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Ruben Safrastyan: Establishment Of Ceasefire In Syria Hardly Possibl

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  • Ruben Safrastyan: Establishment Of Ceasefire In Syria Hardly Possibl

    RUBEN SAFRASTYAN: ESTABLISHMENT OF CEASEFIRE IN SYRIA HARDLY POSSIBLE
    Nvard Davtyan

    "Radiolur"
    18:06 18.10.2012

    The proposal of the UN-Arab League envoy to Syria to establish
    ceasefire ahead of Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha is hard to implement,
    Director of the Oriental Studies Institute of the Armenian National
    Academy of Sciences Ruben Safrastyan says. According to him, the main
    problem lies in the lack of unity among the opposition forces. How
    should the authorities act in this situation? Which are the possible
    developments in the light of the envoy's proposal and new EU sanctions
    against Syria?

    Ruben Safrastyan describes the proposal to establish ceasefire ahead
    of the holiday of Eid al-Adha as "a simple game."

    As foreign media have reported, the opposition will agree to the
    ceasefire, if the authorities make the first step. Safrastyan
    considers that the establishment of armistice is hardly possible,
    first of all because of lack of unity inside the opposition. There
    is no common leadership, there are separate groups financed by
    different countries. "If the authorities see that the opposition is
    not taking joint actions, they will not make the first step, either,"
    Safrastyan said.

    Ruben Safrastyan says the proposal to deploy peacekeepers in Syria
    is interesting. He is inclined to think, however, that it won't be
    accepted either by the authorities or the opposition. According to him,
    both have overpassed threshold of possible compromises.

    Director of the Oriental Studies Institute considers that the European
    Union's new package of sanctions cannot have a serious influence on
    the settlement of the crisis, either. The new restrictions, of course,
    are aimed to weaken the powers of the authorities. He notes, however,
    that "according to the data of intelligence services and think tanks,
    Syria still has a huge potential to continue the struggle against
    the rebels."

    Safrastyan says Turkey's entry into Syria is quite possible. This
    can be seen from the Turkish policy towards that country, he said.

    "It will be first of all directed against the Kurdish organizations
    functioning in Syria. Turkey will thus try to solve an issue of
    geopolitical importance. By striking a blow to Syria Turkey will try
    to get rid of Syria as a geopolitical factor in the region. Second,
    Turkey will thus try to win the positive attitude of the West. With
    its attack Turkey will be attempting to shift the balance in favor
    of the opposition," Safrastyan said.

    There is also a fourth factor connected with the Armenian community
    of Aleppo. According to some data, Turkey is trying to stir chaos
    among Armenians and make them leave the country. Thus, it will get
    rid of Aleppo, an important religious, cultural and political center
    comprised of people, whose ancestors escaped the Genocide.

    Safrastyan does not predict large-scale military actions. Ankara's
    penetration will be restricted to the border regions, he says. The
    expert believes these actions of Turkey will earn the support of the
    West, but will not be welcomed inside the country. According to him,
    a strong opposition has been formed in the political and public
    circles of Turkey, which can affect the government's decision to
    enter or not to enter Syria.

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