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PREEMPTION: A RESOLUTE DOCTRINE AGAINST A RESTIVE FOE
By Vilen Khlgatyan
http://times.am/?l=en&p=13826
Late last week Azerbaijani dictator, Ilham Aliyev, made it known that
he was displeased with the foreign oil consortium that is led by BP
for supposedly costing the Azerbaijani regime more than $8 billion
in lost revenue. The Azerbaijani-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) peaked in
2010, which as the main source of Azerbaijani income, is rightfully
considered a strategic asset. It is what has allowed them to carry out
their militarization over the past ten years as well as buy influence,
and bribe foreign officials.
With each passing year the desperation increases among regime
members, forcing them to adopt evermore hostile positions toward
Armenia, Artsakh, and Armenians in general so as to mask their failed
socio-political policies. Overlaying the peak at the ACG with hostile
attacks against Armenia militarily, diplomatically, and psychologically
since 2010 one can see a clear correlation.
Unfortunately, this trend will not only continue in the future but
increase as well.
The two most recent examples being the pardoning and promotion of the
axe-murder Ramil Safarov, and the foiled attempt to have the Armenian
National Security Service (NSS) send an Azerbaijani double agent to
conduct a terrorist attack in Baku.
The brutality of authoritarian rule coupled with an over reliance
on hydrocarbons to spur economic growth highlight the precarious
situation the regime in Baku finds itself in currently, and reveals
to outsiders the possibility that systemic stress may bring about
the collapse of the regime. For Armenia this means that provocations
will be on the rise and any one of them may cause an outburst which
may lead to a full scale resumption of hostilities.
Based on last months CSTO military exercises in Armenia, codenamed
"Cooperation 2012", and the Armenian Armed Forces own drills that
concluded last week, the Armenian government is taking the Azerbaijani
threat very seriously. Major-General Artak Davityan's statement that
the Armenian military is quite capable of launching missiles against a
"potential enemy" within a range of
300 kilometers or more was no idle threat.
The above statement may be, and if it is not, ought to be the first
of a series of Armenian pronouncements made to the public, domestic
and foreign, that Armenia reserves the right to preemptively attack
Azerbaijan should Armenia possess credible information that a full
scale Azerbaijani assault on Armenia or Artsakh is imminent.
This doctrine of preemption has two core aspects, the metaphysical
or psychological, and the physical or actual. In this context
metaphysical means the act of strategic deception so as to disrupt
the enemies' equilibrium and in the process mask one's intentions;
while the physical aspect refers to Armenia formally defining red
lines which if crossed by the enemy, will entail war. An example
of the latter are the threats official Baku has made over the past
year or so to shot down civilian planes taking off or landing at
Stepanakert Airport. Strategic deception is crucial because one
succeeds by keeping one's enemy uncertain about the situation and
one's intentions, and by delivering what he does not expect and has
therefore not prepared for. This is a military maxim that has held
true for thousands of years.
All interested parties to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan
know that once (and if) the Armenians cross over the Artsakh-Azerbaijan
line of contact it is a geographically flat path to Baku. Aliyev
understands his rule would end should Armenia win, therefore he will
be less likely to risk war with provocations should official Yerevan
draw clear and vocal lines in the sand. If the scandal over Safarov's
extradition ought to have taught us anything it is that the Azerbaijani
regime only respects and reacts to force, and that the international
community is unwilling to rein in Azerbaijani aggression.
Vilen Khlgatyan is the Vice-Chairman of Political Developments Research
Center (PDRC)
18.10.12, 11:31
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
By Vilen Khlgatyan
http://times.am/?l=en&p=13826
Late last week Azerbaijani dictator, Ilham Aliyev, made it known that
he was displeased with the foreign oil consortium that is led by BP
for supposedly costing the Azerbaijani regime more than $8 billion
in lost revenue. The Azerbaijani-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) peaked in
2010, which as the main source of Azerbaijani income, is rightfully
considered a strategic asset. It is what has allowed them to carry out
their militarization over the past ten years as well as buy influence,
and bribe foreign officials.
With each passing year the desperation increases among regime
members, forcing them to adopt evermore hostile positions toward
Armenia, Artsakh, and Armenians in general so as to mask their failed
socio-political policies. Overlaying the peak at the ACG with hostile
attacks against Armenia militarily, diplomatically, and psychologically
since 2010 one can see a clear correlation.
Unfortunately, this trend will not only continue in the future but
increase as well.
The two most recent examples being the pardoning and promotion of the
axe-murder Ramil Safarov, and the foiled attempt to have the Armenian
National Security Service (NSS) send an Azerbaijani double agent to
conduct a terrorist attack in Baku.
The brutality of authoritarian rule coupled with an over reliance
on hydrocarbons to spur economic growth highlight the precarious
situation the regime in Baku finds itself in currently, and reveals
to outsiders the possibility that systemic stress may bring about
the collapse of the regime. For Armenia this means that provocations
will be on the rise and any one of them may cause an outburst which
may lead to a full scale resumption of hostilities.
Based on last months CSTO military exercises in Armenia, codenamed
"Cooperation 2012", and the Armenian Armed Forces own drills that
concluded last week, the Armenian government is taking the Azerbaijani
threat very seriously. Major-General Artak Davityan's statement that
the Armenian military is quite capable of launching missiles against a
"potential enemy" within a range of
300 kilometers or more was no idle threat.
The above statement may be, and if it is not, ought to be the first
of a series of Armenian pronouncements made to the public, domestic
and foreign, that Armenia reserves the right to preemptively attack
Azerbaijan should Armenia possess credible information that a full
scale Azerbaijani assault on Armenia or Artsakh is imminent.
This doctrine of preemption has two core aspects, the metaphysical
or psychological, and the physical or actual. In this context
metaphysical means the act of strategic deception so as to disrupt
the enemies' equilibrium and in the process mask one's intentions;
while the physical aspect refers to Armenia formally defining red
lines which if crossed by the enemy, will entail war. An example
of the latter are the threats official Baku has made over the past
year or so to shot down civilian planes taking off or landing at
Stepanakert Airport. Strategic deception is crucial because one
succeeds by keeping one's enemy uncertain about the situation and
one's intentions, and by delivering what he does not expect and has
therefore not prepared for. This is a military maxim that has held
true for thousands of years.
All interested parties to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan
know that once (and if) the Armenians cross over the Artsakh-Azerbaijan
line of contact it is a geographically flat path to Baku. Aliyev
understands his rule would end should Armenia win, therefore he will
be less likely to risk war with provocations should official Yerevan
draw clear and vocal lines in the sand. If the scandal over Safarov's
extradition ought to have taught us anything it is that the Azerbaijani
regime only respects and reacts to force, and that the international
community is unwilling to rein in Azerbaijani aggression.
Vilen Khlgatyan is the Vice-Chairman of Political Developments Research
Center (PDRC)
18.10.12, 11:31
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress