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POLITICAL LIFE OF ARMENIA AROUND INTRIGUES
Vestnik Kavkaza
Oct 22 2012
Russia
Author: Interview by Susanna Petrosyan, exclusive to VK
A former senior advisor to the Armenian president on national security,
Ashot Manucharyan, answers the questions of VK about the situation
in Armenian internal policy on the eve of elections.
VK: The presidential electoral campaign is approaching. How would
you describe the political landscape of Armenia?
AM: If politics mean a certain understanding of society's structure
and the ways that lead to it, politics do not exist in Armenia.
Instead of parties we have structures that pursue their personal or
group interests. The victory or defeat of any of these powers does not
change the life of the society. Armenian political life is centered
around intrigues and not ideas.
VK: What in your opinion are the reasons for the lack of unity in the
opposition? How plausible is the appearance of a united opposition
candidate in the upcoming elections?
AM: In no country does the opposition unite, opposition forces
are always different. The problem is that there are no ideas. The
opposition has absolutely no ideology, like the ruling groups, and
like them has nothing to offer the country. The lack of unity is
connected to the lack of a unifying idea, unlike in 2008 when there
was an idea of constitutional order. This was the aim that united 18
opposition parties that supported one candidate - Levon Ter-Petrosyan.
But the previous ideas have been worked through. The division of
powers, market economy and the development of democracy does not sound
persuasive to the people and simply does not work today. And there are
no new milestones. It is necessary to note that the lack of a unifying
idea transformed the opposition, it became worse than it was 4-5 years
ago. Today every opposition force wants to get into power by itself
and to get its piece of the cake. Thus, in 2008 the ANC did not get
into power but it later used the atmosphere of the protests to get
seats in the National Assembly. Ordinary people, however, felt that
the opposition had made a compromise and solved the problem of deputy
mandates because of the protests. So to say, the ANC solved its own
problems instead of solving the problems of the people. In addition,
the structure of opposition does not correspond to our reality,
does not express the interests of particular social groups. Armenian
society is not as fragmented as the Armenian opposition.
VK: How would you describe the situation inside the ruling group? Four
months before the presidential elections, some representatives of
the ruling Republican party are confident that the current president
will win the elections. How would you estimate the chances of Serzh
Sargsyan?
AM: The apparent strength of the ruling power is based on the
weakness outside the power structures and the absence of severe social
challenges. In these respects Armenia is not very different from the
other post-Soviet countries. It is close to us and it is easier to
see this weakness. As for the chances of Serzh Sargsyan, they are
good, taking into account that there are no challenges. I do not,
however, exclude that in a community like ours these challenges might
appear,both from inside or from outside. The weakness of the government
and civil society make the country a polygon for different powers,
including those from abroad. At any moment that external power can
provoke any process, including direct mass action.
VK: Does this mean that at the coming presidential elections Armenia
can be influenced from abroad?
AM: Indeed, even more so, the external factor will dominate. Armenia,
as most countries of the post-Soviet space, is under a serious
external influence, or basically under foreign rule. The UK and
the US reached particular results in this field and increase their
influence in Armenia to imperatives. They are opposed by Russia,
which is acting way less effectively, and keeps losing its influence:
there are basically no more pro-Russian forces in Armenia. The West,
that as I said acts more successfully than Russia, uses very cunning
means - for instance, the political power X seems to be pro-Russian,
but in fact is pro-Western. Some political powers give oaths of loyalty
to Russia but in fact look to the West. This scheme works in Armenia
very well.
But the West is afraid of direct confrontation with Russia and tries
to show that Russian interests are kept. They are very cunning in
this respect. In Georgia the West works directly, in Armenia it is
a more sophisticated work. Because Russia sees Armenia as its sphere
of interest, and any rude action can provoke a touchy reaction from
Russia, and the West does not want that.
VK: You said that the external factor will dominate the elections.
What will be the role of the masses in the political processes?
AM: If the popular masses rise, it will be a problem for both the
internal and external players. Then the external powers will have
to consider it and make the controlled forces work to answer the
interests of the people. If the people rise, they alone will decide.
VK: You mentioned the degradation of the political field. What will
be the next stage? Can we expect this after the presidential elections?
AM: The next stage will be the formation of a new, real political
field. Now we are at the stage of the "merging" of the existing
political field. In fact, as I said, it is not even political, because
the parties work like corporations. This form is coming to an end. It
is not connected to the elections. It is important to note that the
entire process, including the decrease of the authority of the current
political powers, their degradation, is very rapid. This process is
based on value changes in the political structures and society. The
basic aim of the degrading system is a "golden calf. The people are
waiting for a power that will lead them beyond this life organization.
Public initiatives could become such a power, for instance the
initiative of Sardarapat, that is acquiring the character of a
political force, because there are more ideas behind it than behind
the political parties.
From: Baghdasarian
Vestnik Kavkaza
Oct 22 2012
Russia
Author: Interview by Susanna Petrosyan, exclusive to VK
A former senior advisor to the Armenian president on national security,
Ashot Manucharyan, answers the questions of VK about the situation
in Armenian internal policy on the eve of elections.
VK: The presidential electoral campaign is approaching. How would
you describe the political landscape of Armenia?
AM: If politics mean a certain understanding of society's structure
and the ways that lead to it, politics do not exist in Armenia.
Instead of parties we have structures that pursue their personal or
group interests. The victory or defeat of any of these powers does not
change the life of the society. Armenian political life is centered
around intrigues and not ideas.
VK: What in your opinion are the reasons for the lack of unity in the
opposition? How plausible is the appearance of a united opposition
candidate in the upcoming elections?
AM: In no country does the opposition unite, opposition forces
are always different. The problem is that there are no ideas. The
opposition has absolutely no ideology, like the ruling groups, and
like them has nothing to offer the country. The lack of unity is
connected to the lack of a unifying idea, unlike in 2008 when there
was an idea of constitutional order. This was the aim that united 18
opposition parties that supported one candidate - Levon Ter-Petrosyan.
But the previous ideas have been worked through. The division of
powers, market economy and the development of democracy does not sound
persuasive to the people and simply does not work today. And there are
no new milestones. It is necessary to note that the lack of a unifying
idea transformed the opposition, it became worse than it was 4-5 years
ago. Today every opposition force wants to get into power by itself
and to get its piece of the cake. Thus, in 2008 the ANC did not get
into power but it later used the atmosphere of the protests to get
seats in the National Assembly. Ordinary people, however, felt that
the opposition had made a compromise and solved the problem of deputy
mandates because of the protests. So to say, the ANC solved its own
problems instead of solving the problems of the people. In addition,
the structure of opposition does not correspond to our reality,
does not express the interests of particular social groups. Armenian
society is not as fragmented as the Armenian opposition.
VK: How would you describe the situation inside the ruling group? Four
months before the presidential elections, some representatives of
the ruling Republican party are confident that the current president
will win the elections. How would you estimate the chances of Serzh
Sargsyan?
AM: The apparent strength of the ruling power is based on the
weakness outside the power structures and the absence of severe social
challenges. In these respects Armenia is not very different from the
other post-Soviet countries. It is close to us and it is easier to
see this weakness. As for the chances of Serzh Sargsyan, they are
good, taking into account that there are no challenges. I do not,
however, exclude that in a community like ours these challenges might
appear,both from inside or from outside. The weakness of the government
and civil society make the country a polygon for different powers,
including those from abroad. At any moment that external power can
provoke any process, including direct mass action.
VK: Does this mean that at the coming presidential elections Armenia
can be influenced from abroad?
AM: Indeed, even more so, the external factor will dominate. Armenia,
as most countries of the post-Soviet space, is under a serious
external influence, or basically under foreign rule. The UK and
the US reached particular results in this field and increase their
influence in Armenia to imperatives. They are opposed by Russia,
which is acting way less effectively, and keeps losing its influence:
there are basically no more pro-Russian forces in Armenia. The West,
that as I said acts more successfully than Russia, uses very cunning
means - for instance, the political power X seems to be pro-Russian,
but in fact is pro-Western. Some political powers give oaths of loyalty
to Russia but in fact look to the West. This scheme works in Armenia
very well.
But the West is afraid of direct confrontation with Russia and tries
to show that Russian interests are kept. They are very cunning in
this respect. In Georgia the West works directly, in Armenia it is
a more sophisticated work. Because Russia sees Armenia as its sphere
of interest, and any rude action can provoke a touchy reaction from
Russia, and the West does not want that.
VK: You said that the external factor will dominate the elections.
What will be the role of the masses in the political processes?
AM: If the popular masses rise, it will be a problem for both the
internal and external players. Then the external powers will have
to consider it and make the controlled forces work to answer the
interests of the people. If the people rise, they alone will decide.
VK: You mentioned the degradation of the political field. What will
be the next stage? Can we expect this after the presidential elections?
AM: The next stage will be the formation of a new, real political
field. Now we are at the stage of the "merging" of the existing
political field. In fact, as I said, it is not even political, because
the parties work like corporations. This form is coming to an end. It
is not connected to the elections. It is important to note that the
entire process, including the decrease of the authority of the current
political powers, their degradation, is very rapid. This process is
based on value changes in the political structures and society. The
basic aim of the degrading system is a "golden calf. The people are
waiting for a power that will lead them beyond this life organization.
Public initiatives could become such a power, for instance the
initiative of Sardarapat, that is acquiring the character of a
political force, because there are more ideas behind it than behind
the political parties.
From: Baghdasarian