination of candidates
for president in Armenia, and the Kremlin has not yet expressed its
preference on the candidates. In Armenia, the guessing game is around
whether Putin will extend his support to the incumbent president,
Serzh Sargsyan, or will back Robert Kocharyan, the former president.
The Haykakan Zhamanak daily writes that Putin will bring with him
to Armenia Karen Karapetyan, a former mayor of Yerevan and ex-CEO
of ArmRosgazprom, a Russian-Armenian joint venture distributing
natural gas in Armenia. At present, Karapetyan is deputy manager of
Gazprombank in Moscow. The Russia-connected top manager is tipped
as a possible prime minister in Armenia, and the paper assumes it is
the prime minister's post and not that of president that Putin will
be talking about during his visit to Armenia.
However, there is still one remarkable circumstance that could change
everything. On October 10 Putin unexpectedly canceled his visit to
Turkey, which was originally scheduled for October 14-15. The very
next day Turkey intercepted a Syrian civilian aircraft operating
a flight from Moscow to Damascus. Turkish air force jets made the
Syrian plane land to be searched. Ankara insists component parts for
prohibited weapons were found on board the civil aircraft.
Experts rushed to describe the incident as a sign of damaged
relations between Turkey and Russia, which have been developing quite
incrementally of late. The possible reason for the souring relations is
the escalating situation around Syria and Turkey's possible invasion
of this embattled country. In Yerevan there has been a traditional
concern that well-developing Russo-Turkish relations could come at
the expense of Armenia. In particular, Russia, on the initiative
of Turkey, could insist on the return of some territories around
Karabakh to Azerbaijan, it does not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh, has
not contributed to the opening of an airport in Stepanakert, and so on.
The Turkish factor may also be crucial in what Putin offers to
Armenia. In particular, Russia may want to strengthen its military
base in Armenia that guards the border with Turkey.
Whether the allied relations between Yerevan and Moscow grow in the
future will also depend on the further course of the Russia-Turkey row.
If things around Syria develop according to their recent scenario,
Turkey is likely to invade the Middle Eastern country, which will
ultimately damage its ties with Moscow and create a new international
situation for Yerevan.
From: Baghdasarian